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At least since the beginning of May, France has been in a continual state of turmoil. The 27 June 2023 fatal shooting of a teenager, at the hands of police officers, in the Paris suburb of Nanterre only added to the chaos and France has been burning right in front of the world's eyes.
Following this shooting incident, residents of Nanterre carried out a protest outside the police station, while other rioters local to the area set tires and vehicles on fire, vandalized bus stops, set up barricades with garbage bins, and set off firecrackers. Although police responded with tear gas, it did not prevent numerous private and public buildings from sustaining damage.
Other areas such as Mantes-la-Jolie, Mulhouse, Dijon, and Bordeaux have seen similar protests and vandalism-motivated arson on police stations and government-owned buildings. What began as a community uprising has mutated into a country-wide revolt, with Marseille and many other Paris suburbs being the flashpoints.
|  | Portion of the 29 June 2023 statement released by al-Nusra, an unofficial al-Qaeda media outlet. | |
A few days after the shooting, al-Nusra Media, the unofficial media outlet for al-Qaeda issued a statement inviting French protesters to use bombs/IEDs to attack French police and military elements throughout the country.
Crusader France is burning with the protests of Muslim youth in
several cities. Protesters are burning and attacking municipalities
building, prisons and police stations. May God increase and bless.
Free protesters in France, use bombs to kill French police and
military elements. This would be better than migrating to the land of jihad.
(Translation of the statement put out by al-Nusra Media)
While, it is not unusual for a 'western-world' incident, such as this one, to catch the attention of and be celebrated by jihadi groups; it is a rare occurrence to see a jihadi organization putting out a specific call to action for Muslim youth to join in the ongoing protests. However, because the teenaged victim was an Arab Muslim living in a predominantly Algerian neighborhood, groups like al-Qaeda see a local violent response to the young man's death as 'better' than traveling to 'the land of jihad.'
It is likely that this call to action inspired a more targeted attack, that is being handled by authorities as an assassination attempt. On 01 July 2023, purported protesters committed an arson attack on the house of L'Haÿ-les-Roses Mayor, Vincent Jeanbrun, by ramming a vehicle into his home and then setting it on fire. Although the mayor was not at home at the time of the attack, his wife and two young children were home, sleeping. Jeanbrun's wife and children were fired upon with rocket-style fireworks as they fled the home, leaving his wife with a broken leg and other serious injuries and one of his children with burns.
It should be noted that al-Qaeda Central Command (AQC) claimed a 28 May 2021 knife attack in La Chapelle-sur-Erdre Town, Nantes City, France targeting three police officers, killing one after a similar call to action was made in "Manhattans Wolves Magazine."
The motive behind the attack on the Mayor's home is the fact that Vincent Jeanbrun is a member of the conservative 'Les Republicains' political party and has long been accused of having racist views, which made him an ideal target. As Jeanbrun, his political colleagues, and other French citizens have 'marched' in response to the attack on his home and family, TRAC posits that more targeted attacks like this will take place in the days to come.
To that end, White Nationalists around the world have been hailing the riots in France as the "race war" they've been anticipating. Much of the chatter in all the various milieus talk about taking advantage of the riots as a way to train in urban combat in the name of the white man. It should be remembered that in 2020, Boogaloo Boi and active duty US Air Force Staff Sergeant, Steven Carrillo used the BLM protests-turned-riots in Oakland, California as cover to kill one Federal courthouse guard and injure another. Therefore, another lone wolf attempting to do the same should not be ruled out.
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TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for June 2023
(Major Threat Areas: Syria, Iraq, and Turkey)
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Islamic State (IS) claimed operations increased 9.2% in June 2023 over May 2023 claims. Despite this slight increase, IS claimed attacks remain significantly down from the same period in 2022, when IS had 162 total claimed attacks. The recent dearth of claims is not indicative of, as some analysts claim, a lack of IS operational capacity. TRAC continues to attribute the lack of claim output to either be intentional in order to hide the spread of operations in certain wilayahs or it is a degradation in the IS media diwan and full communication between all wilayahs has not been restored; or a combination of both.
Despite statements by governments that Islamic State has been degraded, such as Iraq, who have touted that they have defeated Islamic State in several Governorates, and similarly, Nigerian officials, who praise their gallant troops for clearing 'terrorist enclaves' in Sambisa Forest, Borno State, Nigeria, Islamic State remains very active. While it is true that claimed attacks are down, unclaimed attacks have skyrocketed in the past few months. This presents a different reality on the ground that is reported by most analysts.
