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Weekly Analyst Review

02 March 2022

Bottom Line Up Front

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On 26 February 2022, four re-circulated images of handwritten notes, “From Rome you [we] will raise the flag of punishment" circulated on Islamic State channels. Besides the mantra ‘remain and expand,’ another popular IS motto is “From Dabiq To Rome”. As such Islamic State propaganda specifically against Rome and the Vatican are commonplace. Italian Islamic State supporters used to circulate propaganda via Telegram, circa 2019 and it was mostly instructional guides on bomb making. However, these photos are reminiscent of the photo campaign made of global written messages of support for the Caliphate when it was first declared in 2014. Another similar campaign occurred in September 2019, which were created after al-Furqan issued an audio message from Baghdadi. Italy, given its geographical proximity to North Africa and historical context of the Abbasid Caliphate controlling Sicily in the 9th Century, has always been a target of the Islamic State. But Rome in particular, holding the historical significance of the illustrious European empire as well as home of the Vatican, was featured early on in Islamic State propaganda. From key boasts of eminent conquer within videos to elaborate CGI imaging, Rome is a popular topic for both supporters and members of IS. 

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

White Nationalist Telegram Channel Promote Modern Radical Racist Artist “What Are You Waiting For?”

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Image:  Screenshot from video entitled, "What Are You Waiting For?"

On 14 February 2022, a video circulated on Telegram promoting the video producer who goes by the pseudonym ‘Modern Radical’. TRAC first observed ‘Modern Radical’ in November of 2021 in a video entitled ‘Securing the Future for White Children’. It is important to note that the video is titled, "What Are Your Waiting For?" and is exactly the same title as the very famous Islamic State French foreign fighter video that was released at the height of the Caliphate in November 2014. The message is really powerful for those who are feeling both disaffected and ineffective in their cushy, first-world lifestyles. Yet, this is another example of white nationalists co-opting jihadist’s concepts. The overlying theme for all of ‘Modern Radical’s’ videos is “They Want You Dead.” which is repeated throughout the video producer’s work.

TRAC Incident Report:

Greek Anarchist Group ‘Direct Action Cells’ Claimed Seven IED Attacks on Seven Separate Targets;

Five in Thessaloniki and Two in Athens, Greece

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Image: Screenshot from video that includes CCTV footage of 01 February 2022 attack on journalist's home.

The Greek anarchist group 'Direct Action Cells' has gained somewhat of a momentum in the last months. Their tactics usually revolve around IED devices and they always target people directly. Interestingly, they don't always publish a claim for their attacks, but claim a bundle of attacks in one. This most recent group of claims included the 01 February 2022 attack on the house of SKAI journalist, Dimitris Kabourakis. Bundling claims is not uncommon for anarchists, but larger anarchist attacks employing IED devices are usually claimed fairly quickly, as they give the group a reasonable amount of attention. The anarchist scene in Greece is very much among the most brutal anarchist scenes in Europe. They frequently attack police officers, forces, and individual persons. They also often set a trend, which other anarchists follow, particularly in Europe, such as employing sledgehammers as a weapon in attacks.

TRAC Incident Report:

Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) Kidnaps 5 Médecins Sans Frontières Aid Workers, Fotokol,

Extreme North Province, Cameroon

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Images: Doctors Without Borders logo.

On the evening of 24 February 2022, armed gunmen suspected to be Islamic State West Africa (ISWA/ISWAP) stormed the MSF building in Fotokol, Extreme Nord, Cameroon. Three MSF workers, a Chadian, Senegalese, and French-Ivorian, and two Cameroonian guards were all kidnapped. Reports indicate that there was a robbery, based on evidence of a cracked safe, however, it is unknown if anything else was looted in the building. Cameroonian authorities are conducting searches for the kidnapped aid workers. While the Cameroonian authorities claim there is no evidence as of yet that leads them to conclude jihadists are involved, it should be noted that Fotokol, Extreme North Province, Cameroon has been a site of claimed Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) attacks as recent as 24 November 2021. The propaganda value of the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is huge. The MSF workers were kidnapped to perform a specific function, it is highly possible that the captives will soon be featured in ISWA propaganda. We note that it is likely ISWA needs the medical assistance over the ransom money. A recent spate of attacks on medical facilities, ambulances, and pharmacies has led TRAC to consider the state of health within the local militant population. It could be that the COVID-19 pandemic has hit ISWA as hard as it has the rest of the world. Other outbreaks are likely as well, such as Yellow Fever, which has been noted in Nigeria as recently as December 2021; and hemorrhagic fevers, such as Ebola, which are prevalent in populations that hunt and eat bushmeat. With ISWA’s forest lifestyle, eating bush meat is likely a big part of ISWA’s diet.


On Our Radar:

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The Mexican Army & Navy Arrested José Alfredo Cárdenas Martínez

(El Contador/Señor Cortés/El 90), an Operator of the Sinaloa Cartel, During a Baptism Celebration in Culiacán, Sinaloa, Mexico

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TRAC Incident Report:

The FSB Operatives Prevented an Islamic State Kavkaz/ Qawqaz Bombing Targeting a School in Kaluga, Russia

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TRAC Incident Report: Possible Active Shooter Event at Hanford Site (US Department of Energy), Richland, Washington State, United States 

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