Weekly Analyst Review

07 June 2023

Bottom Line Up Front

In the last two weeks, the state of Jalisco in Mexico added two more recently discovered clandestine mass burial sites, for a total of nine sites discovered this year alone.

On 25 May 2023 in the municipality of Tlajomulco, Jalisco, local authorities were alerted by an NGO and upon investigation, 104 bags containing human remains were discovered on a large property on the 'Camino a la Pedrera', in the Lomas de San Agustín neighborhood.

Seven of the nine sites discovered this year were located in Tlajomulco, a municipality that has long been disputed by drug cartels fighting for control of the territory. In 2014, the Los Zetas Cartel ruled the said municipality, however, Tlajomulco is now one of the operating bases of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

A little more than a week later, on 02 June 2023 on the outskirts of Guadalajara, another site was uncovered in a gorge in the municipality of Zapopan, where 45 bags of human remains were discovered. It should be noted that Zapopan is also a territory known to be under the control of CJNG, as the cartel is known to conduct their money laundering operations there.

According to authorities, the most recently discovered human remains belong to seven members of an alleged illegal call center who were reported missing between 20 and 26 May 2023. The call center purportedly was linked to CJNG and is said to have engaged in committing fraud against foreigners, especially elderly United States citizens. TRAC speculates that the said victims were murdered for fear that they reported to the authorities the illicit activities they were forced to carry out on behalf of their 'employer.'

Seven members of the call center who went missing and whose bodies are believed to be the bagged human remains found in the Zapopan mass grave.

As previously stated, nine clandestine burial sites have been located in Jalisco this year alone and the total body count is quickly adding up to hit the 200-count mark.

In 2022, 41 mass graves were discovered in Jalisco, inside of which at least 301 victims were placed and since the beginning of President Obrador’s administration, from 2018 to April 2023, at least 136 clandestine burial sites have been located by an NGO, which begs two questions: why are the NGOs finding the mass grave sites rather than state or federal authorities and who really holds the power in Mexico?

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

Locals Report Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wa ul-Muslimin(JNIM) in Burkina Faso Shifting Towards the Ghanian Border After Failure to Establish Operations on the Border with Ivory Coast

Locals report that Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda branch that operates in Burkina Faso and Mali is setting its sights on expanding deeper into the territory on the Ghanian border with Burkina Faso. This comes after the group had failed to establish on the Ivory Coast border, no doubt due to Ivorian security presence patrolling the border.

Additionally, there are local reports that JNIM used to have bases in Kulungugu, Pusiga, Pulmakom and Widana on the Ghanian side of the border with Burkina Faso; which sharply contrasts security forces' position that there is no JNIM activity insider Ghanian territory. However, this is not at all surprising that there are JNIM camps in Ghana and considering the high level of corruption, as it is throughout Africa, JNIM was no doubt allowed to establish after bribing the local security officials. They also likely used intimidation and coercion to force border guards to leave them to go about their business.

It is clear that JNIM adapts quickly to their circumstances thanks to their nomadic lifestyle and knowledge of navigation and desert survival.

Residents report that the N16 between Tenkodogo and Cinkanse in Burkina experience frequent assaults. JNIM already has control of the N22 highway in Burkina Faso leading into Djibo where they have the city under a blockade, and TRAC deduces that JNIM has employed the same tactics of ambushing security forces and food convoys, to take control of the N16.

The N16 is 105km (65+ miles) long and is strategic roadway since it leads to the JNIM border crossing at Cinkanse where the three borders of Burkina, Togo and Ghana meet. What is unusual is that those in the area report that the cell on the N16 goes from Cinkanse into Togo and then west into Ghana, as opposed to going into Ghana from Burkina Faso directly. The simplest explanation for this is that Ghana has reinforced their border with Burkina, but failed to reinforce the border with Togo.

