THE TTALK QUOTES 

On Global Trade & Investment
Published By:
The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
Washington, DC   Tel: 202-463-5074
Email: Comments@gbdinc.org
 
No. 12 of 2019
MONDAY, FEBRUARY 11, 2019

Click HERE for last Tuesday's quote from
Chris Pratt of Mid-Continent Steel and Wire  
FROM THE STATE OF THE UNION: ACTION ITEMS ON TRADE    

"I hope you [Members of Congress] can pass the USMCA into law so that we can bring back our manufacturing jobs in even greater numbers, expand American agriculture, protect intellectual property, and ensure that more cars are proudly stamped with our four beautiful words, 'Made in the USA.'"

Donald J. Trump   
February 5, 2019 
CONTEXT
Every State of the Union message is a laundry list of policies and priorities, some more compelling than others.  (We found this year's list pretty compelling, but that's a matter of taste.)  Trade was bound to be included.  From a President who has forced trade policy to the top of the national agenda, the only question was just what he would say about trade.  In a sense, there are trade aspects to many of the things Mr.  Trump talked about last Tuesday, but these four were the ones most clearly within the circle of trade policy issues.

No. I. NAFTA and USCMA.  President Trump had campaigned against NAFTA and last fall he signed the agreement that is meant to replace it, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or USMCA.  In this year's State of the Union address he asked Congress to approve legislation to implement it.  We'll return to what the President had to say about USMCA in a moment, but first let's continue with the list.

No. II. China. "[W]e are working on a new trade deal with China," President Trump said, adding that "it must include real structural change to end unfair trade practices, reduce our chronic trade deficit, and protect American jobs."

No. III. Reciprocal Trade. This was another specific request.  "I am asking you to pass the United States Reciprocal Trade Act, so that if another country places an unfair tariff on an American product, we can charge them the exact same tariff on the exact same product that they sell to us."  And

No. IV. Pricing of Prescription Drugs.  Whatever the policy instruments for addressing this issue turn out to be, President Trump framed it in trade terms.  He said: "It's unacceptable that Americans pay vastly more than people in other countries for the exact same drugs ... . I am asking Congress to pass legislation that finally takes on the problem of global freeloading and delivers fairness and price transparency for American patients, finally."

***

Again, we expect to discuss each of these topics in future entries, but today's featured quote is about NAFTA and the USMCA, and so we shall say just a word or two more about that before closing this one. 

First, the President devoted two paragraphs to the North American trade agreements - that's a lot in a State of the Union message.  And here they are:

Another historic trade blunder was the catastrophe known as NAFTA.  I have met the men and women of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, and many other states whose dreams were shattered by the signing of NAFTA.  For years, politicians promised them they would renegotiate for a better deal, but no one ever tried, until now.

Our new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the USMCA, will replace NAFTA and deliver for American workers like they haven't had delivered to for a long time.  I hope you can pass the USMCA into law so that we can bring back our manufacturing jobs in even greater numbers, expand American agriculture, protect intellectual property, and ensure that more cars are proudly stamped with our four beautiful words: "Made in the USA."  (Applause.)
COMMENT
Whatever one may think of NAFTA - and we see it as a net positive for America - it was undeniably associated with significant disruptions.  Politically it was a wound that would not heal.  USMCA  offers Americans the chance to put the long NAFTA debate behind them.

Will Congress approve implementing legislation for USMCA this year?  Speaker Pelosi held out hope that it might in her press conference last Thursday, February 7, when she said, "I have always thought that this was probably one of the easier trade agreements to come to agreement on.  But then she added, "We're not there yet."

Stronger enforcement of the labor and environment provisions are issues that Speaker Pelosi has said need to be addressed.

The new chairman of the Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee, Rep. Earl Blumenauer of Oregon, has flagged pharmaceutical pricing as an issue, that is, the potential for the agreement to raise drug prices in the U.S., and he has said the agreement would need to be renegotiated before the current, Democratically controlled Congress would approve it.

Then of course there is the issue of the 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum coming in from Canada and Mexico.  Former Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady - now the Committee's Ranking Member - has said he doesn't believe Congress will approve the USMCA until those tariffs are gone.

Is this an exhaustive list?  Hardly, and we will be dealing with other topics in future entries, including issues, irritants, for Canada and Mexico as well as for the United States.  Some of those we should be able to describe in fairly straightforward terms.  But the big, overarching question is going to be hard to get a handle on for some time.  That is, do House Democrats want to see a NAFTA replacement bill passed in the current, 116th Congress?   Or would they prefer to cruise through 2019 and 2020 without any definitive action on North American trade, leaving it all for the next Congress and the next President to decide?

We don't know the answer to that, but the status quo is not going to hold for another two years.  Whoever takes the oath of office on January 20, 2021, will do so against the background of a functioning United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or something much worse.
SOURCES & LINKS
 From the State of the Union Address takes you to the text of this speech as published on the White House website.  This was the source for today's featured quote as well as others in this entry.  
 
Nancy Pelosi on NAFTA's Replacement.  This is a link to the transcript from Speaker Pelosi's press conference on February 7, which included her observations quoted above.  
 
Blumenauer Singles Out Pharmaceuticals is a February 7 article from the Washington Examiner, which highlights Chairman Blumenauer's issues with the USMCA as it currently stands.
 
USMCA and the 232 Tariffs is a link to the page on the GBD website with materials from the January 24 GBD event "A North American Checklist," which focused on the link between the 232 tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the future of the USMCA.


TO GET THE TTALK QUOTES IN YOUR INBOX

Or Other GBD Notices, click below.
©2019 The Global Business Dialogue, Inc.
1717 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Suite 1025
Washington, DC   20006
Tel: (202) 463-5074
R. K. Morris, Editor
Joanne Thornton, Associate Editor