NewsletterHeader5.png

Weekly Analyst Review

12 June 2024

 

Bottom Line Up Front

On 03 June 2024, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) released footage of their first-ever weaponized drone strike against Turkish Armed Forces strongholds, which took place on 01 June 2024. It is believed that the group employed multiple explosive-laden first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drones for the attack.


The PKK's drone strike against the Turkish Armed Forces not only marks their first use of such technology but also signifies a notable advancement in their warfare capabilities. This development highlights how both terrorist and militant organizations are leveraging increased accessibility to technology to enhance their operations.


A lingering question is how the PKK acquired these drones. Iran, due to its mutual relationship with Turkey, would likely be hesitant to provide the PKK with weaponized drones and warfare technology, making it an unlikely benefactor. However, just four months ago, the Russian military began training the Syrian Armed Forces in weaponized drone warfare. Therefore, it is plausible that the PKK may have obtained these Russian drone schematics for their own use through illicit means.


Since the peak of the Islamic State Caliphate, militant groups have been striving to replicate the successful weaponization of drones used by IS. However, they have long struggled to achieve this. The onset of the Ukraine war has marked a significant shift, with the use of drones by militant organizations reaching unprecedented levels.


The war in Ukraine has spurred a massive increase in weaponized drone production.There has been a notable transition in both the types and quality of drones being manufactured for the conflict. Instead of relying on expensive and sophisticated technology, the drones produced for the Ukraine war utilize much cheaper and more expendable technology. Consequently, the average drone has a battlefield lifespan of approximately three days, with Ukraine replacing these drones at a rate of 5,000-10,000 per month. This disposability, coupled with the surge in drone production, has facilitated increased access and utilization of drones by terrorist organizations as weapons of war. It should be noted that the Ukrainians have circulated multiple instructional videos on how to adapt commercially purchased drones.

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report: Security Forces Apprehend a German Citizen of Moroccan and Polish Descent on Suspicion of Ties with the Islamic State Khurasan (ISK) Following a Job Application for Security Guard at Euro 2024 Football Tournament, Cologne-Bonn Airport, Germany

On June 8, 2024, reports emerged that security forces detained a 23-year-old German citizen of Moroccan and Polish descent, identified as Sofian T., on suspicion of ties with the Islamic State (IS). The suspect was apprehended along with his mother and sister at Cologne-Bonn Airport, although it remains unclear whether they were leaving or returning to the country. Sofian T. had applied for a security job at “side events” outside an undisclosed stadium in Germany. During the assessment of his application, authorities discovered that state security services had flagged him as a potential religiously motivated threat. Following his arrest, security forces searched his residence, seizing mobile phones, storage devices, a laptop, and €2,500 in cash. It was reported that the suspect had booked a one-way flight to Istanbul.


Investigations revealed that Sofian T. was involved with Islamic State Khurasan (ISK), which has recently expanded its operations in Europe beyond its traditional strongholds in Afghanistan and Pakistan. He had previously been rejected twice for security positions at a music festival and the Nürburgring, a well-known motorsport complex in Nürburg, Germany. Additionally, he was detained on suspicion of transferring $1,700 in cryptocurrency to ISK in September 2023.


This incident occurs amidst a continent-wide wave of operations targeting radicalized individuals planning lone-wolf attacks. This trend underscores the ongoing efforts of religiously motivated individuals to infiltrate mass events. Propaganda has urged lone wolves to carry out armed assaults on kuffar (infidels) at sporting events in Western countries, including Germany, where the UEFA European Football Championship ‘EURO 2024’ will take place from June 14, 2024, to July 14, 2024.

TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA/Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyah) Militants Armed Assault on Christians, Killing over 60, in Masali, Beni Region, North-Kivu Province, Congo (DR)

On 7 June 2024, Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA/Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyah) militants conducted an armed assault on the Christian village of Masali, North-Kivu Province, Congo (DR). The attack killed over 60, including an army officer.


This attack marks a significant escalation in violence against the civilian Christian population. ISCA is undoubtedly escalating its brutal tactics and their frequent targeting of Christians. The attack occurred amidst a week of nearly daily assaults on civilian populations by ISCA militants, indicating a sustained campaign of terror. The local Christian population is particularly vulnerable as security forces often flee at the first signs of conflict, leaving civilians defenseless.


Also, this attack, along with the destruction of homes and shops, exacerbates the humanitarian crisis and displacement in the region. The detailed announcement of the attack serves as potent propaganda, showcasing ISCA’s operational capabilities and bolstering their image as a formidable force. The seizure of military weapons and the successful retreat of the attackers underline their strategic planning and execution. The attack undermines confidence in local security forces and serves ISCA’s objective of gaining support from sympathetic local populations by portraying themselves as defenders against perceived enemies. This is part of the current campaign followed by other franchises in Africa.

(Poster / Right Wing Extremism) Accelerationists Share Several Stochastic Posters Featuring a Cutsified Cat and Incentives to Conduct Lone Wolf Attacks

On 12 June 2024, Accelerationists shared several stochastic posters featuring a Cutsified Cat and incentives to conduct lone wolf attacks on their Telegram channels. Specifically, the posters read “Your hate means nothing until you turn it into action”, “turn your sadness into hate”, and voting will not remove them”. 


The notorious Terrorgram Collective frequently disseminates stochastic propaganda aimed at inciting its followers to carry out lone-wolf attacks. While the poster might appear innocuous with its cutesy cat imagery, it is important to understand the serious intent behind it. The use of cats is a strategic choice by the right-wing community, leveraging the seemingly harmless and widespread appeal of cats to subtly convey their call to accelerate violence and initiate attacks. This tactic allows them to mask their malevolent messages under a veneer of cuteness, making it easier to share and spread their extremist ideologies unnoticed.


The poster featured an ‘accelerationism’ ideology, as it incites to carry out violent acts against. Accelerationists believe that there is no political solution to the problems that face Western societies and that only its collapse will allow for the establishment of a new world order for Aryan people. They frequently share stochastic propaganda in an attempt to inspire their followers to carry out lone-wolf attacks.

 

TRAC Incident Report: Suspected Islamic State (IS)-Linked Gunmen Attempt an Armed Assault on the United States Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon

TRAC Incident Report: Houthi (Ansarallah) Rebels Kidnapped Nine UN Staffers and Family Members Amidst Global Pressure, Sana’a, Yemen


TRAC Incident Report: Al-Shabaab Complex Offensive Captures Four Somalian National Army Bases & Leaves 59 Soldiers Dead, El Dher District, Galguduud State, Somalia

TRACFusion_Newsletter2.png

CLICK HERE FOR PAST WEEKLY BRIEFINGS

TRAC Logo_Primary_TransparentWhite.png
Facebook          X          Instagram