NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

02 November 2022

 

Bottom Line Up Front

Islamic State Central Commands' global plans are adapting to add much more interconnectivity between each franchise; it is happening no where more so than in Africa. TRAC's 27 July 2022 assessment that Abuja was under a clear and imminent threat has been echoed with 'shelter in place' advisories from seven different embassies in Abuja, including the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, and Australia.

Today, we revisit the topic of Islamic State's interconnectivity, particularly the tighter coordination and heightened congruence between Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA). There are three specific locations: the cities of Tahoua and Maradi in Niger and Sokoto, Nigeria, in which the these locations form a triangle allowing ISGS and ISWA to be contiguous on two fronts and offering two different routes for ISWA to send reinforcements to ISGS in Mali.


TRAC confirmed that in mid-to-late September, some ISWA fighters had crossed from Nigeria through Niger and into Mali, with the sole purpose of reinforcing the fighting power of ISGS in the battle for Mali against JNIM and the Azawad Militias.  


Three days ago, on 30 October, a police checkpoint near the village of Dabira in Madarounfa, Maradi, Niger was assaulted. The fact that the assault was quickly reported and celebrated on Islamic State-affiliated channels makes TRAC certain the attack was carried out by Islamic State. Despite ISGS' presence in Niger, TRAC posits that this assault was carried out by ISWA because not only does Maradi lie on the border with Nigeria, it is also far east of where ISGS holds control. This incident represents a notable second route ISWA fighters are taking into Mali via Niger. Maradi lies on the northern border of Nigeria and is just 78 km away from the state of Katsina. So not only is ISWA reactivating old smuggling routes through Maradi, but also these ISWA reinforcements represent a second Katiba (or military battalion) coming into Mali via Niger.

Image: Militants Cross from Nigeria through Niger to Anderamboukane, Menaka, Mali. Dan Kassari, Niger seems to be an important border crossing between Niger and Nigeria.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Iran Has Brought the Production of Suicide Weaponized Drones

to the Next Level Causing Concern Among the

International Community

Image: Iranian Shahed-136 drone

Iran has stepped up their production of drones, which includes military surveillance and suicide drones, exporting its technology to Ethiopia and Venezuela in the attempt to increase its influence in the market, causing concern across Europe, Latin America, Africa and Central Asia. 


It is believed that Iranian drone manufacturers have also links with Chinese companies in relation to the production of some of the components.


Unlike other drones such as the weaponized drones used by Islamic State, Iran’s drones are called suicidal or 'Kamikaze' drones because the actual drone explodes, rather than drops a payload and returns for another attack. The benefit of the suicidal drone is it can’t be followed back to reveal the location of where the drone was deployed. Further, these new drones are capable of carrying approximately 45-kilograms (100-pounds) worth of a warhead and can be made to explode 10 to 20 meters over the selected target within a range of 150 meters when detonated.


Iran’s drone program, which has reached a mass production level, has been closely monitored by its regional rivals. It is feared that the knowledge gained by Iran from the use of its drones across the world and especially in Ukraine, could be used against Israel.

TRAC Incident Report:

Suspected Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP) Militants Assassinated a Mufti of the Pakistani Government, Ghulam Haqqani, in the Beshta Kharra Area of ​​Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Image:  Al-Mafsi Ghulam Farid Haqqani

On 01 November 2022, suspected Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP) militants assassinated a Mufti of the Pakistani government, Ghulam Haqqani, in the Beshta Kharra area of ​​Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.


Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISKP) has greatly expanded in the area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, committing daily attacks across the province. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa borders Afghanistan, which is currently ISKPs stronghold. The group has long been expanding into neighboring countries. 

TRAC Incident Report:

Large Scale Clashes Erupted between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and an Islamic State (IS) Cell, in the City of Dara’a, Syria

Image: Screenshot of the clashes taking place.

On 31 October 2022, large scale clashes erupted between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Free Syrian Army (FSA), and an Islamic State (IS) Cell in the City of Dara’a, Syria. Both sides claim to have inflicted heavy casualties on each other.


Insiders disclose that one of the IS field commanders in this province, Muhammad Harfush ‘Abu Tajicell’, is the main target of the operation.


In recent weeks, Dara’a has seen a large number of successful and high profile Islamic State (IS) attacks on the Syrian forces in the area. Only a few days ago, a meeting of FSA commanders was bombed, and three key commanders were killed.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Incident Report: Takfir wal Hijra Members Detained in Dagestan, Voronezh, and Moscow, Russia

Photo Report:

Police Recovered Drone Dropped Weapons and Arrested Two in R S Pora, Jammu and Kashmir, India and Pakistan

TRAC Incident Report:

‘Letzte Generation’ Climate Activists Glued Themselves to a Dinosaur Skeleton at Natural History Museum Denouncing Lack of Action Against the Climate Change Crisis, Berlin, Germany

TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          Twitter          Instagram