THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week (with occasional bonus quotes) by
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No.34 of 2020
WEDNESDAY, MAY 13, 2020

Click HERE for Saturday's quote from USTR Robert Lighthizer.
WHERE HAVE ALL THE CUSTOMERS GONE?

“The biggest buyer of fluid milk in the United States is the National School Lunch Program. Those buyers just aren't out there?"

Orion Samuelson
April 21, 2020 (Publication Date)
CONTEXT
Orion Samuelson has been called ‘the voice of agriculture in the Midwest.” Inducted into the Radio Hall of Fame in 2003, he has now been with WGN in Chicago for 60 years. Today's featured quote is from a comment of his we found in an ABC story about U.S. farmers dumping milk they cannot sell. The caption to a picture in that story sums up one such situation this way:

Owner Richard Azevedo steps over the hose of a milk bulk tank as the milk is dumped down the drain, April 8, 2020, at the Azevedo family farm in Buhl, Idaho. With restaurants across the country closed, milk processors have lost a significant chunk of their market, leaving dairy farmers with no one to take their milk.

The impacts of the novel coronavirus and the policy responses to it are multifaceted and changing rapidly. Those overarching truths are valid for country after country as well as industry after industry. And they certainly apply to U.S. dairy producers. We cannot keep up with these developments much less do justice to them in these short entries. Here though are a few brief impressions from an hour or so of reading. 

Across the Globe . From S&P Global, there is this effort to provide a sense of the size the industry:

The global milk products industry generates $716 billion of revenue each year, of which $85 billion is in the U.S., according to Statista. India is the world's largest milk producer, with 22% of global production, followed by the U.S., China, Pakistan and Brazil, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

Money and Markets.  Our subject today, however, is the plight of dairy farmers in the United States, and here the situation is grim but complicated. It is grim because demand is way down. In early April, the National Milk Producers Federation estimated that the supply of milk exceeded demand by some 10 percent, and the situation has presumably gotten worse since. It is complicated because for many milk producers there is a lag between delivery and payments. On the plus side, many U.S. producers are still buoyed by payments from earlier sales. That anesthesia, however, will wear off soon. It is the pain of significantly reduced income in the months ahead that so many farmers are focused on. As Alan Bjerga of the National Milk Producers Federation explained, when dairy farmers are paid for their milk, “there’s a little bit of a lag in the price impacts that you see.” He continued:

So, when you’ve seen these plunges in milk prices in recent weeks, that hasn’t necessarily made its way to the farmer yet. And it will now be making its way to the farmer, and as milk checks start coming in, farmers are going to begin to be seeing some really important revenue losses.

This is a crucial thing to note as the USDA is looking at calculating payments to farmers under the CARES Act.* The current USDA formula is very much weighted to losses that farmers had before April 15. In the case of dairy, the concentration of losses is actually going to be after April 15 because it’s just starting to hit now. And that is something that we’re really trying to make clear with USDA when they are taking a look at this assistance as well as any future assistance … .

Alternative Outlets – We have a lot to learn and little to say about the National School Lunch Program or any other Federal program that drives demand for dairy and other agricultural products. That said, we are grateful to the National Milk Producers Federation for drawing our attention to the Farmers to Families Food Box Programs . The USDA press release announcing this program begins this way: 

As part of the Coronavirus Farm Assistance Program, Secretary Purdue announced on April 17 that the USDA is exercising its authority under the Families First Corona Coronavirus Response Act** to purchase and distribute up to $3 billion of agricultural products to those in need. USDA will partner with regional and local distributors, whose workforce has been significantly impacted by the closure of many restaurants, hotels, and other food service entities, to purchase fresh produce, dairy, and meat.

Those distributors will then work with non-profits to get the food to those who need it. According to NMPF, USDA is committed to buying some $317 million in dairy products under this program.

COMMENT
The loss of farm income is, of course, just one item in the previously unimaginable contraction in economic activity that we have all witnessed over the last few months. Food is about as basic as human needs get, however, and so what happens on the farms is important to all of us, and ultimately, the world’s reflections on the economic effects of COVID-19 will work their way into new policies. Those things will come later. For today, we’d simply like to take note of a couple of different perspectives on food and the COVID lockdown. 

On May 5 we shared some highlights from the virtual trade dialogue on food that the WTO hosted on April 30. One of the speakers was Maximo Torero from the Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, and one of the things he talked about was food that is lost or tossed without making it to anyone’s stomach. He drew a distinction between losses – milk dumped in the river, mangoes left in the field, in short, food abandoned long before it reaches the consumer – and waste which makes it to retailers or consumers but is never eaten. Because of the drop in demand for numerous reasons, starting with the closing of the world’s restaurants, Mr. Torero was anticipating significant food losses in the months ahead.

But now let us consider a very different source of information: the endless stream of articles from those who worry about our health, yours and mine. Here is the beginning of one such article by Lindsay Peyton of The Houston Chronicle:

The “freshmen 15,” that inevitable weight gain the first year of college, is attributed to multiple factors, including a new environment, different routine, greater access to junk food and alcohol and a lot more stress. Sound familiar?

The coronavirus pandemic appears to have many of the same effects, shaking up schedules, making gyms inaccessible and turning binge-watching into a viable alternative for passing time. Pantries are full of comfort food, and it’s always 5 o’clock at the home bar. And that means the fear of gaining the “COVID-15” is real.

This article appeared under the headline: Experts Weigh in on How to Limit Quarantine Weight Gain.

So, now we ask our obvious (and perhaps silly) question. Leave aside the school lunch kids. Consider only those who have caused “a demand shock” to parts of agriculture by staying home from restaurants that have been forced to close. Are they not the same people who are worrying about putting on pounds in quarantine?  

The thing is, as anyone with a five-year-old can tell you, once he or she starts asking questions, the questions are endless. How much normal farm income for example is due to restaurant wastage? Will those numbers change as restaurants adapt to some new normal? And what about the meals at major events, large portions of which go uneaten?

Or is it simply that distribution patterns need to change? Indeed, they are already changing, with more food going directly to grocery stores or home delivery services and less to restaurants. 
These questions will all get sorted out in time. The urgent thing is to keep the producers going.
SOURCES & LINKS
FARMERS DUMPING MILK takes you to the ABC news story with today’s featured quote from Orion Samuelson.

DAIRY CHECKS AND USDA is a link to a YouTube featuring NMPF’s senior vice president for communications, Alan Bjerga. As noted above, Mr. Bjerga explains in this clip both the lag in dairy farm income and how importance it is for USDA to factor that reality into their systems for distributing farm aid.

*The CARES ACT is The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act, formerly H.R. 748. It was signed into law by President Trump on March 27, 2020, and is now Public Law 116-136.

** The Families First Coronavirus Response Act (HR 6201) was signed into law by President Trump on March 18, 2020, and is now Public Law 116-127.

From a WTO Dialogue takes you to the webinar with the April 30 trade dialogue on food from the World Trade Organization.
Experts Weigh In is a link to the article by Lindsay Peyton referenced in the Comment Section above.
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