THE TTALK QUOTES


On Global Trade & Investment
Published Three Times a Week By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC  Tel: 202-559-9316
No. 78 of 2019
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 3, 20219

Click HERE for last Tuesday's quote from Speaker Pelosi.
USMCA - TIME WARNING FROM THE SENATE

 "If a deal cannot be reached by the end of this week, I do not see how the USMCA can be ratified in the year we are in."

Chuck Grassley
December 2, 2019
CONTEXT
Senator Grassley (R – Iowa) went to the Senate floor yesterday to send a message to both to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and to the world at large.   The heart of that message is today’s featured quote. We have done our own transcript from the YouTube clip of the Senator’s short statement, and here it is.

Senator Grassley:

I’ve come to the floor many times to speak with my colleagues about the U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. I recently spoke with my colleagues in the House of Representatives and also officials within the Administration about the same subject. By all accounts, the deal is close on the U.S.-Mexico, United States-Mexico Trade Agreement. I urge House Democrats to act quickly and be reasonable so that we can finally deliver certainty on this issue to the American people. 

It has now been more than a year since the leaders of Canada, Mexico, and the United States signed the agreement. So, Americans have waited a year for what can happen now to happen. 

This modernized trade agreement will create hundreds of thousands of new jobs and help Americans grow wages for our workers. The end of this year’s legislative session is rapidly approaching, as we all know. If a deal cannot be reached by the end of this week, I do not see how the USMCA can be ratified in the year we are in. As it is, the window of opportunity for 2019 is extremely tight. Now is the time for the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives to finally act so that we can act here in the United States Senate.  

It is hard to imagine this message coming from a more authoritative source. Chuck Grassley is the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, the senior senator for a major agricultural state, Iowa, with an enormous stake in USMCA, and, as President pro tem of the Senate, the 3rd in line for the presidency after the Vice President and Speaker of the House. 

One has to wonder, will Senator Grassley’s warning have the desired effect? Will there be a vote on USMCA in the next several days? Our answers to those questions would, of course, be pure speculation. We’ll save them for the comment section. While we are still in the business of providing context, however, it is worth noting, first, that other important players are weighing in and, second, that there does seem to be some movement, some shifts in positions.

Last week, for example, the President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico wrote again to Speaker Pelosi , urging action on USMCA. He had written earlier on October 8. In his more recent letter, dated November 26, President López Obrador underscored his commitment to fulfilling the labor related provisions of USMCA and called for action in the United States.  “Madam Speaker,” he wrote , “Mexico respectfully invites you to conclude this complex chapter between our countries … . [A]s I said in my October 8 letter, let us move forward with the USMCA promptly …”  

As for the hints of movement, USTR is reportedly considering a rollback of the period of data exclusivity – the period of protection for biologics – from the 10 years of the current agreement to 8 years. That would be a win for Democrats. Add to that yesterday’s announcement that the House has added four more legislative days to the 2019 calendar, and there are reasons to believe, to hope, that bigger news may be in the offing. 
COMMENT
Will the House and Senate vote this year on implementing legislation for USMCA? The simple fact is we do not know. On this, we can think of no better oracle than Doris Day , “Whatever will be will be.”

But let’s look a little more closely at the two obvious scenarios as they appear this evening. The happy one, legislation signed into law this month, would leave one with the pleasant task of enjoying a bit of good news on trade and asking Canadians about the details of the ratification process in Canada. The other one is more problematic.

If USMCA is pending when Congress returns in January, it is anyone’s guess how that situation will play out against the backdrop of impeachment. We do not share the view that a trade bill can’t be done in an election year. Whatever wisdom that axiom may contain is turned on its head by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Our impression is that more seats will be put at risk – both Democrat and Republican – by a failure to approve the agreement than by its passage. That said, if in the middle of next year, President Trump and Speaker Pelosi are staring at each across a bitter political battlefield, it worth considering that the President will not wish to feel that Speaker Pelosi has all the cards. He could, for example, decide that too much had been conceded and pull back from today’s deal. To return to the obvious, Congressional action this month would render all such nightmares moot. 
SOURCES & LINKS
Time is Running Out takes you to the page of Senator Grassley’s website with this floor speech from December 2. This was the source for today’s featured quote.

A Letter from President López Obrador is the text of the November 26 letter to Mrs. Pelosi from the president of Mexico mentioned above.

Morning Trade for December 3 is a link today’s issue of this valuable report, with a useful update on the negotiations between House Democrats and USTR.

Biologics and USMCA is a Wall Street Journal story on the linkage between these two issues.
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