Tierrasanta Social Club
NFL Week 1 Starts on Thursday
Make your first pick  by Thu, Sept 9th at 5:15PM

TSC Football: Serial 5

This is the FIFTH serialized email. This one provides an explanation of How to Read and Understand the Las Vegas point spreads. If you study football then maybe you don't need help from Vegas, but if you're a more casual fan then seeing what Vegas "sharps" think can help you make your picks, and it also improve your win total.
Las Vegas Point Spreads
Every week, absent unforeseen circumstances, and usually on Thursday morning, we will provide you with the current betting lines for the week's NFL games by email. As noted in Serial 2, the Yahoo Pick'Em site also provides similar information on the betting lines.
    
Each NFL week (weeks 1 thru 17) starts with a Thursday Night Football (TNF) game, so providing the odds as of Thu morning gives you the latest info in plenty of time to make your TNF pick. (On Thanksgiving Thursday there's three games scheduled, including a Thu morning game, so for Week 12 we'll provide the Vegas picks on Wed afternoon.) 
  
The source used for these weekly spreads is Vegas Insider.com (click here for the live VI site). The site has several columns and the "VI Consensus" column is what we will report to you each week. On Thursday morning these predictions will be recorded and forwarded by TSC email so that everyone has a similar level of information with which to make their picks.

Occasionally the LV odds change later in the week, but when this happens we will NOT send any updates. If you want to see the updates you can go out and get them yourself.
   
Hint: you should make ALL your picks Thursday just to be sure something is entered. That way you have a pick in place for each game just in case you forget to or can't make an updated pick later. You can always make picks early in the week and then change them later. Making your picks on Thursday also helps ensure you have something entered for all the tie breakers: remember, you cannot make the most points / fewest points tiebreaker after the TNF game is locked.
  
Many players use Vegas's picks to make their own picks, but then they choose one or two upsets based on hunches. You are encouraged to do this too, and we will provide you the Vegas picks each week, usually on Thursday morning.
  
Fact: in order to win a week (and win back you buy-in fee) you almost always need to beat Vegas by a game or two, and you can't do that without taking an underdog (because, by definition, the Vegas picker ALWAYS picks the Vegas favorites.) 
  
Two other interesting facts:
  1. In ten past years of playing a Vegas proxy picker in this pool, Vegas has had the best weekly score FOUR times: in week 13 of the 2015-16 season (but Vegas actually came in 2nd, based on a tiebreaker); in week 11 of the 2016-17 season, in week 20 of the 2016-17 post season, and in week 12 of the 2017-18 season.
  2. In ten years the Vegas proxy player ALWAYS has finished in the top 1/3 of the regular season standings, and usually it finishes in the top 1/4.
The point is, if you pick like Vegas then it's a virtual certainty that after week 18 you will "make the cut" as we transition to post-season play. Here's the history:
  • In 2020-21 Vegas ended up with 157 wins, 6 behind the winner, 20th out of 65 players.
  • In 2019-20 Vegas ended up with 154 wins, 7 behind the winner, 15th out of 73 players.
  • In 2018-19 Vegas ended up with 153 wins, 5 behind the winner, 8th out of 59 players.
  • in 2017-18 Vegas ended up with 163 wins, 5 behind the winner, 4th out of 59 players.
  • in 2016-17 Vegas ended up with 155 wins, in FIRST place out of 60 players!
  • In 2015-16 Vegas ended up with 148 wins, 7 behind the winner, 20th out of 64 players.
  • In 2014-15 Vegas ended up with 157 wins, 4 behind the winner, 11th out of 57 players.
  • In 2013-14 Vegas ended up with 160 wins, in FIRST place out of 89 players!
  • In 2012-13 Vegas ended up with 152 wins, 10 behind the winner, 16th out of 40 players.
  • In 2011-12 Vegas ended up with 156 wins, 3 behind the winner, 5th out of 48 players.

Q: What is "the cut" and why is it important?   

 

A: At the end of the regular season we will draw a "cut line" that is halfway down the standings. The top half will "make the cut" and the bottom half will not. Those who make the cut get to pick in the postseason for significantly more prizes. Those who don't make the cut play still make picks in the postseason, but they play only a single post-season prize. In other words, when we enter the postseason we reward those players who picked well across the regular season with the opportunity to win post-season prizes against half the competition. 

