Weekly Analyst Review

01 December 2021

Bottom Line Up Front


The Islamic State (IS) has been blamed for three previously unknown arson attacks that targeted an electrical station and embassy vehicles in Dushanbe and Parkhar, Tajikistan, a country that shares 1,357 kilometers (or approximately 843 miles) of border with Afghanistan. In Dushanbe, on 12 September 2021, a diplomatic vehicle was set on fire near the French embassy and 14 days later, a vehicle of a local Shia was set on fire, which is a consistent target of IS. On 14 October 2021, an electrical transformer supplying power to military installations was set on fire taking out electricity to the local military registration and enlistment office at the border with Afghanistan in the Parkhar region of Tajikistan. It should be noted that Islamic State has been specifically targeting electrical towers in Afghanistan as a part of their "Economic Warfare" campaign over 2021. In each attack the perpetrators remain at large and the fact that two of the attacks were inside the capital of Dushanbe should be of concern as future fires should be expected. Given that November 2019 was last claim by IS in Tajikistan, combined with the fact that the tactic of arson has never been used by IS cells in Tajikistan, these fires should not be merely written off as Islamic State Khurasan's (ISK) cross-border attacks. TRAC has been witnessing new IS operations in areas with either zero activity by previous IS cells or has been dormant for quite some time, like Tajikistan. All of the new activity is an indication that Islamic State's external operations branch, better known as the Emni, is gearing up operations in late-2021. Since late September 2021, there have been reported IS cell movement in Sudan, Rwanda, Uganda, Kosovo and Poland. If the Emni is, in fact, behind all the recent activity, this Tajik arsonist cell would make the sixth external operation of which TRAC has become aware. 

Other Developments

TRAC Incident Report:

Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA) Expands into New Areas, Claims Attack in Gomba Administrative Post in the Naulala Locality , Mecula District in Niassa Province, Mozambique


Image:  Map Niassa in Relation to ISCA Stronghold

Over the past few days, multiple Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo/Ansar al-Sunna (Shabaab Cult) ‘ Islamic State Central Africa (Wilayat Wasat Ifriqiyah / ISCA) armed assaults were reported in Niassa province in Mozambique. The latest being an attack on the administrative post in Gomba located in the Naulala Locality of the Mecula District in Niassa, which was claimed 30 November 2021. Additionally, ISCA fighters attacked a transit vehicle killing four policemen on the road between Mecula – Carta in Niassa province. During this time period, a police station also purportedly came under attack from ISCA fighters in the Naulala area. ISCA fighters are expanding West and Niassa province is much further West than the ISCA bases of operation in Cabo Delgado. Besides a lack of military presence in Niassa, the landscape is full of vast areas of terrain with a multitude of hiding spots. Additionally, because of the hunting blocks, Niassa also provides more food and water than Shabaab Cult fighters currently have on the coast. As previously stated, Islamic State Central Africa has traditionally held the areas between Mocimboa da Praia and Pemba along the coast of Cabo Delgado. Expansion into Niassa would also follow the pattern of Islamic State in West Africa (ISWA) who is currently spreading out in Nigerian states in order to thin out security forces’ efforts to dismantle them.

Claim / Anonymous Anarchist:

German Anarchist Sabotage Attack on Excavators, Vehicles and Machines from the Company 'Leag' & Detailed Instruction Manual on How to Repeat in Lausitz, Germany

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Images:  Images complimenting the instructional manual published

On 26 November 2021, German anarchists sabotaged several excavators, vehicles and other machines from the Company 'Leag' in Lausitz, Germany. Anarchists often target the energy sector and in their claim, the anarchists blames the Leag company for leaving their vehicles parked in an unprotected area and should expect to be targeted, giving them easy access. The simple sabotage targeted every vehicle and equipment in the same way by removing the air filters from the motor of the machines. If the machines are used without filters they will sustain damage beyond repair and it is not something that is typically checked before each use. Additionally, their claim gave a detailed explanation of how to repeat this attack. It should be expected that the instructions will trigger similar attacks in the future.

TRAC Incident Report:

Returning Foreign Fighter Targets Interior Ministry Building

with Knife & Axe in Tunis, Tunisia

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Images:  Weapons used in Lone Knife & Axe Attacker Targets Interior Ministry in Tunis, Tunisia

On 26 November 2021, a lone male armed with both a knife and an axe charged the Interior Ministry Building entrance in Tunis. The assailant was able to breach the security perimeter and the gates at the entrance before being shot in the leg by guards.  The fact that the lone knife attacker was known to authorities as a returning foreign fighter from Syria should be of grave concern. Though the exact group that the man joined was not released, the majority of Tunisian foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq joined the Islamic State.

On Our Radar:


TRAC Incident Report: Unidentified Gunmen Shoot and Kill Police Officer in Soroti, Uganda


TRAC Incident Report: Armed Gunmen Engage Security Forces at Jos Prison 262 Inmates Escape in Plateau State, Nigeria


(Far-Right Extremism/ Poster) Eco-Fascist Telegram Channel Advocates Arson Attacks on COVID-19 Vaccine Clinics



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