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Stocks Rally
The major U.S. indexes finished the week 3% to 4% higher as stocks regained traction following five consecutive weekly declines. Conflicts in the Middle East continued to drive the market, resulting in a rally on Tuesday and sizable intraday swings in a holiday-shortened trading week.
A rally on Tuesday accounted for most of the U.S. stock market’s overall weekly rise, with the three major indexes recording their biggest daily percentage gains since last May. The NASDAQ climbed 3.8%, the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, and the Dow added 2.5%.
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in March fell for the second month in a row, with both dropping around 5%. The Dow fell more than 5%, snapping a 10-month positive streak for that index. Over the first three months of 2026, all three indexes sustained their biggest quarterly decline in nearly four years.
Yields of U.S. government bonds slipped, snapping a four-week string of increases that had lifted the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury to its highest level in more than eight months. The 10-year yield finished the week at around 4.30%, down from 4.43% at the end of the previous week. Nevertheless, the yield remained well above a recent low of 3.96% on February 27.
Gold prices recovered some of the ground they had lost in March, though they remained well below the precious metal’s record high of around $5,500 per ounce set in late January. On Friday, gold was trading around $4,700, up nearly 4% for the week.
After two weeks of relative calm in global oil markets, geopolitical tensions escalated again, raising fresh concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil shipments in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz. U.S. crude was trading around $112 per barrel on Friday—the highest since mid-2022, and well above the $90 to $100 level that oil had traded in through most of March.
The U.S. economy generated 178,000 jobs in March, well above economists’ consensus expectations and rebounding from the previous month’s revised net loss of 133,000 jobs. The report—issued on Friday as the stock market closed for a holiday observance—also showed that the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4% the previous month.
With initial first-quarter earnings reports scheduled to begin coming out in mid-April, analysts are expecting that companies in the S&P 500 will report double-digit earnings growth for the sixth consecutive quarter. As of Thursday, analysts surveyed by FactSet were forecasting an average earnings growth rate of around 13.2%. Just a couple of weeks earlier, earnings were expected to rise just 12.5%.
Source: John Hancock Investment Management
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