As the climate becomes warmer and drier, the dense, evergreen forests of the western Cascade Range are experiencing longer fire seasons, larger burns, and increased wildfire risk. A new story map explores the effects of climate change in the region and the goals of the Westside Fire Research Initiative, which is supporting the health, safety, and economic well-being of local communities.

Forest Service scientists found that warmer temperatures and drier conditions drove an eight-fold increase in annual area burned by high-severity fire across western forests since the mid-1980s. In total, annual area burned by high-severity wildfires—defined as those that kill more than 95% of trees—increased by more than 450,000 acres.

Extreme fire events are increasing with climate change, but predictive models typically use data averages, which limits their ability to forecast such extreme events. Forest Service scientists conducted the first study to model large-scale extreme wildfire events, which provides a foundation for improving future wildfire disaster predictions.

Nearly one-sixth of U.S. river basins are unable to consistently meet societal and environmental water demands. Water scarcity is expected to intensify as the climate changes. With this in mind, Forest Service researchers and their partners found that increasing the water productivity of certain crops could reduce water scarcity by up to 23%, with no impact on economic production.

Predicting Climate Change Impacts in the Central Sierra Nevada 

High-mountain ecosystems, like the Sierra Nevada, are uniquely sensitive to a changing climate and can provide early signals of significant climate-driven changes. Forest Service scientists created a decision-support tool for managers in a 2.4 million-acre area of the Tahoe-Central Sierra landscape in California and Nevada to support the development of a new, climate-conscious 20-year management plan.

Climate change vulnerability assessments synthesize scientific research to explore the impacts and consequences of climate change and possible management responses. The Forest Service's Office of Sustainability and Climate created an interactive story map that highlights the vulnerability assessments conducted on Forest Service-managed land across the country.  

The USDA Northwest Climate Hub launched a new quarterly podcast, These Lands, focused on the creative and engaging delivery of regionally-relevant climate change adaptation information. The podcast explores pressing climate adaptation issues and highlights useful resources, tools, and science geared towards practitioners and managers. 

For over 30 years, the Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has been the primary source of data on U.S. terrestrial carbon stocks. FIA data contributes to National Greenhouse Gas Inventory reporting to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change, forest sustainability reporting under the Montreal Process, carbon assessments across national forests and grasslands, the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report, and more.

Climate considerations were key in the development of a new seed collection zone map for the eastern United States. Forest Service scientists and partners with the Eastern Seed Zone Forum delineated 245 seed collection zones across 37 states. A promising application of the new zones is the ability to source seeds appropriately for expected future climate conditions to ensure long-term conservation success.

Wildlife species with overlapping habitat ranges can be affected in very different ways by climate-related habitat alterations. Forest Service scientists examined the habitat linkages of multiple wildlife species and incorporated projected land-use changes to help managers identify effective climate-informed conservation strategies for individual species.

Climate change is predicted to create warmer conditions overall, but uncertainties in local temperature and precipitation projections pose significant challenges to wildlife management. Forest Service scientists and partners are identifying ways to support managers facing climate challenges, which led to the recent creation of a framework for evaluating the effects of climate change on bird biodiversity.   

Forest Service scientists worked with their colleagues to develop a new tool to assess the adaptability of salmon and related fish to changing river conditions. Combining long-term records of river flow characteristics and fish behavior, the tool offers new insight into the ability of these fish to survive in a range of future river conditions.

Climate change can exacerbate existing threats, like invasive species. Not only can invasive species damage the environment, but they can also compromise local and regional economies and human health. Forest Service scientists are exploring the impacts of invasive species in forests and rangelands and developing strategies for restoring impacted landscapes. 

Forest Service scientists are providing information on the socioeconomic factors that influence climate change risk management. Combining projections of future flood risk with the capacity of local communities to bear the consequences, Forest Service scientists are supporting strategic forest management that can help mitigate the impacts of increased flooding on vulnerable communities in the future.

Forest Service scientists helped develop a rapid, reliable method to assess forest damage after wind disturbances using forest inventory and aerial survey data. This method was used to assess damage after the 2020 Midwest Derecho, where an estimated 2.67 million trees were damaged or killed on over 56,000 acres of forest land in Iowa and adjacent states. Photo by Staff Sgt. Jason Everett, U.S. Army National Guard

Forest Service scientists Louis Iverson, David L. Peterson, Ge Sun, and Christopher Woodall were included on the Reuters Hot List of influential climate change scientists. The news media organization considered three measures of scientific influence—number of publications, citations, and public reach—and identified 1,000 scientists from around the world with the greatest impact on climate change science.

There are ten regional USDA Climate Hubs, led and hosted by the Forest Service and Agricultural Research Service, along with other agency collaborators.

This month's newsletter provides a glimpse of some of the extensive climate science work we are conducting and the difference it is making in the resilience of our national forests and grasslands and communities. I also invite you to browse Research Improves Climate-Smart Management of America's Forests and Grasslands, a new report we just released that highlights our contributions that are helping the USDA—and the nation—move closer to achieving its climate and carbon goals.