There is no objective reason to ignore the unclaimed attacks. The chatter about these attacks has become so prevalent in Islamic State insider channels on social media, not to mention these attacks bear the signature of Islamic State. It would be tantamount to negligence to see these attacks and not heed the message IS is sending: they remain and are expanding.
Further, the unclaimed attacks in our monthly round-up of Islamic State global operations provides us with a more robust view of IS movements. Unclaimed attacks will likely continue apace, largely communicated by Islamic State insiders who celebrate them on invite-only private social media channels. However, TRAC anticipates that claimed attacks will continue to fluctuate, but will remain low for the next few months. TRAC further deduces that IS is underreporting attacks as a feint, to hide numbers, to wick international attention off of their backs, and to reposition themselves in preparation for a big push. IS is telegraphing this push by re-releasing propaganda this month that advises on how to make hijrah, as well as providing new tips for making the trip to conflict zones.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Katiba Macina Militants Shoot Down Russian PMC Wagner Helicopter
in Macina, Ségou Region, Mali
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Photo of the original claim:
“A helicopter belonging to Wagner Mercenaries was shot down in Massina. God is great, praise be to God.”
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On 03 July 2023, Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wa ul-Muslimin (JNIM) militants belonging to Katiba Macina, claimed to have shot down a helicopter belonging to the Russian mercenary group, PMC Wagner in Macina, Ségou Region, Mali.
The Katiba in Macina is the largest of all the JNIM Katibas and enjoys more success compared to the group's other Katibas, due to the region's coveted fresh water source, fish, and protection from air strikes in the more swampy areas.
Wagner is one of the most well-funded and highly trained PMCs in the world and certainly the best operating in West Africa. Due to the secretive nature of Wagner's operations, the origin and destination of the helicopter are not readily known. It is notable that the JNIM claim made no mention of a pilot and/or crew members. If they had been killed, JNIM would have certainly included that fact in their claim, as a show of dominance for the benefit of the Malian locals. Thus, this all begs two questions; how was this helicopter downed in the first place; and where are the pilot and crew?
If the claim is true, this would also mark the first time ever that JNIM has downed any aircraft in the Ségou Region and if it was a PMC Wagner helicopter, it would demonstrate JNIM's robust offensive capabilities, as well as the level of insider information that is available to them. Additionally, this would be a huge morale boost for JNIM, who have been continually fending off an Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) onslaught into their strongholds in Mali for months.
Another note of importance regarding this JNIM claim is highlighted by the markedly more sophisticated design of the claim. The inclusion of the globe graphic in the background may be a subtle indication of JNIM's ambition to expand as far and wide as possible. However, the significant departure from their usual 'letterhead' format for publishing their claim may be indication of an unknown and unexpected collaboration.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Security Forces Seize Weapons, Arrest 6 "Object 21" Biker Gang Right-Wing Extremists in Upper and Lower Austria
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Seized items from the 26 June raid. | |
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On 26 June 2023, security services raided 13 houses hosting suspected members of the "Object 21" RWE biker gang in Upper and Lower Austria. The raid resulted in six arrests and the confiscation of hundreds of firearms, thousands of weapons components, 10,000 rounds of ammunition, unknown drugs, and Nazi accoutrements.
Austrian law forbids any activities that glorify the Third Reich and possessing Nazi or neo-Nazi memorabilia is illegal. Furthermore, this incident highlights the crime-terror nexus where Right-Wing Extremism and criminal biker gangs overlap. Many biker gangs are connected to the criminal underworld and have contacts that deal in weapons and drugs. Biker gangs are ideal for fostering RWE ideology because they are often made up of only or primarily men and are almost always all-white, especially in Europe and Australia. They are also adept at recruiting new members which makes them even more dangerous. Neighboring Germany experiences the same biker gang RWE phenomenon. Additionally, the secrecy isolation from others provides the perfect echo-chamber for biker gangs to radicalize within their networks.
Details about "Object 21" are scant, but it is clear that someone tipped the security services off about what was going on inside the organization or perhaps, the security had someone embedded inside the crew. With so many weapons on hand, it appears that the group was planning a big operation.
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TRAC Incident Report: Joint Police Operation Dismantles a Criminal Network Engaged in Smuggling Syrian Migrants, Drugs, and Arms into Europe, Spain | |
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TRAC Incident Report: Palestinian Militant, Hussein Khalayla, Carries Out Vehicle Ramming Attack & Armed Assault Injuring at Least 8, in
Tel Aviv, Israel
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TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) Ambush Left Two Taliban (IEA) Dead, in the Savkay District, Kunar Province, Afghanistan | | | | |
