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Key Highlights
· The current junta led by Min Aung Hlaing completed 1000 days in office on 27 October 2023 and the recent incidents tend to indicate that the junta is currently on the back foot in terms of its capacity to control the country and the international outrage against the atrocities it is committing against the people of Myanmar.
· The junta lost control of a major border trading post on the Myanmar-China border and four other towns in Northern Shan State in concerted attacks by an alliance of ethnic armies, called the Brotherhood Alliance which started on 27 October. The operation is coded named "1027" in reference to the date it was started.
· As the junta continued its atrocities against the civilians the United States, Canada, and the British government decided to impose new sanctions against the junta.
· Even, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which normally refrains from speaking out against the internal affairs of its member state spoke out against a recent airstrike by the junta troops in Kachin State, which attracted ire from the junta.
· Meanwhile, the junta consolidated its relations with a fellow international pariah Russia. The Russian Navy Chief visited Myanmar to witness the first-ever naval exercise between Myanmar and Russia in early November. The month of October saw Myanmar signing a new nuclear deal with Russia.
· In response to diminishing international attention on the Rohingya crisis, an international conference on the Rohingya refugees issue was held in Bangkok on 17 October. the conference was joined by participation from the United Nations, the Organisation of Islamic States (OiC) and the representatives of the Gulf countries.
· Against the backdrop of these developments, the ethnic armed groups and the people's defence forces fighting the regime said the recent unprecedented gains by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in fighting against the junta provide a new opportunity to topple the regime.
Context
“Operation 1027” is a joint military operation conducted by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, a military coalition composed of the Arakan Army (AA), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), ethnic armed organisations in Myanmar.
The joint forces launched simultaneous attacks in multiple towns in northern Shan State, targeting the Myanmar Army, Myanmar Police, and pro-military militia installations in Kutkai, Kyaukme, Muse, Namkham, Nawnghkio, Lashio, and Chinshwehaw. The rebels later expanded their offensive outside Shan State, staging attacks in Mogok, Mandalay and Htigyaing, Sagiang Region.
By the end of 30 October, the Brotherhood Alliance claimed to have captured a total of 67 army outposts across the region. Other anti-junta groups in the country, such as the People's Defense Force (PDF), pledged their support for and participation in the operation, conducting further attacks on the regime.
A concerted military operation in Myanmar involving all the opponents of the Myanmar military was expected shortly after the military coup in February 2021. However, it took 1000 days after the military coup to initiate such an attack, Operation 1027, seemed to have the potential to bring more groups into the fold of fighting. Among the camps controlled by the ethnic alliance include a camp of the Myanmar military near Lashio, the capital of Northern Shan State and the base of the junta’s Northern Eastern Command.
This latest operation could be the most successful attack launched by the ethnic armies against the Myanmar army since the attack on Insein near Rangoon by the Karen National Defence Organisation way back in 1949.
This time around there is an easier political rallying point for all groups to join the attack against the highly unpopular and brutal military regime led by Min Aung Hlaing.
The Three Brotherhood Alliance released a joint statement declaring the start of Operation 1027, on 27 October 2023. The alliance had the combined capability to draw on 15,000 troops.
The statement detailed the primary objectives of the operation, being to:
- Safeguard the lives of civilians.
- Assert our right to self-defence.
- Maintain control over their territory.
- Respond resolutely to ongoing artillery attacks and airstrikes perpetrated by the junta.
- Eradicate the oppressive military rule.
- Combat the widespread online gambling fraud that has plagued Myanmar, particularly along the China–Myanmar border.
Several fellow ethnic armies pledged their allegiance to the Three Brotherhood Alliance.
Padoh Saw Taw Nee, the Spokesman for the largest rebel group in Myanmar the Karen National Union said Operation 1027 has given the revolution fresh momentum.
While Khun Bedu, President of the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force called the latest attacks against the regime as the second wave of mass resistance against the military coup. The first was shortly after the military coup when tens of thousands of civilians converged on the streets in the major cities across Myanmar to protest the military coup.
