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Weekly Analyst Review

24 July 2025

 

Bottom Line Up Front

ISWA Releases Execution Video: “The Consequence of Betrayal”


Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWA) has released a highly choreographed execution video titled “The Consequence of Betrayal”, in which seven men are simultaneously executed by beheading. This release is more than just a brutal act of violence; it is a calculated propaganda effort designed to maintain control through fear and reaffirm ISWA’s relevance both locally and within the broader Islamic State (IS) network.


These videos play a central role in ISWA’s psychological warfare strategy. In the volatile Lake Chad region, where ISWA competes not only with Nigerian state forces but also with rival jihadist group Boko Haram, retaining the loyalty, or at least the silence, of civilians is vital. Accusations of “spying” or “betrayal” are often loosely applied to instil widespread fear. Civilians suspected of collaborating with the government or defecting to rival factions are summarily executed. Usually, these individuals are caught in the crossfire of intelligence wars, and they receive little to no protection from the state, leaving them fatally exposed to ISWA’s wrath.


The video itself is a deliberate nod to the Islamic State’s earlier, iconic propaganda pieces, particularly the infamous “Even If the Disbelievers Dislike It” released in September 2014. Much like its predecessor, this new production features the victims uniformly dressed—though this time in glossy red jumpsuits rather than the familiar dull orange—kneeling before a freshly dug trench designed to capture the blood from their beheadings. The men are filmed making coerced “confessions” to justify their executions. The high production value and visual symbolism suggest that either the video’s producer has direct roots in Syria and Iraq, or has been rigorously trained in the visual language of Islamic State propaganda, likely the former.

Other Developments

(Poster) Aryan Freedom Network (AFN) Anticipated Expansion to Missouri with Meet & Greet Event on 19 July 2025 in Kirksville, Missouri, United States

On 16 July 2025, the Aryan Freedom Network (AFN) released a promotional poster announcing a “Meet & Greet” event scheduled for 19 July in Kirksville, Missouri. This marks the first documented instance of AFN activity in the city, and more broadly, reflects a notable attempt to expand into previously untouched parts of Missouri. While AFN has had a growing presence throughout the Midwest, this event represents a calculated effort to activate support in smaller, less-scrutinised locales where extremist activity may draw less immediate public resistance or law enforcement attention.


The selection of Kirksville, a relatively quiet college town in rural northeastern Missouri, is likely a strategic choice. Such locations offer a fertile ground for low-profile organising, allowing AFN to gradually build community networks, recruit new members, and normalise its presence under the guise of community engagement. These “meet & greet” events have increasingly become central to AFN’s grassroots outreach model, serving not only as recruiting opportunities but also as soft entry points for more formal organising activity in new regions.


This expansion aligns with AFN’s broader operational trajectory. As of December 2024, the group claimed presence in 34 U.S. states, branding itself the country’s largest National Socialist and pro-White organisation. That number was later updated to 36 on AFN’s website, likely following their announced expansions into Illinois in March 2025 and now Missouri. The addition of Missouri to this roster signals the continuation of AFN’s aggressive nationwide growth strategy.


Notably, in June 2023, AFN publicly committed to establishing a presence in 30 states by the end of that year. TRAC has since tracked 23 posters released by AFN promoting their presence across different U.S. states following that pledge. If AFN’s timeline were taken at face value, the group was incorporating a new state roughly every two days during the initial push, demonstrating a highly active propaganda campaign. However, that momentum visibly slowed after October 2023, likely due to a combination of internal limitations, external pressure, or shifting strategic priorities.

TRAC Incident Report: Police Kill Two Militants of the Muslim Brotherhood Group-Linked Hasm Movement Faction in a Raid, Giza, Egypt

On 20 July 2025, Egyptian security forces conducted a targeted raid in the Bulaq al-Dakrur neighbourhood of Giza against members of the Hasm Movement, an armed faction aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. The operation resulted in a deadly shootout, leaving two Hasm militants, identified as M. Ihab Abdelatif Mohamed Abdelqader and Ahmed Mohamed Abdelrazek Ahmed Ghoneim, dead. The suspects reportedly opened fire as police stormed the apartment being used as a safe house. A stray bullet struck a passerby unaffiliated with the incident and later succumbed to his injuries. Additionally, one police officer was wounded during the exchange of gunfire. The Egyptian Interior Ministry has since released a statement attributing the operation to broader efforts to thwart planned terrorist attacks targeting the country’s security and economic infrastructure.