That being said, back on 16 March 2023, Burkinabe security forces claimed that "multiple terrorists" were "neutralized" in Soudougui on the Togo border in Koulpelogo Province, Burkina Faso.

TRAC posits that JNIM will expand deeper into the Ghana-Burkina Faso borderlands, particularly in the most vulnerable areas like Kompienga. Additionally, recruitment into JNIM will continue to increase as a result of the military's incompetence and accidental killing of civilians in the area.

Nonetheless, it has to be said that Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) is also looking to expand into the previously stable parts of the region including Ghana, not to mention that this push by JNIM comes at a time when ISGS is actively seeking to expel JNIM from their strongholds in neighboring Mali, to ultimately take the city of Kidal in the Kidal Region of Mali. In the last week alone, there have been four ISGS attacks in JNIM strongholds in the Sahel.

It would be a huge propaganda and strategic win for ISGS if they managed to entrench in the Ghana borderlands. Islamic State insiders continue to hint at ISGS' presence in the area, celebrating the targeted assassination of members of the Ghanian interior ministry back in April 2023.

TRAC Incident Report:

Suspected Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Attack Targeting an Army Patrol in Ruma Upazila, Bandarban District, Chittagong Division, Bangladesh

Bandarban, Bangladesh

On 01 June 2023, Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) militants detonated an IED targeting an army patrol dispatched for conducting a CTO to dismantle a KNF training camp in the remote areas of Chilopi Para. The explosion resulted in the death of a 30-year-old soldier.

Reports further clarified that while KNF militants fled the scene upon seeing the security forces, they had randomly implanted IEDs beforehand which eventually resulted in the explosion.

Kuki-Chin National Front (KNF) has been engaging in terrorist activities in the remote hilly areas of Bandarban’s Ruma, Roangchhari, and Thanchhi upazilas through continued killings, abductions and employing other means to spread anarchy.

It is worth mentioning that Kuki-Chin National Army (KNA) is the armed wing of the KNF and that this incident came a week after KNA militants detonated an IED targeting construction workers in Ruma Upazila.

TRAC Incident Report:

Nigerian Military Claims to have Undertaken a Joint Operation

with the Civilian Joint Task Force (CJTF) Which Resulted in Eliminating 11 Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) Militants,

Sambisa Forest, Borno State, Nigeria

Photo taken from Operation Hadin Kai & CJTF, who claim to have eliminated 11 ISWA militants

Soldiers from Operation Hadin Kai conducted a joint counterterrorism operation (CTO) between 21 May and 04 June 2023. The joint forces penetrated Sambisa forest in Borno State, Nigeria. Sambisa is a known hideout for the militants. The operations focused on the axis of Damboa and Chibok LGA’s, which include the following villages to be cleared: Bale, Tirke, Mandari, Molgoi, Bego, Yarwa, and Ngurna.

While the official story from Operation Hadin Kai is that 11 ISWA elements were killed during the operation, TRAC remains skeptical of this number. With only three blurry pictures as proof of dead enemy combatants, it seems the story is overinflated.

The Nigerian military and their online mouthpieces have been giving a skewed view on the ground war against Islamic State West Africa, as Operation Hadin Kain rolls ever forward under the new leadership of Maj-Gen. Ibrahim Sambo Ali. Since Maj-Gen. Ali took the post he has boasted of grand victories in the counterterrorism space; however, the Nigerian military is not above padding the numbers and exaggerating successes.

On Our Radar:

TRAC Incident Report: Iranian-backed Shia Ashab al-Kahf Threatens New "Different" Operations Against United States' Forces in

Iraq and Syria

TRAC Video Report:

Police Forces Use Children as Human Shields in Order to Sedate Anti-Government Protests, Dakar, Senegal

TRAC Incident Report: Bandits Kill 37 Civilians in Reprisal for Refusing to Pay Protection Money in Raka, Filin-Gawa and Raka-Dutse of Tangaza LGA, Sokoto State, Nigeria

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