 
The "Proxy for Las Vegas" player

Every year we include a fully paid "Proxy" player (entry fee paid by the undersigned). This player has no discretion in the picks: it picks exactly what Vegas says as of Thursday morning each week per the Vegas email. As noted above, the source used for these picks is the point spreads in the"VI Consensus" column of VegasInsider.com. The Proxy for LV player makes the exact same picks we will send to you each Thursday morning by TSC email.
  
Occasionally the Las Vegas odds change later in the week, but when this happens the Proxy player's picks are NOT updated.
  
Sometimes on Thu morning the Vegas pick is "PK" (which is "Pick'Em") indicating Vegas has no preference or when Vegas thinks the game could end in a tie score. This happens, for example, when there is a player injury and the player's status for the game hasn't been announced.  
 
A no-pick is a guarantee of zero points, so in this pool we MUST make a pick. If it's "PK" on Thu then this pick will be made later in the week when Vegas finally chooses a side. In the very rare instance when Vegas does not pick a winner then the the Proxy player will take the home team by default.
         
The Thursday morning Vegas emails

The source used for these weekly numbers is VegasInsider.com (click here). An image from 2014 is shown below for illustration purposes.


The "Open" column, to the left, is Vegas's opening odds published on Monday.  It represents the first analysis after the prior week's games. Once posted this does not change.
 
The 2nd column in is the "VI Consensus" column. This represents the current consensus betting lines at a moment in time. These values are updated continually, though absent a new player injury they don't usually change very much from mid-week through Sunday. The "VI Consensus" lines serve two purposes:
  1. TSC's Thursday emails will report the "VI Consensus" column data as of Thursday morning.
  2. TSC's "Proxy for LV" player's picks will precisely represent the "VI Consensus" column as represented in the Thursday emails.
The columns to the right of "VI Consensus" are betting lines from various bookmakers in Las Vegas. You can refer to these, or not, as you choose.  
 
Understanding the Spreads



The basic concept of point spreads is pretty simple. The favorite is identified with a negative number (and the underdog has the same number, only positive). The idea is that, when the game is over, if you subtract the spread from the number of points scored by the favorite team, then it should equal the points scored by the underdog team -- such that the result would be a tie. When spreads are applied then each game should result in a tie (if Vegas does its job right).
 
Here's a little more explanation on the Vegas Insider numbers:
  1. Info is provided for each game. It shows the posted kickoff time (in Eastern time) and the television network that will broadcast the game. The first team listed is the visitor and the second team listed is the home team (read as: the first team playing at the second team). If the game is played at a neutral site then this will be noted immediately beneath the game's listing. Vegas Insider also often will include game notes such as key players not playing and anticipated weather conditions.
  2. The negative number represents the estimated margin of victory of the predicted winner. The larger the negative number means the bigger the favorite. The team with the negative number next to it is the team Vegas says is the favorite. In the 2014 example above:
    • Vegas predicted Seattle (home team) would beat Green Bay by 5.5 points
    • Vegas predicted New Orleans (visiting team) would beat Atlanta by 3 points
    • Vegas predicted St Louis (home team) would beat Minnesota by 4 points
  3. The larger positive number alongside the underdog is the over / under. Basically this is Las Vegas predicting the total points scored by both team. In the 2014 example above:
    • Vegas predicted Green Bay and Seattle together would score a total of 45 points
    • Vegas predicted New Orleans and Atlanta together would score a total of 51.5 points
    • Vegas predicted Minnesota and St Louis would score a total of 44 points
  4. The spreads show "-10" next to most picks. This represents the house's "take" (the "vig").
  5. To get a predicted final score to use in the tie breakers you have to compare both the spread and the over/under. The easiest example is Minnesota at St Louis, where St Louis is favored by 4 points and the over/under is 44 points. Basically what this tells you is Las Vegas thinks the final score will be St Louis 24, Minnesota 20, because this is the score that gives St Louis the 4-point victory and total points of 44 scored by both teams.
For most games all you care about is the predicted winner, because that's what we try to do -- pick winners. But for the tie breakers you also need to guess the final scores of two games, and that's where the point spread and over/under become important. In the Thursday emails we will do the math to give you the predicted scores for each game.  Also, the numbers sent Thu morning will be the exact picks made by the player Proxy for LV.         
           
