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In a world riddled with reports of unrest and violent activity of varying ideologies, South Korea is one country whose name is rarely mentioned, if at all. South Korea is normally considered to be an extremely safe country with a low crime rate, particularly as it relates to homicides, but in recent days, the country has seen events take place that have left authorities on high alert.
On 21 July 2023, in the southeast capital of Seoul, a man in his 30's stabbed passersby on a street, killing one and injuring three others. While this incident is believed to be an isolated one, it may very well have been the catalyst that inspired a lone wolf attack that takes place less than two weeks later.
On 03 August, a 23-year-old 'lone wolf' attacker rammed his vehicle into four people on a pedestrian walkway before getting out of the vehicle and randomly stabbing at least nine others in a busy shopping center. This attack took place during rush hour, near the Seohyeon subway station in the Bundang neighborhood of Seongnam.
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What followed the very next day was a peppering of online threats to carry out similar attacks at various subway stations, to include a repeat attack at the Seohyeon subway. Two days later, an IED threat was also posted online by an unknown writer who warned that a bomb would detonate on 07 August at 2:00 am local time, at the Jeju International Airport on Jeju Island. The perpetrator also threatened to carry out a knife attack against those who would leave the airport facilities.
While it is evident the intent behind the 03 August attack and the subsequent threats is to disrupt travel throughout the country, particularly to and from Seoul, the components that aren't so clear are the 'who' and the 'why.'
According to police, the 23-year-old perpetrator made incomprehensible statements upon his arrest, giving TRAC cause to speculate that the suspect may have been speaking in another language. Additionally, the vehicle-ramming / knife attack certainly echoes tenets of Islamic State tactics; and with a Muslim population of 150,000-200,000 in South Korea, TRAC cannot rule out that these events were inspired by Islamic State.
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TRAC Insight:
Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) Officially Denies in a Statement
that They Murdered the Islamic State (IS) Caliph
Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi in Idlib, Syria
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Statement released by Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari | |
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On 03 August 2023, Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari, the new official voice of Islamic State Central Command, announced the death of Caliph Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi in a bombshell audio message. Not only did they disclose the death of the Caliph, but they also admitted that he was killed in battle with Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants in Idlib earlier this year. According to al-Ansari, HTS has handed over the body of Caliph Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi to the Turkish intelligence services to show their loyalty to ‘Atatürk’ (the father of Turks). The message went on to announce that Islamic State has named Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qureishi as their new Caliph. He was identified by al-Ansari as a seasoned member of the jihad who has been resisting US occupation in Iraq since 2003 and al-Ansari further reiterates the group’s animosity toward everyone it deems an adversary and calls on IS fighters all around the world to pledge allegiance to the new Caliph.
However, on 04 August 2023, a statement issued by a security official of Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) circulated on social media platforms, denies the claim released by Islamic State Central Command according to which HTS murdered IS’ Caliph Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi during an armed confrontation in Idlib and handed over his body to Turkey.
Which begs the question, why would HTS release a statement, when HTS is trying to gain credibility in the West and killing the Caliph would draw a lot of goodwill from the Western world? Likely, this is a statement about the optics behind Islamic State’s accusations that HTS purportedly gave the Caliph’s dead body to Turkey. If true, the larger Syrian community would see HTS as operating at the behest of Turkey and will also draw HTS into Islamic State’s sight lines who have been basically leaving HTS alone.
It is important to note, the location where this armed assault took place. IS does not have a strong presence in Idlib and the region mainly falls squarely under HTS control. Despite that, we can’t overlook the fact that three out of the four IS Caliphs have been killed in the Idlib province in just a matter of five years.
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Considering the vast iron-grip control of HTS over Idlib, it is nearly impossible for Islamic State, or any other group for that matter, to operate in Idlib without HTS’ knowledge. TRAC contends that HTS has been voluntarily hosting IS Caliphs over the years and either decides when to reveal the Caliph’s location or merely chooses to assassinate the Caliph themselves when it is convenient for HTS, and most especially, their leader, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani. As such, the HTS statement may also have the dual purpose of publicly reassuring Islamic State that they had no part in the death of the Caliph.
