Statewide COVID Concern Level: High

WI COVID deaths in last week: 9

December 8, 2022

Dear Friends:


I promised in Tuesday's newsletter to keep an eye on the data around respiratory illnesses in Wisconsin. I have, and the situation is concerning enough to justify a second email this week.


Let's do the takeaways first, and then the explanation:


  1. Things are bad nationwide, and signs point to them getting worse.
  2. Signals are more mixed in Wisconsin, but that could simply mean the wave is on its way.
  3. Much of this is driven by low rates of flu vaccination and COVID booster shots.
  4. The best thing people could do now—not tomorrow, not next week—is to get those shots. That's followed by staying home if they're sick, testing, and observing standard precautions (masking, social distancing, handwashing).


We'll have some resources below.


The longer version


It's bad nationwide

Travel and family gatherings over the Thanksgiving weekend have caused predictable spikes in COVID, flu and RSV levels. That in turn has resulted in a jump in hospitalization for COVID. It's also caused an alarming rise in hospitalizations for influenza: up 74% from the week before and the highest number in a decade.


The triple threat of COVID, flu and RSV puts a strain on hospitals around the nation. You can see what that looks like from this chart:

Chart showing hospitals running at high capacity, particularly for children

The pressure on pediatric hospitals is particularly worrisome because children require specialized care and can't simply be moved to adult units.


Wisconsin

Things aren't quite as grim at home, again as you can see in this chart:


Chart showing high-to-extremely-high levels of flu in the United States, December 2022

But two things are worth noting here. First, those purple and darkest red areas are not normal. They are extremely high, not something that happens every year.


Second, respiratory diseases move quickly from one part of the US to another. Historically, rises on the eastern seaboard are followed by increases in the midwest. Keep an eye on what's going on from Boston down to Washington D.C.


With that word of caution, COVID cases in Wisconsin are on a par with what we saw in early spring, much lower than the preceding Omicron surge. Positive test rates are somewhat higher, however, and hospitalizations have been creeping up since late spring.


There's good news in that RSV infections have been trending downward for the past couple of weeks. But flu and flu-like illnesses have been increasing sharply, more than fivefold since Halloween.


Vaccination

Like everywhere in the nation, the uptake rate on bivalent COVID booster shots in Wisconsin is very low, only 16% around the state. Even the leading counties (Ashland, Dane and Door) are somewhere below 30%. Flu vaccinations are higher, but still well below where experts would like them to be. Were these rates higher, we would see much lower transmission of both diseases.


All of this is a shame because both the COVID boosters and this year's flu vaccines are well-matched to the illnesses in circulation. That is, they're effective at preventing infection and severe illness for those who do get infected. (At the moment, there is no general vaccine for RSV, though one is in development for older adults.)


What to do?

It's time to communicate: We are fast approaching the deadline (December 10th) to receive COVID boosters that will be effective by Christmas. Given the fast increase in cases we've seen this season, people should also get a flu shot now.


Track the risk in your area and set your congregational policies for Christmas now. Let people know what those policies are ahead of time, including potential visitors for special services. (Don't forget our customizable mitigation table.)


Inform your community how to:


Last but not least, reinforce messages about staying home if you're sick, masking indoors, and washing hands frequently. You can find a longer list of recommendations in Tuesday's edition of our newsletter, in case you missed it. I've also created an album of new and vintage graphic resources if you need to drop something in your newsletter.


The time is upon us to face these issues directly. I'll be back next week with another update.


Stay safe and stay together,


Rev. Daniel Schultz

WCC Community Health

Program Director

Upcoming Clinics:


  • Casa de Oracion Adonai Inc, Milwaukee 12/10
  • St Anthony Catholic Church and St Hyacinth Catholic Parishes, Milwaukee 12/11
  • First Congregational UCC, Oshkosh 12/21
  • Cargill Methodist Church, Janesville 12/29


Clinics since 9/21: 241 Vaccinations since 9/21: 3304

The WCC Community Health Program Staff
Rev. Daniel Schultz
Community Health Program Director [email protected]
Angela Hicks
Small Metro Field Coordinator [email protected]
Eyon Biddle, Sr.
Milwaukee Field Coordinator [email protected]
Rev. Teresa Thomas-Boyd similing in a church.
Rev. Teresa Thomas-Boyd
Community COVID Solutions Field Coordinator
Angelica Espinoza
Outstate Field Coordinator
This is a dummy image inserted for the purpose of adjusting our newsletter layout. If you discover this message, send a COVID-related image to danschultz@wichurches.org and win a prize!

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