Weekly Analyst Review

05 October 2022

On 01 October 2022 an armed assault attack took place against the Pakistani Police in Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan, which left four officers dead.

It's important to note that there are several militant groups that have conducted attacks in Karachi, but what makes this attack unique is that there are competing claims of responsibility by Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and jihadist Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISK-P). Each claim offered specific details regarding the attack, making it challenging to discern which group was actually behind attack.

On 02 October 2022, TTP published and issued their claim of responsibility for the attack, acknowledging the death of the four police officers, along with the 'martyrdom' of two, specifically named militants, who were said to have previously participated in multiple operations in Quetta and Karachi.

Two days later, on 04 October 2022, Islamic State Khurasan Pakistan (ISK-P) also claimed credit for this attack. While their claim did not specify the deaths of the four officers nor name any martyrs, ISK-P did name the specific neighborhood of Gulshan-e-Maymar, where the attack took place as proof. Further, Islamic State insiders are celebrating ISK-P’s expansion into “Southern Pakistan” with this competing claim of credit.

While competing claims are rare, they are not unheard of especially in Kashmir, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since IS insiders were celebrating the expansion, TRAC posits that ISK-P are the real perpetrators of the ambush.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for September 2022 (Major Threat Areas: Nigeria, Mozambique, and Syria;

Expansion to Benin)

Image: Islamic State Global Operations for September 2022

Compared to the previous month, September saw a 17% increase in the number of attacks on varied Islamic State interests. In the past month, Islamic State claimed responsibility for 143 attacks in different locations around the world and although high-activity areas like Iraq and Syria saw an 8% decrease, the number of operations conducted by the Islamic State there is still considered high.

The Sahel region also witnessed high activity as Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) announced its expansion into Benin; however, the highest number of attacks were carried out by Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) in Nigeria with a drastic 105% increase from August to coincide with their announced expansion into three new states i.e. Ondo, Edo, and Kano State in Nigeria. With this expansion, ISWA has now expanded to 17 states out of 36 since April 2021.

Keep in mind these numbers only represent "claimed" attacks, as there are many more incidents that occurred this month that TRAC attributes to the Islamic State.

TRAC Incident Report:

Al Shabaab Triple Suicide Car Bombings (VBIEDs) at Lama-Galaay Military Base in Beledweyne Suburb, Hiran State, Somalia

Image: Aftermath of the attack.

In the late morning of 03 October 2022, al-Shabaab twin suicide bombers (VBIEDs) targeted the Lama-Galaay military base in the Beledweyne Suburb, Hiran State, Somalia, located 300km north of Mogadishu. A third vehicle exploded en route to the Lama-Galaay military base.

Most of the 25 killed and 35 wounded were civilians, including the Minister of Health of Hirshabelle State, Zakariye Mohamed Ahmed and deputy governor of Hiran region, Abukar Sheikh Madey. The last al -Shabaab attack in Beledweyne occurred in March 2022 and today’s triple suicide bombings makes al-Shabaab’s fourth assault on the suburb of Beledweyne in 2022.

TRAC Incident Report:

Anarchist Cell ‘Nueva Subversión’ Claimed an Arson Attack Against 5 Trucks Belonging to the Aggregates Company Baeza, Puente Alto, Santiago Metropolitan Area, Chile

Image: Photos of two of the burned out Baeza trucks

On the evening of 01 October 2022, an arson attack was carried out by anarchists of the Insurrectionary Cell for the Maipo – New Subversion in defense of the Maipo river. The activists set 5 trucks of the aggregates company, Baeza on fire. The attack occurred in the commune of Puente Alto, Santiago Metropolitan Area, and caused 380 million pesos (nearly $19 million) of damage. According to the anarchist group, Baeza company is involved in environmentally unsustainable projects impacting the river Maipo.

Although the attack specifically targeted the Baeza family’s aggregates company in defense of the Maipo river, the claim released by the anarchist group also contained concerning threats directed to the implementation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP-11). This trade agreement involves 11 countries, Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Japan, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, and it is aimed at promoting economic integration and regional trade.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Russian Hacker Group 'Killnet' Launches Large Scale 'USA Offline' Campaign in 72-hour Website Blitz, United States

TRAC Incident Report: Joint & Simultaneous Operation Led to the Arrest of 11 Militants of an Islamic State Cell in Melilla, Nador, Granada, Morocco & Spain

TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State (IS) Insiders Celebrate Attack on German Tourists on Numbi Road Near Numbi Gate of Kruger National Park, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

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