U Maung Maung Swe, Spokesman for the National Unity Government’s Ministry of Defense said, the Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 when enough arms and ammunition had been accumulated.
"The junta’s soldiers have very low morale, and these defeats show they do not want to fight. The international community should take note," U Maung Maung Swe said.
o More airstrikes by the junta in recent weeks.
The junta carried out a total of 1,427 airstrikes since the military coup, according to a report by an independent research group Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica. It said airstrikes occur every three days on average.
The report said Sagaing Region, Karen State and Kayah State have experienced the highest numbers of airstrikes. It said Karen State tops the list of airstrikes with 322 times, followed by Sagaing Region with 195.
In the latest incident, the junta launched an airstrike on the Mung Lai Hkyet camp for internally displaced people (IDPs) in Laiza, Kachin State, on 9 October.
The eyewitness of the incident later told to media that at least 40 people including 11 children were killed in the airstrike. They said the assault came at a time when there was no fighting. They said at least five bombs were dropped on the camp. the attack was described by human rights groups as a war crime.
The international community condemned the bombing in Kachin State, with countries including Canada, France, and the United Kingdom expressing concern and sympathy for the victims and their families, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) also condemned the attack and called for the implementation of its Five-Point Consensus peace plan. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked: “Those responsible must be held to account.”
o Sanctions in response to the junta’s atrocities
The United States has imposed additional sanctions on Myanmar’s government-owned Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise, or MOGE.
A statement released by the US Treasury on 31 October said the action was taken to curb the growth of Myanmar’s junta. MOGE is a main source of revenue for the military government which is being used to purchase military weapons and materials from abroad.
The US Treasury said in a statement issued on the same day that the action prohibits some financial services, including loans, accounts, insurance, investments and others by Americans to the state oil and gas enterprise starting on 15 December.
Additionally, the United States imposed sanctions on three entities and five individuals, who have been designated to support the military rule in Myanmar, the statement said.
On the same day, the British Government announced sanctions against five individuals and one entity involved either in providing financial services to the regime or supplying restricted goods.
Canadian authorities also tightened its sanctions against Myanmar by adding junta officials and its affiliates. Canada now has 95 individuals and 63 entities in Myanmar that are under its sanction list.
o Russia
On the other hand, the Myanmar junta is getting all the backing it needs from Russia. Russia has announced plans to conduct naval exercises with Myanmar the first ever such exercise to be conducted by the two countries.
The wargame was announced during a working visit to Nay Pyi Taw by the commander-in-chief of the Russian navy, Nikolai Yevmenov.
The military experience follows the signing of a nuclear deal between Myanmar and Russia in mid-October. Under the latest deal, Russia is to support Myanmar in building a nuclear reactor help to resolve the electricity shortage in Myanmar.
The initial nuclear cooperation agreement was signed during a visit to Russia by the junta head Min Aung Hlaing in July 2022.
The latest agreement was signed by Alexey Likhachev, director general of Rosatom, and the junta’s science and technology minister, Dr Myo Thein Kyaw in Moscow on 11 October including building a possible modular reactor project.
Human rights groups have said Myanmar’s regime cannot be trusted with nuclear technology.
o Rohingya Conference in Bangkok
The senior officials and experts working on the Rohnigya crisis met in the Thai capital Bangkok on 17 October. The conference was attended by Government representatives, refugee-led organisations, the United Nations, academia, and civil society with the joint aim of improving the Rohingya refugee response.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi, who joined the conference urged the international community not to forget the plight of ethnic Rohingya refugees from Myanmar in the midst of many other world crises.
Mr Grandi said providing humanitarian assistance is becoming increasingly difficult because of the continuing armed conflict in Myanmar and reduced funding and aid due to the other crises, including in Afghanistan, Ukraine and the Middle East.
A senior Foreign Ministry official of the Government of Qatar also joined the meeting and reiterated his country’s support for the safe and voluntary repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar.
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