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Key Highlights
· All the major developments in Myanmar this month (November) were dominated by the successes militarily by the Ethnic Armed Organizations and the civilian defence forces against the military junta. It was an unprecedented military operation that has made Myanmar's military most vulnerable both militarily and politically since the late 1940s.
· The Brotherhood Alliance which is led by China baked the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance (MNDAA) is making gains on several fronts in Northern Shan State since the military campaign dubbed as “Operation 1027” for its start date, has been launched. Other members of the alliance are the T’ang Palaung National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA). Many areas have fallen under the control of the alliance including the Kokang Region on the border with China. Many analysts now say that the operation got tacit support from China.
· A spokesperson of MNDAA recently said in a media interview that his group aims to take Nay Pyi Taw and root out the junta from there.
· This led many to believe that China has finally taken a side in the long-standing civil conflict in Myanmar. For China, the Northern Shan State is strategically important not only due to geographical proximity and shared ethnic identities, it is also crucial for Beijing economically. The Chinese-owned natural gas pipeline that starts from Kyaukphyu deep seaport passes through the Northern Shan State and runs up to China’s Yunan Province.
· Also, China sees the importance of maintaining law and order along its border with Myanmar, especially in the Kokang Region, which has been under the absolute control of the Myanmar military in recent years. Much to the dislike of China the Kokang has become a haven for the Chinese and international crime syndicates. The junta has so far failed to reign in on these groups despite repeated requests from China to do so. Now, with the MNDAA closing in to take control of the capital of the Kokang Region Lokkai, these groups were flushed out within a few days and the members of these crime syndicates were under detention of the Chinese law enforcement agencies.
· That would make Beijing rethink who is a more reliable partner in Myanmar in its geopolitical game. The junta has been going closer to Russia in recent months at a time when Moscow is under international pressure for its war in Ukraine. Many thinks such a move to go closer to Russia by Min Aung Hlaing is a sleazy move, that is not going to benefit Myanmar politically and economically.
· Now, with China showing its muscle of influence in Myanmar’s affairs, it could lead the United States to think about how to counter such influence by China in Myanmar. The US experts on Myanmar are asking the Biden Administration to engage more closely with the anti-regime political forces to make sure that democracy is restored in Myanmar.
· While these military and political maneuvers take place the people of Myanmar continue to suffer due to the atrocities committed by the junta and the economic impact of political instability in the country.
Context
· Operation 1027
The offensive launched by three pro-Chinese ethnic militia groups alliances in Myanmar dubbed “Operation 1027” for its start date is only a month old, but it forced the military junta in Nay Pyi Taw to think about how it would defend its bases in the administrative capital and other major cities in the country including Yangon and Mandalay.
Although the operation launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance looked ad hoc in the beginning, it now emerged that the planning for this coordinated attack has been underway for the past two years.
Only within two weeks after the operation started the junta’s access to China through land border is almost lost. The offensive inspired other ethnic groups to launch a similar attack against the junta. In Chin State, the Chin National Front (CNF) conducted a renewed military operation in early November and that operation has led the junta to lose control of the areas near the country’s western border with India.
And one of the oldest ethnic armed organisations the Karean National Union launched a similar offence against the junta later in the month, and if that operation is also successful the junta will lose a part of access to the Thai border from Kayin State.
There is renewed fighting in Rakhine State after the rebel group the Arakan Army (AA), which has already bases in the State, joined “Operation 1027”, the junta is fighting back against AA using its naval force. However, with the fighting likely to spread to the Northern Rakhine State, near the country’s border with Bangladesh, access to the Bangladesh border will also be severely restricted for the junta.
In another setback for the junta, the Kayah State which is situated close to Nay Pyi Taw is fast falling into the hands of the ethnic groups fighting the regime there. The rebel group fighting the regime in Kayah State, The Karenni Nationalities Defence Force (KNDFF), recently claimed that it has already controlled 80 per cent of the state including the state capital Loikaw.
