NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

18 September 2025

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 12 September 2025, al-Shabaab launched a dawn assault on Somali National Army (SNA) and allied militia positions in El Dher, Galgaduud, and seized complete control of the town. At least 61 soldiers were reportedly killed and 72 wounded, with a large quantity of weapons, ammunition and vehicles captured by the attackers. Only 11 al-Shabaab militants are said to have been killed. The group had not attacked El Dher for some time, and the sheer speed and scale of this blitz-style raid overwhelmed the defenders, causing an abrupt collapse of government control.


This is a major setback for Mogadishu. It illustrates not just a single battlefield loss but a systemic vulnerability: hard-won territorial gains in central Somalia remain extremely fragile without a permanent, well-supplied state presence. Local militias used as stopgaps are no match for al-Shabaab’s disciplined militants, who have perfected mobile warfare and massed assaults. The fall of El Dher shows how quickly months of security operations can be undone in a single morning if regular troops do not garrison towns with adequate logistics, intelligence and air support.


The attack also underlines al-Shabaab’s evolving operational art. By concentrating forces on an outlying town and employing surprise and heavy weapons, it inflicted a staggering casualty ratio, more than 130 SNA personnel killed or wounded versus just 11 militant fatalities. This mirrors al-Shabaab’s methodical push in Hiran, where it first captured smaller towns such as Moqokori and Maxaas before threatening larger hubs. El Dher’s loss signals that al-Shabaab retains the ability to mount large, coordinated offensives, and that without a significant shift in Somali and partner strategy, even flagship offensives in central Somalia risk being rolled back.

Other Developments

(Poster) Al-Qaeda-Linked Insiders Share a Propaganda Poster Threatening Attacks in the United States in Response to the Ongoing Israeli Operations in Gaza

On 13 September 2025, al-Qaeda–linked accounts on social media circulated a propaganda poster produced by Yaqeen Media (Pakistan) to mark the 24th anniversary of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the United States. The image, titled “9:11” in large, blood-red script, visually and textually connects the destruction of the Twin Towers to U.S. foreign policy and the conflict in Gaza. The red colouring evokes bloodshed, both from the plane attacks themselves and from subsequent wars and casualties.


The accompanying Urdu text asserts that the “real reason” for the 9/11 attacks was American support for Israel, framing the mass killing of civilians in New York as a retaliation for Palestinian deaths. It then draws a direct line from those attacks to current Israeli operations in Gaza, suggesting that the ongoing war and Israel’s occupation of Gaza City could provoke another 9/11-style attack. This is a precise instance of threat-signalling: the poster does not explicitly call for violence, but it normalises the idea that spectacular terrorist attacks are a justified response to U.S. and Israeli actions.


Visually, the poster blends iconic imagery of 9/11 with symbols of the Palestinian cause. The left panel shows a ruined cityscape with a child holding a Palestinian flag, facing burning debris and an approaching aircraft, while the word “Gaza” drips in blood-coloured letters across the bottom. This design is meant to equate Palestinian suffering with the destruction of New York, presenting the latter as a consequence of U.S. policy rather than an unprovoked atrocity. By merging these symbols, Yaqeen Media and the networks sharing it aim to keep 9/11 in the militant movement’s collective memory, frame it as legitimate retaliation, and prime audiences for the idea that similar attacks could and should happen again in the present context.

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Anarchists Arson of Two High-Voltage Pylons Causes Mass Power Outage for 50,000 Citizens, in Treptow-Köpenick/Johannisthal, Berlin, Germany

On 9 September 2025, a significant power outage struck Berlin after a fire broke out on two high-voltage pylons in the Treptow-Köpenick/Johannisthal area. The incident cut electricity to roughly 50,000 households and disrupted essential services, including street lighting, emergency numbers, and several S-Bahn train lines (S45, S46, S47, S8, S85, S9). Firefighters were able to extinguish the blaze, but police have since opened an investigation into suspected arson. Grid operator Stromnetz Berlin has described the disruption as one of the most significant outages in recent years.


The most likely suspects to have deliberately razed the two high-voltage pylons are anarchist. By targeting power infrastructure rather than people directly, they inflict significant disruption on everyday life while drawing maximum public attention. Such acts are designed to damage public confidence in state services and demonstrate that critical infrastructure is vulnerable, which is a hallmark tactic of extremist sabotage operations.


The extent of this attack should be of grave concern to the German government and authorities. TRAC has repeatedly warned about the growing left-wing threat from Anarchists, not just in Germany but across Europe, North and South America. This, in combination with the publicly known and accessible key infrastructure targets, such as railway cable shafts, electricity pylons, or even power plants, is a significant threat to Germany’s security.


TRAC has long been reporting on Anarchists doubling down on their targets, moving from smaller arson attacks on vehicles and buildings to increasingly targeting critical infrastructure such as electrical supplies and telecommunication networks. As anarchist continue to be successful in destroying electrical pylons and telecommunication relay antennas, they can convey their message to a much broader audience than by merely burning down a vehicle as an act of solidarity.

TRAC Incident Report: Over 50 Abducted as Bandits Target Worshippers at Mosque during Morning Prayers, in Gidan Turbe, Tsafe LGA, Zamfara State, Nigeria 

On 14 September 2025, at about 5:30 a.m. during morning prayers, gunmen suspected to be loyal to notorious bandit leader Ado Aleiro abducted more than 50 worshippers from a mosque in Gidan Turbe, Tsafe Local Government Area of Zamfara State, Nigeria. The mass kidnapping took place as congregants were performing Fajr (dawn) prayers, a time when mosques are known to be full and worshippers are unarmed and distracted. Initial reports suggest the attackers arrived on motorcycles, surrounded the building, and herded victims away before security forces could respond.


Targeting a mosque during prayers serves several strategic purposes for criminal and insurgent groups in north-west Nigeria. It shocks the public by violating a sacred space, spreading fear well beyond the immediate victims and undermining confidence in both religious and federal authorities. It also provides kidnappers with a large, predictable pool of hostages at a known time and place, allowing them to maximise numbers with minimal resistance. In Zamfara, where Ado Aleiro’s network has been under increasing pressure from government operations, such a brazen attack can be interpreted as both retaliation and a show of strength.


The timing also reflects the bandits’ shifting tactics. Security forces recently intercepted several of Aleiro’s men and stepped up efforts against his smuggling routes, which are crucial for moving weapons, fuel and stolen cattle across state lines. By striking a mosque in Tsafe LGA, Aleiro’s group not only replenishes its bargaining chips for ransom but also sends a message to residents: cooperation with the state carries risks. Mass kidnappings like this one have become a hallmark of the north-west’s bandit crisis, blurring the line between criminality and insurgency as groups use hostage-taking not just for money but for leverage in negotiations and to demonstrate the state’s inability to protect its own citizens even in places of worship.

(Video/ Right-Wing Extremism) National Socialist Network (NSN) Jacob Hersant Releases Propaganda Video: “We Must Train our People to Understand and See the Jews as Aliens”


TRAC Incident Report: Police Discover a Van Packed with Sticks of Explosives Near a Shopping Mall, Mae Sai Sub-District, Mae Sai District, Chiang Rai Province, Near the Border with Myanmar, Thailand


(Photos) Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Circulates a Photoset, Depicting its Militants Training at the ‘Commander Almansour Ag Kassam’ Bootcamp, Mali

TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          X          Instagram