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Weekly Analyst Review

01 November 2023

 

Bottom Line Up Front

Reports recently emerged that, on 06 October 2023, the FBI arrested Joseph Findley, 43, of Cleveland, on federal charges for allegedly jamming metal into tracks and rail switches in order to cause train derailments in Ohio.


On 12 August 2023, a train derailment took place during a test run of a CSX locomotive. After this incident and subsequent reports by railway workers discovering metal objects on the train tracks in question, railway cameras were put in place. According to authorities, Findley was caught on camera by railway cameras, and was identified by local residents.


Findley was said to have jammed metal objects on a train line at least five separate times from August to October this year. In particular, on 01 October 2023, Findley allegedly put four rail spikes at a railway switch.


When confronted by federal agents, Findley reportedly admitted to being the person in the videos and to placing spikes on the tracks, but denied placing other objects in the switches. Findley contends he had no intention of causing a train to crash. However, in the criminal complaint, one agent alleged that the pieces of metal were placed on the rails in a way that showed "characteristics of an intentional act" by someone who had "a base knowledge of how the tracks and the switch operate as well as how to disrupt these normal operations."


To be clear, there have been no more train derailments since the 12 August incident nor since Findley's arrest, but the act of jamming metal objects and track plates into the switch points has caused significant damage to the railway.

It is worth noting that eco-fascist groups, via their social network channels, regularly advocate for attacks on the national railway system. Over the summer of 2023, eco-fascist insiders circulated an instructional YouTube video on how to make an improvised mobile thermal lance kit, to encourage their followers to cut railway lines in order to cause train derailments. This tactic is in line with the 'accelerationist' strategy aimed at causing a sociopolitical collapse, ultimately leading to what they see as social change for the betterment of the white man. 


On 03 February 2023, 38 cars of a Norfolk Southern freight train carrying hazardous materials derailed in East Palestine, Ohio. A couple weeks later and approximately 4 hours away, on 16 February 2023, a train derailed in Van Buren Township, Michigan, for which an accelerationist racist group claimed responsibility.


A little more than two months after the Michigan incident, on 24 April, a suspected improvised train derailer was found by police officers on tracks near a homeless encampment area in the proximity of the railway tracks in Wilmington, Ohio.


TRAC cannot ignore that the sabotage of railways to cause train derailments is a specific tactic that converges with left-wing extremist and right-wing ideologies as well. From the far left, Anarchists frequently make use of tools to cause derailments and have also published and disseminated instructional manuals on how to do so. From the far right, eco-fascists consistently advocate that there is almost no chance of being caught when you derail a train in remote locations.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for October 2023

The global operations claimed by Islamic State (IS) have seen a slight uptick compared to the previous month. In September 2023, IS Central Command claimed responsibility for 56 attacks, a number that rose to 62 in October.


Nevertheless, when comparing to the same period in 2022, a remarkable contrast remains. In October 2022, IS claimed responsibility for 95 attacks, rendering this October's number somewhat insignificant. However, as TRAC has stated in the past, this conspicuous 35% decline is a deliberate tactic employed by the leadership of Islamic State since early 2023, whose objective is to portray an overall decline in group operations, which is only reaffirmed by the mainstream media wishful narrative.


October's downward trajectory is not only evident in claimed operations but also in unclaimed activities. This month, TRAC recorded 63 IS operations that were not officially claimed or even acknowledged by IS central command. It is worth noting that this marks a significant shift from the previous month when TRAC documented approximately 90 unclaimed attacks.


Interestingly, however, in October, there was no distinction between claimed and unclaimed operations for Islamic State supporters, a first-of-its-kind observation. Notably, TRAC attributed these unclaimed operations to IS based on the targets, tactics, and locations associated with IS areas of activity. When you combine both claimed and unclaimed operations, the total stands at 125 attacks, which signifies a 15% decrease from the previous month.


This intriguing development compels TRAC to consider whether the Islamic State is employing a consistent “strategy of deliberate silence” even with regard to unclaimed operations.


While there was an overall decline in attacks, there are certain areas that did see an uptick in activity, most notably Uganda with five claimed attacks after a relatively quite period since June 2023. Since Islamic State established a new organizational structure “Mekteb-i-Furkan” in September, a framework that operates under the guise of a bookstore and purportedly sends IS fighters from Turkey disguised as humanitarian aid workers to Sub-Saharan Africa, it is TRAC's assessment that we will see more attacks coming out under this new framework in places like Uganda, Mali, and Sudan.

TRAC Incident Report:

Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) Militants Led an Armed Assault on Nigerien Security Forces in Doulgou, Tillaberi, Niger

On 30 October 2023, Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) militants led an armed assault on a Nigerien convoy in Dogoa, Tillaberi, Niger. By the photos that were provided, it appears that the group killed at least 13 security forces and seized a wide variety of equipment and supplies, including guns and ammunition.


ISGS has been attempting to flex some of its muscles in recent propaganda photosets shared by the group. This is the second to be shared this week by the group that normally does not even issue formal claims.


While this ISGS photoset is not as grandiose as the last one from 29 October in Takanamat, Tahoua Region, Niger, in terms of arms supplies that were seized, it is evident that ISGS is trying to send a message to all their adversaries. In recent weeks ISGS has been suspected of attacking a wide variety of state forces and militant groups alike, indicating that the group is employing a new strategy and is re-opening different fronts of conflict with almost everyone and anyone.

TRAC Incident Report:

Al-Shabaab Executes Abdulqadir Ali Adan Habib, AKA Diktoorka, Suspected of Being a Somali Intelligence Infiltrate, Buy Aqable, Hiran, Hirshabelle, Somalia

On 31 October 2023, al-Shabaab militants purportedly executed Abdulqadir Ali Adan Habib, aka 'Diktoorka,' accusing him of being a NISA spy. The killing occurred in Buq Aqable district, west of the Hiran Region. Currently, no videos or photos of the execution have been released by al-Shabaab, as proof of execution.


The National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) plays a crucial role in the fight against al-Shabaab. Particularly, undercover infiltrated agents such as Adan Habib are useful resources to both locate the group meeting point and the position of its leaders.


Adan Habib was infiltrated in the Hiran region, an area in which al-Shabaab is currently advancing and holding strategic posts. It is not clear how Adan Habib identity was discovered, leading TRAC to deduce that al-Shabaab possesses a counterintelligence branch. Such an asset is likely to interfere with NISA activities, thus jeopardizing the efforts to locate al-Shabaab strategic bases and key figures.


Further, TRAC does not rule out that al-Shabaab interrogators tortured Adan Abih before killing him, with the aim of obtaining information regarding NISA’s activities in Hiran.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Incident Report: Searches Underway after Five Radicalized Islamists Escape from the Mornaguia Prison, Manouba Governorate, Tunisia

TRAC Claim Report: Baloch Republican Guards (BRG) Militants Destroyed a 36-Inch Diameter Gas Pipeline Following from Sui to Karachi, with an IED, Balochistan, Pakistan

TRAC Incident Report:

as-Sahab Media (al-Qaeda Central Command / AQC): "This is Gaza that Disturbed the Zionist-Crusaders' West"

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