I've mentioned it several times before, but since 2011 the sword industry has been having a rough ride. It's only a tiny community and a true micro-niche business, so its very vulnerable to external pressures and in the last 12 month has been hit hard by sudden shipping bans and to many sellers much of their international customers can no longer be serviced.
In time, this means that the industry will likely become further compartmentalized, with local sellers popping up to import in bulk and fill the void in the market - though chances are that their prices will be double that of North America, to which collectors can no longer easily access..
While the China and US trade wars do not yet effect sword orders coming in from China, the threat of looming tariffs has made it harder for many sellers to find confident buyers - and then there appears to also be a level of market saturation. There hasn't been a good sword movie in years to capture the public's attention and bring in new enthusiasts.
All in all, times are tough for sword sellers - and its another one of those times when it pays to be especially vigilant. In a recent Facebook post by none other than Angus Trim himself he notes:
"I suspect the market's saturated right now. When the market opens up, there's almost always someone new that jumps in and takes up the slack. Nature hates a vacuum.
That happens on the low end {or entry level if you prefer}, the midrange, the upper midrange, and the upper, upper end. Though the true elite very seldom is affected by any of this.
Sometimes it's the way things evolve. If you were involved in the community 20 years ago, and went to sleep for 20 years, you would probably remark on how much the community and market has changed. Most everything has improved. The entry level 20 years ago, most of it anyway, wouldn't get in the door today.
What to do if the temporary slow down is stinging you? Well, things to consider. There's 50% turnover in the community every 3 years, so new potential customers are entering the market all the time to replace those that are leaving the community. And if this plateau lasts long enough, there'll be a shake out happen. The weaker makers and smiths {and retailers} will disappear."
When the weaker makers, smiths and retailers do go out of business, they can - intentionally or not - take YOUR money with them. This is especially true of the eBay and Alibaba crowd, many of who are looking for a way out of the industry that is no longer making them the extra cash that it once did.
Stay sharp and support the local industry as much as you can. Tell your friends about your hobby, share more posts about swords you bought on social media and don't panic. While the shake out appears to be in progress, if you stick to well known makers you not only lower your risk but strengthen the brands and sellers who have been there for you over the years.