Also, the junta is facing a similar fate in the Sagaing Region, where anti-junta civilian militia groups are very active. The junta faced military defeats at the hands of the recently established People Defense Forces (PDF). Lossing several towns in the Sagaing Region.
Also, there are reports of fighting between the junta troops and PDF in smaller towns in the eastern parts of Bago Region, which is close to Nay Pyi Taw.
The junta also faces threats of attacks by underground guerrilla fighters in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay, which frequently target soft targets of the junta and its officials.
These recent military setbacks forced the junta to think about how it would defend Nay Pyi Taw and these major cities if indeed, they eventually came under attack.
However, even the most optimistic views point out that the junta’s hold on the control of these major cities will not come to an end for at least for a year. They suggest the junta may regroup and reestablish its control in the lost areas in the meantime. And military experts think it is still possible, especially with its air supremacy.
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Political and diplomatic impact
There are some likely political ramifications from these military losses that could be more dreadful for the junta, particularly its leader Min Aung Hlaing.
The attacks and control of border towns by the Three Brotherhood Alliance come at a time when China is growing frustrated with the junta’s slow response to its request to clamp down on several illegal businesses, including human trafficking, being conducted by the Chinese and other nationals in Myanmar Chin border, particularly in Kokang Region. Most of the Kokang Region is currently under the control of the MNDAA also known as the Kokang militia.
The military success of MNDAA has paved the way for the arrest of these illegal business operators, much to the delight of Beijing. China might want to avoid such unlawful activities resume in the area, and due to its close alliance both ethnically and politically, China would prefer MNDAA to continue its control of the region.
With the elected civilian government under the leadership of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi maintaining cordial ties with China during its five-year reign in Myanmar since 2016, China may no longer think that only the military junta could guarantee for continuation of its influence in the country and the economic benefits.
With the latest setbacks politically and militarily the Myanmar military is on a very low morales, the way the junta soldiers surrendered in large numbers to the ethnic armies, in some cases without engaging in fighting, indicates that they no longer have faith in the current leadership, especially in Min Aung Hlaing.
With more military setbacks for Min Aung Hlaing looming, his position as the head of the military and junta may soon become untenable. And the history indicates that the transition in Myanmar military leadership is rarely a smooth affair.
With the recent incidents of Min Aung Hlaing and his deputy delivering punches at each other, the latest military debacles under Min Aung Hlaing’s watch could likely exacerbate the power struggle between the regime's two top leaders.
In the latest evidence of political struggle, one of Min Aung Hlaing’s trusted aides and former Home Minister Soe Htut and his family were jailed in November after an investigation led by Soe Win on their business dealings found widespread corruption and misuse of power.
Min Aung Haling from his end retaliated by jailing Soe Win’s close friend and former Information Minister Ye Htut to 10 years imprisonment on sedition charges. Ye Htut, who served as the information minister under the nominal government civilian government led by U Thein Sein from 2013 to 2016, has been seen as untouchable in the past years, as no action was taken against him even though he was posing a critical message against the junta head on social media.
Irrawaddy News reported that while the Brotherhood Alliance has cut transport routes in northern Shan State, the junta has blockaded roads and waterways in coastal Rakhine State. It said the junta has now isolated towns in Rakhine, imposing its ‘four cuts’ strategy on their civilian populations. It used the same strategy during the fighting last year, even restricting the delivery of medicines.
The "four-cuts" strategy was adopted at the height of the Communist insurgency in Myanmar during the 1960s and 1970s.
Now, the entire Rakhine State is reportedly cut off from the other parts of the country which could create a shortage of food and rise in the price of commodities.
The "four-cuts" strategy was by the Myanmar army in 2017 when the Myanmar military committed genocide against the Rohingya Muslims in the Northern Rakhine State. This time it is impacting the entire state.
The United Nations said the latest fighting since late October has led to the displacement of more than half a million people in multiple states and regions. This adds to the 2 million people who were already displaced before the current escalation began.
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