NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

1 May 2024

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 26 April 2024, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) militants detonated an IED targeting Togolese army forces between Tempetal and Sempre, Togo. The militants reportedly destroyed the vehicle in its entirety, likely killing those on board.


While JNIM was last suspected to have carried out an attack in Togo in early March 2024, they have long aimed to move south into the littoral states in an attempt to increase their longevity as a group. The N17, as well as the nearby N16 and N18 have proven invaluable for this goal of moving south. The group’s ability to control these roadways is directly linked to their ability to be able to move militants safely south, as they are the gateways towards JNIMs long-desired expansion, making unfettered access critical.


Being able to carry out attacks in Togo is clear and presents evidence that these militants are succeeding in their endeavours and likely is one of many groups already embedded in the country. JNIM has been noted previously to attack border checkpoints, causing security forces to flee, and thus breaking through that way. This method is highly concerning as not only does it allow the militants to move into the country, a task that admittedly is not that difficult considering the porous borders, but also able to easily bring in weapons and IED’s, such as the one seen during this incident.

Besides making moves on Togo, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) has had their eye on moving into Côte d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast). While rumours of this have been circulating since at least May 2023, but this is the first hard proof.


This long-term strategic goal for JNIM is in part due to their normal expansionist goals, but also as a fail-safe to ensure the group’s longevity. The more states the group can establish themselves in, the more difficult they are to rout out of the region in its entirety. This is currently a significant issue in Burkina Faso and Mali, as no matter how successful the government is in one nation, without the other nation having the same success, it is without true benefits, as the group remains looming over the region. To put it plainly, JNIM is a cross-border group, and the more countries they are in, the longer their staying power is in the region.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report: Riots Erupt Between Members of the ‘Jewish Brigade’ and Pro-Palestine Activists on the Day of the Anniversary of Italy’s Liberation From the Nazi-Fascism, Milan, Northern Italy

On 25 April 2024, riots broke out between activists of the Jewish Brigade movement and members of the Palestinian community, in the proximity of Piazza Duomo, in central Milan, on the Day of the Anniversary of Italy’s Liberation from Nazi-Fascism. Volunteers of the not-for-profit group known as City Angels intervened to contain the situation, without being able to prevent violent scuffles. The pro-Palestines protesting against the crowd gathered in Piazza Duomo for the celebrations. Smoke bombs and bottles were thrown in the square and against the police, while the barriers were pushed to prevent the intervention of Mayor Giuseppe Sala and the other participants.


The pro-Palestine protests took place amid global escalating tensions due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in the Gaza Strip, in light of the imminent long-announced high-intensity military operation in Rafah, to neutralize the last bastions of the jihadist group still surviving in the city’s underground.


Considering that April 25th holds significant historical importance in Italy, commemorating the liberation from the Nazi-Fascist dictatorship through the intervention of US troops, heightened security measures should have been implemented to ensure public order during the festivities.


However, the occasion became entangled in political discourse due to the ongoing efforts of the current far-right government to reform the constitution. Their proposal, known as the 'premiership,' seeks to elect the head of government directly by citizens in a single round for a five-year term. The ballot would list prime minister candidates alongside supporting parties. Opposition views this initiative as a threat to democracy, likening it to a disguised dictatorship.

TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) Militants Led an Armed Assault on Civilians, Burning 190 Houses in Nauacha, Eráti District, Nampula Province, Mozambique

On 25 April 2024, Islamic State Mozambique (IS-M/Shabaab Cult/Wilyat Muzinbik) militants led an armed assault on Christians in Nauacha, Eráti District, Nampula Province, Mozambique. The militant reportedly captured and killed one and razed 190 houses during the assault.


Attacks in Nampula Province are highly significant, as the group rarely attacks the province, with only a handful to speak of that have been claimed in the same way. IS-M intends on making its debut in a big way, as this incident was released in tandem with two other attacks in Nampula, with a combined of over 230 houses being razed.


This expansion southward is highly indicative of IS-M’s continued security in Cabo Delgado. As the Mozambican government continues to struggle with subduing the militant group, they will only continue to grow southward, and with devastating effects, like seen in this incident.


It should also be noted that the razing of homes is an effective way to move the local Christian population further south. If the ultimate goal is to truly create an Islamic state for this group, then it is only logical that they cannot spend the time they should be governing, and persecuting Christians. This makes it highly strategic for the group to burn anything tying local Christians to the land.

TRAC Incident Report: Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Militants Raided the Syrian Armed Forces (SAA) 46th Regiment Positions & Captured a T-72 Tank, in Aleppo, Syria

On 27 April 2024, Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants raided the Syrian Armed Forces (SAA) 46th regiment positions in Aleppo, Syria. The militants captured a T-72 Tank and claim to have caused significant casualties among government forces. As a response, SAA fired artillery units fired at militant positions in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib.


Notably, this is the second T-72 tank captured by Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants within one month. While HTS appears to be frequently underestimated by all global powers given al-Joulani carefully constructed image of HTS being a ‘legitimate government’, they continuously display a level of violence and a capacity for large-scale offensives that should not be easily dismissed. Also, the ability to capture and operate a T-72 tank further demonstrates their ability to acquire and utilize heavy weaponry, posing a serious threat to government forces and civilians alike.

 

(Statement) Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Issue Guidance for Mujahideen in Formation on the Front Line, Pakistan

TRAC Incident Report: National Resistance Front (NRF) Attacked a Taliban (IEA) Checkpoint, Between Shahid Square & Taymani Square, PD-15, Kabul, Afghanistan

(Anonymous Anarchist) Suspected Anarchists Arson of Two Tesla Vehicles in Berlin, Germany



TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          X          Instagram