Hello, Mallory’s birthday was in November and for her birthday she wanted to go to Savannah, GA, for a couple of days. November came and went and it didn’t happen for one reason or another. But we made time last week after Christmas to go south for a couple days. We stayed on the Savannah River and there’s a ferry that transports you up and down the river to historic sites on the riverwalk. We thought it might be a slower time of year to visit but we were surprised to see that a lot of other people were visiting too. We also had time for a quick visit to Tybee Island for Amelia to find some seashells. We're pictured below in front the Fountain at Forsyth Park in Savannah. It was created in 1858. Another view of the fountain is below.

We were reminded how challenging it can be travelling with young kids. Naturally, we were happy to get back home in time for New Year’s Eve. I think at this point our travel projections for this year are sparse! We discussed a staycation for Amelia’s Spring Break on the drive back home. Mallory captured a the picture below of the fountain.

You’ve probably heard by now that the government has been doing some projecting also. The Federal Reserve indicated that the economy has tightened enough (prices are coming down and inflation is dropping) so the Fed Chair stated interest rates may be coming down this year. This spurred the stock market to new highs to close out 2023 because the market prices events into its valuation before happenings transpire. If rates don’t get cut as projected it could spell bad news for the market. Innovator, one of our strategic partners, in its 2024 outlook stated, “While fears of a recession in 2023 proved premature, the market continues to underestimate the likelihood and impact of the Federal Reserve keeping rates higher for longer. Heading into a new year, we think the economy can still grow but acknowledge that the odds of a recession remain high. In our 2024 outlook, we outline our analysis of the conditions driving markets: The market is already pricing in four anticipated rate cuts starting early next year, but the risks of cutting before there is a sustained decrease in inflation, or spike in unemployment, are too great. The excess slack in the labor market still needs time to work its way out.” In other words, we aren’t out of the woods yet. You know my favorite part of the trip was the restaurants!

In fact, according to Yahoo Finance, “More big firms are likely to go bust next year amid the ‘double whammy’ of high borrowing costs and pressure on consumer budgets, according to insolvency experts… Official figures from the Insolvency Service earlier this month showed the total of company failures over the first 11 months of 2023 was more than reported during the entirety of 2022.” And we can’t forget legislative risk and the proxy wars we are part of in Israel and Ukraine. In what seems to be an escalation the U.S. Navy sunk Houthi militants’ vessels that were firing on a cargo ship. The militants are linked to Yemen and have stated their actions in the Red Sea that are disrupting trade from China are the result of Israel’s response to the events of the October 7th attack. Amelia celebrated her birthday on the last day of our trip. She created an artistic masterpiece at dinner.

We remain cautiously optimistic about the year ahead from an investing perspective, but I don’t think we can underestimate what could go wrong this year from a current events perspective. This is exacerbated given it’s an election year and the American electorate appears more divided than ever. So, how can you best position yourself in years like these? We believe it’s essential to have an all-weather-proof financial plan in retirement. In our 3 Roles of Money process we advocate for having ten years of bill-paying money stabilized as much as possible in retirement or when we get within five years of retirement. Buy why? Warren Buffet in his 1996 shareholders leader said, “If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes.” What he was advocating for is that it typically has taken the market ten years to recover from corrections in modern history. If we have a ten-year outlook, we can always be in a position to not have to sell in a down market. But how do we do that in retirement? If you’re like most of our clients you’ve worked for 30 to 45 years to save for retirement and the goal with savings is to use the funds to help supplement Social Security. How do we do that and maintain a long-term investing strategy? We section off ten years of funds and invest those stably so that when—not if—the market drops we can be insulated from losses as much as possible. Then we can have an all-weather-proof investing strategy. Our goal in creating the 3 Roles of Money process is to help our clients have more financial peace of mind in retirement. Would you like to talk more about this? You can reach us at 864.641.7955 or by responding to this email. Until next week, David C. Treece, Financial Planner 864.641.7955

Did you miss one of our last newsletters? Time To Rest: Click here She Was Thrilled: Click here A Walk In The Woods: Click here

Clients Excel, LLC is an independent financial services firm that utilizes a variety of investment and insurance products. Investment advisory services offered only by duly registered individuals through Creative One Wealth. Creative One Wealth and Clients Excel, LLC are not affiliated companies. Neither the firm nor its agents or representatives may give tax or legal advice. Individuals should consult with a qualified tax professional for guidance before making any purchasing decisions. Clients Excel, LLC is not affiliated with or endorsed by the U.S. Government or any governmental agency. Clients Excel, LLC has a strategic partnership with tax professionals and attorneys who can provide tax and/or legal advice. Published on 01.03.2024.