It is important to note that Joulani is not the only person of authority in HTS; three others behind the scenes are Abu Maria al-Qahtani, Ahmed Zakour, and Jihad Abdul-Karim al-Husseini. Any one of the four men could be possible targets of assassination for the Islamic State, as they all are known to travel in public, during broad daylight around Idlib. But we cannot ignore the fact that Islamic State has been creating "WANTED" posters, advocating for Joulani's death.
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TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for July 2023
(Insiders go Silent; Major Threat Areas: Syria, Nigeria, Niger)
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Part of an IS Meme, entitled "Silence," depicting ISK Suicide Bombers over U-Boats with country names listed | |
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TRAC assiduously monitors official Islamic State channels. Along with the broader Intelligence Community, TRAC has noted the precipitous decline in claimed attacks through the official IS media diwan. IS officially claimed a meager 57 attacks in July 2023, a sharp 22% decrease from the previous month. However, this number can be misleading, as TRAC has seen unclaimed IS attacks significantly outpace official claims this year, although July's numbers were less daunting.
Islamic State has warned western analysts and reassured IS followers that their silence is not a sign that the organization is waning in power and operational capability. In fact, 'silence' is their watch word, which was depicted on a recently circulated meme showing Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) suicide bombers watching U-boats labeled as countries.
To add to this, in an interview published in al-Naba #349, released a year prior, an operational commander in the Syrian badia region was quoted as saying, “. . .what the mujahideen in the desert hide is greater than what they advertise.” TRAC has to take the Islamic State at their word here.
Underreporting is a strategy that seems to be working on the majority of western observers, as many claim “the Islamic State is dead,” especially in their heartland of Iraq and Syria. This is a common refrain that plays into Islamic State’s deceit. TRAC, however, maintains that the strategy of underreporting is intentional and it allows IS time to regroup under the radar.
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TRAC Video Report:
Simon Ekpa, Self-Proclaimed Prime Minister in Exile of the Biafra People Releases Video Stating the Biafran People Stand in Solidarity with Niger Coup, Mali, Burkina Faso;
Biafran People Will Fight Against Nigerian Oppression in
Lathi, Päijänne Tavastia, Finland
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On 14 April 2023, Simon Ekpa, a Biafran agitator and disciple of the Independent People of Biafra (IPOB) leader, Nnamdi Kanu, announced himself the Prime Minister in Exile of the (imagined) government of Biafra. Ekpa informed the United Nations of his move, seeking legitimacy from the governing body.
Ekpa has also been named as the founder and commander of the Biafran Liberation Army (BLA), a new militia fighting Nigerian troops for Biafran independence. During the contentious Nigerian elections, Ekpa called for a sit-in of the Biafran people, forbidding them to take part in an 'illegitimate enterprise.' On 06 April 2023, prior to announcing himself as 'Prime Minister,' Ekpa announced that the BLA had commenced “Operation Sanctity” against Nigerian troops. According to Ekpa, this move came as Nigerian troops were unduly harassing Biafran people and in response to mysterious kidnappings assumed to be at the hands of Nigerian troops.
On 07 August 2023, Ekpa released a new video announcement of solidarity with the military juntas of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger Republic, and it comes as a call for Pan-Africanism. What the announcement really is, however, is an attempt to legitimize action against the Nigerian government, which the Biafran people view as illegitimate. Ekpa would see the Biafran Liberation Army (BLA), IPOB, with his government in exile overthrow the Nigerian government; but it is doubtful that the Biafran’s have the power to do that at this time. Further, it is highly unlikely that the military juntas in these failed or failing states in the Sahel will send troops to support the Biafran people. TRAC assesses that this video is just Ekpa posturing, but his intentions show how far he is willing to push the Biafran people from the safety of his exile.
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TRAC Incident Report: Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Double-Tap IED Attack Targeting UAE-Backed Soldiers, Killing One & Injuring Six, between Amjser & Al-Qashaber, in Mudiyah, Abyan Governorate, Yemen | | | | |
