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On 14 August 2023, at 5:00 pm local time, Densus 88 officers raided the house of a suspected Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) supporter residing in in Bulak Sentul, Bekasi City, east of Jakarta, West Java. The suspect, identified as Dananjaya Ersening, 28, born in Purbalinga, was arrested after authorities discovered evidence of his adherence to the jihadist group.
After searching the suspect’s home, police officers found and seized multiple arms, ammunition, a bulletproof vest, a homemade pistol (ghost gun), as well as a substantial amount of IS propaganda material, such as a flag and a number of books.
According to the authorities, the suspect, who pledged allegiance (bay’ah) to the new IS Caliph, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, intended to carry out attacks on the Headquarters of the special operations, paramilitary, and tactical unit of the Indonesian National Police, known as Mobile Brigade Corps, as well as the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI). When the Indonesian branch of ISEA was much more active, their typical targets, besides churches, were police facilities and forces.
The extremist, who was an employee of a State-owned enterprise (BUMN) is also believed to have been very active on social networks spreading IS propaganda, particularly on Facebook and Telegram, where he joined a group engaged in raising funds on behalf of the IS in Syria.
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Given the arsenal of weapons and ammunition confiscated from the suspect’s house, along with the propaganda activities that he was engaged in online, TRAC doubts that the man arrested intended to carry out attacks as a lone wolf. It is highly likely that the jihadist was in contact with new, like-minded recruits within the Indonesian territory and was storing the arms in preparation for a large-scale attack ahead of the country’s elections scheduled for 14 February 2024.
It should be noted that this arrest came only two days after IS Central Command released the first official bay’ah photo report from Wilayah East Asia, which featured photosets of two Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) cells issuing bay’ah to the new Caliph.
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TRAC Video Report:
PMC Wagner Founder and President, Evgeniy Prigozhin,
Reports of Wagner Activity From Africa
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On 21 August 2023, Evgeniy Prigozhin, a Wagner founder, aired a new video, purportedly from Africa on his Telegram channel. Though Prigozhin does not reveal an exact location, it is most probable that he is reporting from Mali where it is most publicly known that Wagner PMCs operate. However, certain attributes of this video lead TRAC to suspect the high possibility that the video was created in Russia and the Wagner founder did not leave his homeland.
Prigozhin, appearing in a camouflage uniform with the Wagner logo on his chest, stands in the middle of a lifeless desert area in order not to be geo-located. In the background, there is only one clearly identifiable military vehicle with a few, seemingly well-armed individuals who are thought to be his bodyguards. It is likely that Prigozhin created the propaganda video in order to reinforce their renewed focus on Africa, specifically in the Sahel, as MINUSMA forces are leaving Mali. With MINUSMA leaving, attacks in Mali will increase and Wagner will further destabilize an already erratic situation. It should also be noted that Wagner’s so-called "protection" comes at a steep price tag for any nation seeking their assistance.
|  | Image (above) Islamic State insiders claim to have geo-located Prigozhin at a military base in Mali. | |
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Wagner is known for filling the void in African countries that used to work together with the French army. The reason Wagner is so eager to get a foothold in Francophone West Africa is because it will give Russia a base in the area, not to mention that their services are in high demand by the governments in Mali and Burkina Faso, among others, who get Wagner to do their dirty work such as killing civilians suspected of being jihadists.
Both JNIM and ISGS have increasingly been willing to take on Wagner fighters. After Mali and Burkina Faso, where the coups opened the door for jihadists to begin eating away at territories, especially along the largely porous borders, now the pro-Russia Niger joins the list of countries to have forcefully pushed democratic rule aside in favor of a military junta.
This is an ideal situation for Russian PMC Wagner to swoop in and work on the side of the armies of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. The Russian paramilitary groups is often contracted to assist in dire situations, however, grievances between the standing armies and Wagner PMCs are well known. Wagner forces are paid egregious amounts of money, with some accounts being as high as $2,000 USD a week, while many rank-and-file soldiers they work alongside are paid pittance if any wages at all. This leads to resentment between the locals and Wagner.
Wagner has not been heard from in Burkina Faso since last December when Ghana’s president accused Burkina of providing a gold mine to Wagner as form of payment for their services, which Burkina no longer denies. However, just because there are no reports of Wagner's activities in Burkina, TRAC cannot rule out that the group still operates in the country covertly. It should also be noted that Wagner officially opened offices and a training facility in Niger after the coup.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Anti-Regime Protests Demanding the Overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad and Expulsion of Russian and Iranian Forces Erupt in Suwayda [Sweida] and Dara’a Governorates, Southern Syria
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On 20 August 2023, significant anti-regime protests unfolded in Sweida, marked by a large turnout of demonstrators expressing their discontent with the current government. These protests came a week after the Assad government issued two decrees doubling public sector wages and pensions, sparking inflation and compounding economic woes for others.
