THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
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No. 45 of 2018
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 8, 2018

Click HERE for the July 27 quote from EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.  

TRADE AND THE LOBSTER TRAP   

"My lobster industry is saying to me, 'How are we going to survive while the Administration works out its long term plan?"
 
Senator Susan Collins 
July 26, 2018 
PRELUDE
There is a large dose of the arbitrary in deciding just when the Great Upheaval in American trade policy began. But we'll choose a date:  March 23, 2018.  That was the day on which the first U.S. national security or 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum first went into effect, and the whirlwind of angry rhetoric and tit-for-tat tariffs has been non-stop since.  We'll make a stab at a more detailed chronology elsewhere.  Our focus today is on some of the effects of the new tariffs the United States has imposed or threatened this year and the responses from China and other trading partners.

In broad terms, the sense that things will get worse before they get better is widespread.  It's more than a feeling; it is baked in the cake. The United States and China are now set to slap new sets of tariffs on one another on August 23.  Yet, below the headlines, there have been developments to suggest that for America and some of its trading partners, a shift from confrontation to negotiation may be in the offing.  GBD's Joanne Thornton develops that theme in the blog she posted today on the GBD website, From Confrontation to Negotiation: Are We There Yet?

We are not sure how many Congressional hearings have already been held on these developments, and doubtless there will be more in the fall.  As for this exceptionally hot August, we will use some of this precious summertime to review what has already happened and what has already been said.

In that regard, we found the July 26 hearing by a subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee exceptionally helpful, and we expect to highlight various elements of it over the next several days, beginning with today's quote from Senator Collins.  
CONTEXT
Nominally, this was a hearing to consider the budget for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.  It was convened by Senator Jerry Moran, Republican from Kansas, who chairs the Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies.  The U. S. Trade Representative, Ambassador Robert Lighthizer, was the sole witness.  In his opening remarks, Senator Moran moved quickly from the $63 million the Administration has requested for USTR for fiscal 2019 to the concerns his constituents have with the renegotiation of NAFTA and the consequences of the tit-for-tat tariffs between the U.S. and China.

Senator Susan Collins, a Republican, is the Dean of the Maine Congressional Delegation.  When it was her turn to question Ambassador Lighthizer, she mentioned several Maine industries caught in the cross-hairs of various trade initiatives.  She began with the plight of Maine's lobster-men and others in that industry, and for this entry, we'll stick to that issue.  

SENATOR COLLINS: 
 
China is, admittedly, a very bad actor when it comes to trade.  But we have to be sure that the actions we take don't end up hurting our own domestic producers.  China, since that meeting, has slapped a retaliatory tariff on Maine's lobsters.  That is our state's largest export.  It generates about $1.5 billion in economic activity in my state.  And exports of Maine lobsters to China had nearly tripled during the past three years.  Compounding the problem facing the industry is the new trade agreement between Canada and the European Union known as CETA.  It has eliminated and phased out tariffs on frozen, live and processed Canadian lobsters that go into the European Union.   

And so the result is that American lobster exports are at a serious disadvantage, because they are now facing tariffs of between 8 and 30 percent to sell into the European Union, which used to be a very profitable market, accounting for approximately 15 to 20 percent of the annual American lobster exports.  

So, when you combine what's happening with Canada with the retaliation by the Chinese, my lobster industry is saying to me, how are we going to survive while the Administration works out its long-term plan? And that's my question to you.   
COMMENT
Ambassador Lighthizer got lots of hard-hitting questions at the Appropriations subcommittee hearing on July 26, but the conversations were civil and respectful on all sides.  Perhaps there was nothing unusual in that, and yet it struck us as noteworthy.

As to his responses to the above question from Senator Collins, he seemed optimistic that last month's breakthrough meeting between President Trump and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has opened the door for progress on the competitive disadvantage that now burdens Maine's lobster exports to the EU.  It is an issue they will be working on, he said.  He was less sanguine with respect to the China issues, and he is almost certainly correct that putting U.S.-China trade on a wholly new footing is likely to prove an extremely difficult exercise with a long time-horizon. 

That said, China can lift its tariffs on U.S. lobster whenever it wishes too.  A quick fix to America's problems arising from the EU-Canada deal is all but unimaginable.
SOURCES & LINKS
A Subcommittee Hearing takes you to the page of  the Senate Appropriations Committee website with details of this July 26 hearing, including a full video recording of the event.

Pivoting to Negotiations takes you to the GBD blog post by Joanne Thornton. "From Confrontation to Negotiation: Are We There Yet?"

The WBUR Report is a link to a July 18 report on the challenge facing Maine's lobster industry.

U.S.-EU Breakthrough is the TTALK Quote for July 27, which focused on the results of President Juncker's meeting with President Trump on July 25. 

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©2018 The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
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R. K. Morris, Editor
Joanne Thornton, Associate Editor