THE TTALK QUOTES
On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC   Tel: 202-559-9316
No. 7  of 2018
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2018

Click here for the February 2 quote from EU Ambassador David O'Sullivan. 
 BUENOS AIRES: A WTO TURNING POINT

"I left Buenos Aires feeling very upbeat about the future of the WTO and the world trading system it embodies."

Alan Wm. Wolff
February 9, 2018

CONTEXT
Alan Wolff is a deputy director-general at the World Trade Organization in Geneva, and last Friday morning, he was the featured speaker at a GBD event on the WTO. "The Outlook for the WTO After Buenos Aires" was the title he gave for his remarks, and he didn't make the audience wait for the core of his assessment. He led off with it. Here again is today's quote and a little of what followed it: 

I left Buenos Aires feeling very upbeat about the future of the WTO and the world trading system it embodies.

What I want to cover with you this morning are two fundamental reasons for my feeling of exuberance after MC11, the WTO Ministerial at Buenos Aires, and to give you a measure of the challenges that lie ahead. 
 
The first reason for feeling as positive as I did was personal experience - derived from the activities with which I was directly involved in BA. The second reason for feeling very good about MC11 concerns the outlook for the world trading system.

There isn't room here for the full speech, but you can read it or listen to it at Geneva Message, which is the page of the GBD website devoted to last Friday's discussion. That said, we do want to share a little more here, namely these three points.

On Accessions. The WTO division that deals with accessions is one of those that report to Deputy Director-General Wolff. So it is not surprising that some of his meetings in Buenos Aires dealt with the aspirations of countries that are not yet members of the WTO. As he explained: 

I also met with delegations from Belarus, Iraq and others seeking to accede to the WTO. 

At a time when there had been earlier in 2017 rumors of a major member looking for the exit, listening to countries who see the benefits of integration into the global trading system, for their economic development, is, frankly, inspiring.

The Leading Countries. As for the conduct of the major players, Ambassador Wolff, himself a former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, was clearly encouraged by the conduct of the United States, both at the ministerial and afterwards. "Why did I leave Buenos Aires feeling exuberant?" he asked. His answer: 

Part of it was the participation of a number of forward leaning countries. 

First and foremost, the U.S. was there, was engaged constructively. That this would be so was an unknown before BA. The U.S. has been the prime architect, builder, and guarantor of the multilateral trading system. The importance of its participation cannot be overstated. 
 
Amb. Lighthizer opened with a statement that was very well received, although it described his views on the need for reform - on self-designation as a developing country with the consequence of accepting a lesser level of obligations, on dispute settlement that yields results that negotiations could not, on the need for transparency and living up to existing WTO commitments.

And on summing up MC11 at its conclusion, the U.S. view he articulated was that the Conference was a success, and that the U.S. was looking forward to participating in discussions to improve E-Commerce, among other possibilities. 

There is now a clear path forward to restore the negotiating function to the WTO ... .

And that path is the path of plurilaterals - agreements driven by those with the greatest stake in the issue - from fisheries to e-commerce - and a willingness to forge new disciplines and foster greater openness, through agreements that are open to all. Over the next several weeks, we shall look at some of those areas. Doubtless in doing so, we shall occasionally look back and borrow a line or two from Alan Wolff's GBD speech on February 9. 
 
The Engagement Challenge. To the extent that Ambassador Wolff talked about unmet challenges - and he talked about several -- the most critical, as least as we heard him, was the challenge of engagement. It is a challenge that can be seen within the membership of the WTO and perhaps more importantly in their constituents. He noted for example that, among the members, the United States is no longer leading on the range of issues it once championed, and initiatives like the Environmental Goods Agreement are floundering as a result. Worse, no other country or group of countries has really stepped up to fill that role. 

In his conclusion, Ambassador Wolff focused on the traders rather than the rule makers. He said: 

It is now up to the private sector, including not only business but also others, to give shape and impetus to governments improving the world trading system. What is at stake is enormous. The role of the private sector will determine what can be achieved. 
 
Before MC11, I do not know of a single CEO of any company in any country that called upon his country's president to accomplish more at Buenos Aires. I do not know of any country's president calling another country's president to foster an ambitious outcome - other than the host, President Macri of Argentina. It is no excuse that the table was not set with rich multilateral agreements ready for signature, because the private sector and the member governments as a whole simply did not prepare for results of that kind. 
 
In Berlin, three weeks ago, I was asked what was one thing that would make the most difference for making improvements in the world trading system, and I answered "ENGAGEMENT". The people in this room, the companies and governments that they represent, and those like them, can make the difference going forward.
COMMENT
Deputy Director-General Alan Wolff gave a wide-ranging speech last Friday morning. He talked about e-commerce, investment, FTAs, fisheries subsidies, national security and the WTO, dispute settlement, and cotton. And that is not the full list. As indicated above, we expect to circle back to many of those issues in the coming weeks. 
 
Here it is enough to say that for the WTO, each of those issues is a negotiating challenge. And that is Alan Wolff's point of departure. "All of life is a negotiation," he said at one point. At first blush, the negotiating table looks like a combat arena, a field of competing, antagonistic aspirations. In fact, negotiations - especially trade negotiations - are deeply cooperative exercises undertaken for the purpose of mutual benefit. We do not underestimate the magnitude of the divide that separates parties on some issues. And for some issues, that divide may not be bridgeable. 
 
But from time to you have to step back and look at what has happened in Alan Wolff's lifetime (and in ours). The transformation of the global economy in the post-World War II era has been nothing short of miraculous, the benefits to most of the people on this planet unimaginable before they were achieved. Did trade do it all? No. But if the phrase sine qua non has any meaning whatsoever, trade has been a sine qua non of the economic miracle that surrounds us all.
SOURCES & LINKS
Prepared Remarks is a link to Alan Wolff's prepared text for his GBD presentation on February 9. This was the source today's featured quote and most of the others.

From the Event takes you the page of the GBD website devoted to our event on February 9 with Alan Wolff. Here you will find his prepared text and audio recordings from the event.

Sine qua non is the Wikipedia entry for this phrase. It is probably the case that the phrase is a familiar one to all of the readers these pages. But maybe not. So three points.

1. Wikipedia defines the phrase "[a condition] without which it could not be."

2. We lament that Latin is no longer taught in most American high schools. That's too bad because, among other things, it offers a wealth of insights into English grammar.

3. And into American history. The Wikipedia site above includes a reference to something President Andrew Jackson said in Cambridge, Massachusetts, back in 1833. On receiving an honorary degree from Harvard, the seventh president of the United States responded, "E pluribus unum, my friends. Sine qua non."

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