Notably, Egyptian authorities also accused "leaders of the Hasm Movement" based in Turkey of orchestrating terror plots aimed at destabilising Egypt. This allegation represents a significant diplomatic escalation, as Cairo has long accused Ankara of sheltering Muslim Brotherhood-aligned operatives and facilitating subversive activities against the Egyptian state. These tensions are further exacerbated by ongoing disputes between the two countries over maritime claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly following Turkey’s controversial 2019 maritime agreement with Libya’s Government of National Accord (GNA). The deal has raised alarms in both Greece and Egypt due to its implications on Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and energy exploration rights.


The Hasm Movement, formally founded in 2016 and proscribed as a terrorist organisation by both the United Kingdom (December 2017) and the United States (January 2018), served as a paramilitary offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. While the group was particularly active from 2016 to 2019, conducting assassinations, bombings, and attacks on Egyptian security forces, it has maintained a lower operational profile in recent years.


However, the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has seemingly re-energised elements within the Brotherhood’s network, reigniting their ideological and militant posture. In June 2025, TRAC reported the arrest of a jihadist affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood in Tarragona, Spain, highlighting the group’s continued transnational reach and its capacity to exploit regional unrest. This raid in Giza further indicates that Egyptian authorities remain deeply concerned about the potential resurgence of Muslim Brotherhood-linked militancy, particularly under the geopolitical shadow of the Gaza conflict and strained Turkish-Egyptian relations.

TRAC Incident Report: Mexican Police Eliminated Four Cártel del Noreste (CDN) Sicarios in Clash on the Cadereyta-Allende Highway, Nuevo León, México

In the early hours of 19 July 2025, around 2:30 a.m., a confrontation broke out between members of the Cártel del Noreste (CDN) and Cadereyta Municipal Police along the Cadereyta-Allende Highway in Nuevo León. The gun battle resulted in the deaths of four CDN gunmen, three men and one woman, while police officers emerged unharmed. The incident began after local merchants reported the presence of suspicious, armed individuals to the authorities. Responding officers were immediately met with gunfire, initiating a high-speed pursuit that concluded at kilometre 11 near the El Castillo community. There, a sustained firefight ensued, ultimately neutralising the armed assailants. Security forces recovered a cache of weapons, including long rifles, bulletproof vests, ammunition, and tactical gear, highlighting the heavily militarised nature of CDN operations.


The Cadereyta-Allende Highway was closed for several hours to allow forensic personnel to process the scene. This confrontation marks a critical development, definitively confirming TRAC's longstanding suspicions that CDN has reestablished its presence in Nuevo León. Before this incident, the last verified CDN activity in the state was recorded in 2022, raising speculation that the group had lost operational foothold in the region.


This renewed presence indicates that CDN's territorial influence now spans at least three key states in northeastern Mexico: Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí, and, now, confirmed once again, Nuevo León. The strategic importance of this corridor, connecting urban centres, industrial hubs, and border crossings, makes it a valuable zone for cartels engaged in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and extortion. 

(Poster/ Right-Wing Extremism) Neo-Nazi Deport Them Now Group Promotes ‘Maghrebi Hunt’ Using Artifical Intelligence (AI), Torre-Pacheco, Murcia, Spain 

TRAC Incident Report: Rival Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Factions in Nabawalag, Cotabato, Reconcile in an Official Ceremony in Datu Odin Sinsuat Town, Maguindanao del Norte, Philippines

TRAC Incident Report: Bandits Conduct Large Raid Kidnapping 100 and Killing 9 in Jengebe Village, Talatan Mafara LGA, Zamfara, Nigeria

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