Protesters gathered in various cities, demanding political reforms, greater civil liberties, and an end to corruption. One of the major demands is to overthrow the current President Bashar al-Assad along with the expulsion of Russian and Iranian forces from the country. To date, more than 42 protests have been recorded across the whole Sweida region and have also spread to the Dara'a Governorate.
These protests not only demonstrate the deteriorating socio-political situation of Syrian citizens but also indicate the fact that Syria is edging toward another collapse after the defeat of Islamic State's rule. This could certainly act as a catalyst for the fall of the 23-year regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but it is more likely that Assad will deal with the protests with an iron fist, which will result in a wave of human rights violations by the government in the name of "dealing with the demonstrators." To be clear, Assad will never voluntarily leave his position of power in Syria.
In either case, the world will have to face the consequences stemming from the destabilization of the Syrian socio-political system. The possible mass migration of Syrian refugees to Europe will precipitate a surge in far-right ideologies especially in the Western world. As for Islamist militancy, Islamic State (IS) will use this chaos to further advance their objectives of taking over the areas it held during the self-proclaimed Caliphate. Dara'a in particular has never been rid of Islamic State activity and is the most likely place that IS can take advantage of the protests.
While Islamic State does not have an extensive presence in Sweida, as mentioned above, Dara'a Governorate is a hotbed of IS militancy. Although the Assad regime would never admit that Dara'a is slowly falling into the hands of IS, TRAC is certain in its assessment that no security forces can enter or exit Dara'a without being ambushed by IS militants. As such, Islamic State has long launched a campaign to take over the strategic Damascus-Amman M5 Highway that passes through Dara'a.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Islamic State (IS) Insiders Celebrate Explosion That Killed an Unknown Number of Soldiers Including the "Head of the Military Council" at Military Base in Kouri Bougoudi, Tibesti Region, Chad
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Screenshot from the video released on social media by Islamic State insiders | |
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On 21 August 2023, Islamic State insiders celebrated an explosion inside a military base in Kouri Bougoudi, Tibesti Region, Chad that killed and injured an unknown number of soldiers. According to IS insiders, the "head of the military council and his entourage" were having a meeting at the time of the explosion.
Kouri Bougoudi has been on TRAC’s radar since we received information and a photo from sources on the ground back in March 2023 that Islamic State (IS) militants have an active gold mining operation in the town.
The fact that IS insiders knew that a military council meeting was taking place at the time of the explosion shows the access to information that these insiders have, and it has to be noted that when IS insiders share such specific information, such as who is in attendance at the site of an explosion, this is usually a sign of their involvement or, at the very least, the sources they have at the scene to report back.
Back in March, just 13 days after TRAC sources divulged that the gold mine was under Islamic State's command, suspected ISWA militants carried out an armed assault in Zouar, Tibesti Region. Although Zouar is an 18-hour drive away, it can easily be traveled in 13 days. It is TRAC's assessment that Southern Tibesti is the victim of Islamic State attacks launched from Kouri Bougoudi in the Northern part of the Region.
Chadian security forces also say the incident was an accident, but even if it was actually a bombing, the Chadian officials cannot afford to admit to a security failure in such a strategic area with access to gold mines and near the Libyan border. The fact that IS insiders knew that a military council meeting was taking place at the time of the explosion shows the access to information that these insiders have, and it has to be noted that when IS insiders share such specific information such as who is in attendance at the site of an explosion, this is usually a sign of their involvement.
The mountains of Tibesti Region make for an ideal hideout for militants who need access to fresh water in the vast desert expanse that characterizes the Chadian landscape. Back in March, just 13 days after TRAC sources divulged intel about the gold mine, suspected ISWA militants carried out an armed assault in Zouar, Tibesti Region and although Zouar is an 18-hour drive away, it is easily done in 13 days. It is TRAC's assessment that Southern Tibesti is the victim of Islamic State attacks launched from Kouri Bougoudi in the Northern part of the Region.
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TRAC Photo Report:
The Syrian Defense Ministry Released
Pictures of a Kamikaze Weaponized Drones which were Shot Down over Hama Province, Syria
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TRAC Incident Report: Islamic State (IS) Supporter, Rondell Henry, Pleads Guilty to Plotting Vehicle Attack into a Crowd at Dulles International Airport, Maryland, United States | | | | |
