Weekly Analyst Review

26 July 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

On 24 July 2023, locals reported that a new Islamic State West Africa (ISWA/ Wilayat Gharb Afriqiyah) faction, led by an unnamed leader, has set up shop in the Niger-Nigerian borderlands that stretch from Logo for 33km to Walada in the Diffa Region of Niger, between the N1 highway and the Nigerian border.

It was inevitable that Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) would set up a splinter cell in this region considering the group has had their eyes on the N1 region around Diffa City for months.

The Nigerian-Niger border is porous and stretches for more than 1500km from Chad in the East to Burkina Faso in the West and is the most important border region for ISWA, even more so than the Cameroon-Nigeria border.

A joint Niger-Nigeria CTO that lasted from 6 May 2023 – 28 May 2023 and was focused on expelling ISWA militants from their stronghold in Arege, Borno State, Nigeria. Authorities purportedly "neutralized" 55 ISWA militants; even if that were true, 55 ISWA militants is a mere drop in the ocean compared to the thousands of fighters ISWA has at its disposal.

TRAC posits that the reason this specific 33km-long area was chosen as the base for this new faction is because it has multiple separate deposits of fresh water, the most valuable resource for militants living off the land in drought-stricken Africa.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) Attack Results in Six Soldiers Injured, Naranjitos, Tame, Arauca, Colombia

On 21 July 2023, a Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) detonated at a military checkpoint located in the proximity of the Naranjitos Army base, in the municipality of Tame, Arauca, leading to the injury of six Colombian Army soldiers and the death of the two occupants of the vehicle.

According to military sources, the explosive charge detonated prematurely, preventing the perpetrators from abandoning the vehicle.

TRAC does not rule out that this incident is the work of the National Liberation Army (ELN), who notoriously operates in the department of Arauca. If true, this would be a violation of the ceasefire pact agreed between the Government and ELN representatives on 09 June 2023, at the end of the third cycle of peace negotiations held in Cuba.

However, days following the incident, the National Liberation Army (ELN) released a statement on social media denying any responsibility for the VBIED attack and further confirmed their commitment to the bilateral ceasefire.

It should also be noted that the area of Tame has also featured the presence of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) dissident groups. More than two months ago, on 06 May, Army sources reported on the execution of two military operations that led to the discovery of 14 IEDs placed by the ELN, as well as the FARC dissident groups of 'GAO Estructura 10' and 'GAO Estructura 28' in rural areas of the Arauquita and Tame.

TRAC Incident Report:

Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Claims to Have Targeted UAE Mercenaries with Mortar Strikes in Mudiya, Abyan, Yemen

On 23 July 2023, Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) militants claimed to have targeted UAE mercenaries with a mortar strike in Abyan Governate in Yemen, although no fatalities have been reported. It should be noted that AQAP frequently claims responsibility for attacks in Abyan.

What TRAC finds interesting about this particular attack is the photoset provided as proof of the attack. Instead of having images of a designated mortar crew, the pictures appear to be more propaganda-like than an actual attack, as the various members of the cell are all given the chance to fire the mortar, while carrying their flag.

TRAC Incident Report:

Houthi (Ansarallah) Militants' Attempted Assassination of

Major General Sultan Al-Arada, Using an IED,

Foiled in Marib Governorate, Yemen

Mohamad Ali Hussein al-Qadri

The Marib governate police recently released a report indicating they had foiled a 27 June 2023 terrorist plot by the Houthi (Ansharalla) to assassinate Major General Sultan al-Arada, a member of the Presidential Leadership Council.

The attack was said to have been planned by a cell led by Mohamad Ali Hussein al-Qadri and involved planting and remotely detonating an IED on the morning of Eid al-Adha. Authorities report that Marib’s security services were able to stop the assassination in time and apprehended the Houthis involved in the attack.

The subsequent confession of the cell leader, al-Qadri was then aired on a Yemeni TV channel, explaining how he communicated with the Houthi leadership during the planning of the attack.

Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council is an internationally recognized executive body composed of 8 people, aiming at representing the Yemeni government during the civil war in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. General Sultan Al-Arada has been sitting on this committee since 2022, as well as serving as governor of Marib since 2012. Therefore, his position in Yemeni politics is critical and a successful assassination by the Houthis, especially during an important Islamic holiday such as Eid al-Adha, would have been a considerable propaganda boost for the group.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Photo Report:

Eco-Fascist Activists Instrumentalize a Journalistic Article to Encourage Attacks on the National Power Grid, United States

TRAC Incident Report: Unidentified Assailant Vandalized Mosque and Attacked Individual With Spiked Club in Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Russia

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Jaish al-Adl [Jaysh al-Adl] Ambush Targeting a Police Vehicle Between Khash and Zahedan, Sistan & Baluchestan [Baluchistan], Iran

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