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Key Highlights
· The situation in Rakhine State should be closely watched in the coming days and weeks with the reports of possible renewed sectarian conflict targeting Rohingya Muslims. The concerns are raised as the reports indicate collaboration resumed between the junta and the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) in Northern Rakhine State in recent weeks. Rohingya communities could become a scapegoat once again for such a collaboration as they were in 2017.
· With the junta’s promise for an election is in a doldrum, and it has no solution on how to deal with rampant inflation in the country, it is expected that the junta will try to exploit the underlying ethnic crisis in Rakhine State to find a way out from the political crisis it created by itself.
· Also, as the junta lost battles across the country, they could exploit ethnic diversity in Rakhine State to create communal conflict to divert attention from the political crisis it created through the military coup of 2021.
· Like in many other parts of the country, Rakhine State needs urgent attention from international donors to address the humanitarian crisis unfolding in the country. A recent estimate from the United Nations indicates about a third of the country’s 51 million population needs urgent humanitarian assistance. The UN also indicated that more than 1.5 million people have been displaced since the coup.
· With the junta losing control of significant parts of the country to the People’s Defense Forces and the Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs), the junta alone has no authority to allow access to humanitarian assistance to the people who are in dire need.
· A report on the situation of the Rohingya community in Myanmar released by the UN Secretary-General on 14 August 2023 called for urgent humanitarian and community-based resilience support for the people of Myanmar, including the Rohingya Muslims.
· In recent months, the role of the local administration established in the areas under the control of different factions of the People's Defence Forces (PDF) has become more significant and their role in the distribution of humanitarian assistance has been cited in the report by the UN Secretary-General.
· Meanwhile, as the leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are to meet in early September for the last time under the leadership of Indonesia, many analysts review to what extent ASEAN has been able to achieve in dealing with the political crisis in Myanmar during the chairmanship by Jakarta.
· Many analysts would say the result has been close to zero and with the new chairman of ASEAN is to be passed on to Laos no proper action on Myanmar by ASEAN is expected at least for one year before Malaysia takes over the role from Laos in late 2024.
Context
There is a shocking but unsurprising revelation by a local media group Narinjara in late August over closer ties between the junta and the ARSA, which the junta declared as a terrorist group back in 2017.
According to a report by Narinjara released on 30 August, the junta helped the ARSA with weapons and even allowed them to travel to Buthidaung and Maungdaw Townships.
The report quoted a spokesperson of the Arkan Army (AA) U Khaing Thukha said that there have been some renewed activities of collaboration between the junta and ARSA.
“As far as we are concerned, I would like to inform you that we always keep a watchful eye on the situation of Buthidaung and Maungdaw areas and all kinds of activities by the junta forces and ARSA rebels” said U Khaing Thukha, quoted as saying in the Narinjara report.
It was also reported that ARSA rebels currently control some of the redundant junta camps which were previously occupied by the AA members at the peak of its fighting with the junta in 2021 and 2022.
The Narinjara report also said the ARSA is extorting money from local Muslims after threatening and even abducting Muslim businessmen. On some occasions they have even challenged AA members, the report said.
The junta and AA agreed to a gentlemen’s agreement for a ceasefire last November, which still seems to be holding.
The renewed contacts between the junta and ARSA have led analysts to raise concerns over two possible options the junta might be considering. They said (i) The junta may be pondering the option to resume conflict with AA with the help of ARSA and the backing of the Muslim population in Northern Rakhine State. The Rakhine Buddhists and Muslims are currently living peacefully side by side in the areas under the control of AA, or (ii) to
reignite sectarian violence in the state to weaken AA as well as to dent the unity among the opposition forces in which Muslims and Buddhist groups are working together.
In any option, the Rohingya community could become a pawn in the political game as was the case in the past.
According to the same Narinjara report, a veteran Rakhine politician U Pe Than issued a warning to Muslims and Rakhine Buddhist communities not to fall into the junta’s trap.
“We the Rakhine and Muslim people must be careful. As Muslims, we should live in the spirit of being together in our Arakan land with equal rights. Muslims should avoid participating in the activities of ARSA. Muslims and Rakhine people should live with the spirit of patriotism and love for each other. Let's not be used by the military council. We need to be watchful,” U Pe Than is quoted as saying in the Narinjara report.
As the political and conflict situation in Rakhine State becomes more complex so as the need for the humanitarian assistance for the communities suffered due to years of conflicts and natural disasters including cyclone Mocha which struck the Arakan coast in May this year.
The key humanitarian issue for Rakhine State remains the safe, voluntary return of nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh.
The situation in the camps in Bangladesh is increasingly stretched out which makes many refugees want to return to Myanmar should the conditions be conducive to their return and reintegration into the community.
In his annual report on Myanmar to be submitted to the UN General Assembly later this year the UN Secretary-General Mr. Antonio Guterres said “To create conditions conducive to the dignified and sustainable return of Rohingya refugees, structural issues related to citizenship and fundamental rights and freedoms, including equality before the law, must be addressed”.
“The people of Myanmar, including the Rohingya, are experiencing mounting vulnerabilities, further compounded by the devastation caused by Cyclone Mocha, and urgently require humanitarian and community-based resilience support,” the UN Secretary-General said in the advanced version of the report published on 14 August.
The scale of the current political, conflict and humanitarian situation in Myanmar is something the country has never experienced before. The first key step to help the country should come from providing humanitarian assistance to the conflict-affected people across Myanmar. Also, to provide support to the wider population in the country who are suffering immensely in the current worst economic crisis and rights violations the country has ever faced.
To be able to provide safe, full and unimpeded humanitarian assistance to the people of Myanmar the UN Secretary-General highlighted the role of the local administration in the areas that are under the control of the people's defence forces and the EAOs.
“Support to local humanitarian actors and a concerted effort to de-escalate the violence, prevent attacks against civilians and ensure safe, full and unimpeded humanitarian access for delivery through all available channels, including through local administrative structures and
networks are critical. It is imperative that the international community work with stakeholders in Myanmar, including in innovative ways with credible and trusted local organizations, to support all those in need.
“We must also support the key role of women’s rights organisations and women-led organizations in delivering humanitarian assistance in Myanmar. Moving forward, it is critical to increase entry points and channels for women’s groups to deliver social services,” the report said.
The report by the UN Secretary-General reiterated the support of the world body for the implementation of the five-point consensus adopted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations two months after the military coup, to try to resolve the political crisis in Myanmar.
Mr Guterres said the United Nations stands ready to provide its comparative expertise for the implementation of the ASEAN five-point consensus, including mediation and humanitarian assistance.
However, ASEAN continues to grapple with how to implement its five-point consensus with the junta refusing to allow ASEAN envoys to engage with the members of the opposition groups. The junta is unlikely to grant access to ASEAN and the international community to deliver humanitarian assistance to the victims of conflict in accordance with the international humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality and independence.
With the ASEAN leaders preparing to meet for the last time under the chairmanship of Indonesia in early September, the regional organisation remains clueless on how to deal with the situation in Myanmar, let alone able to lead the international community in finding a viable solution for the people of Myanmar.
The latest summit in Jakarta will not be joined by the US President Joe Biden for a separate ASEAN-US Summit. It is seen as a major setback for ASEAN to muster support from the Western powers. Mr. Biden decided not to join the summit even though he is expected to be in the region on 9 September for G 20 Summit in India.
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