As noted above, occasionally the odds change later in the week. You can see an excellent example in the image above, where Atlanta opened the week as a 1-point favorite (in the Open column), but later in the week New Orleans was established as the 3-point favorite (in the VI Consensus column). This happens occasionally. 
  
Note also that you can find the Caliente line (from book makers in Tijuana) in the daily San Diego Union Tribune (see right). Here the favorites are shown on the left, the "Line" is the point spread reflecting the points the favorite should win by (shown without the minus sign), the O/U (over/under) is the total points both teams should score, and the underdog is shown to the right. The home team is shown in ALL CAPS. It's the same info Vegas Insider shows, but in a slightly different presentation.  
  
The Las Vegas and Caliente predictions are usually pretty close to each other, but not always. In 2011 we did proxy players for both services and we found that Las Vegas was 1 or 2 wins per year better than Caliente. Now we just report the Las Vegas spreads in our Thursday morning emails.
Applying the Spreads

     
When VegasInsider.com shows picks like this (above), it is translated as follows (below) in the Thursday morning Vegas Picks emails:
    
  
Here's how you read the Thursday morning Vegas Picks email:
  1. The favorite for each game is shown in green cells with bold blue letters. The underdogs are shown in white cells with faded grey letters. Hint: If you want to pick Vegas favorites then pick all the teams in green cells.
  2. The actual Vegas "spreads" are shown to the right in red text. The first number "spread" is the number of points the favorite should win by (shown as a minus number). The second number is the total points predicted to be scored by both teams; a.k.a. the "over/under". The spread and the over/under appear on the same line as the favorite.
  3. The blue text in the middle is simply the mathematical interpretation of the Vegas spread and over/under as applied and then rounded off. (You can't pick 0.5 or less of a point, you must pick whole numbers, so these are rounded off to make integers.) What you see in the 2014 example above is:
    • Seattle was favored over Green Bay by 5.5 points, with over/under of 46 points, so the predicted final score was SEA 26 to GB 20, a 6-point victory (rounded off).
    • New Orleans was favored over Atlanta by 3 points, with over/under of 51.5 points, so the predicted final score was NO 27 to ATL 24, a 3-point victory (rounded off).
    • St Louis was favored over Minnesota by 4 points, with over/under of 44 points, so the predicted final score was STL 24 to MIN 20. No rounding off required in this example.
Each Thursday morning we will send you the Vegas odds with exactly the info shown above: favorite, underdog, spread and over/under. Using this info we present to you the exact game score based on the Vegas numbers.This way you know exactly what Vegas says should happen, and exactly what the "Proxy for LV" player is picking that week. It's up to you how you choose to use this info.  
More about the Vegas Lines

It seems like Yahoo's Pick'Em spreads are the Vegas open line, and often it seems Yahoo does NOT update these as the week progresses. That's why when we send you the betting lines we do it on Thursday, several hours before the first game, and we use the data in "VI Consensus". We do this because these are updated minute by minute, and by Thu morning the lines have gone through most of their ups and downs for the week.

Home Team Advantage: All other things being equal, typically the home team has an automatic 3-point advantage in the spread (this can vary based on the home venue and fan base). So when Vegas lists a home team as a 3-point favorite, what that tells you is neither team would be a favorite at a neutral site; that is, Vegas thinks the two teams are equally matched.
  
When no team is favored it's called "pick em". You'll see "PK" on the Open picks (first picks of a week) sometimes, and usually later in the week Vegas resolves this uncertainty and chooses a favorite. The Thursday email will show "PK" if by Thursday morning Vegas still hasn't settled on a favorite. YOU, however, MUST pick a winner (because if you don't make a pick then you're guaranteed a zero score for the game).
  
Ditto for the Las Vegas (Proxy) player: if Vegas comes up with a favorite later in the week then this will be reflected in the Proxy pick even if it isn't determined until after Thursday. If Vegas continues to show "PK" by Sunday then the Vegas player will pick the home team.
 
Attention Rookies: Anyone can make their picks exactly according to the experts in Vegas, because we provide you with that information. IF anyone had done that four years ago, in 2016, then they would have ended up tied with Proxy for LV as the best picker overall for the regular season. It turns out NOBODY did this (except the proxy picker), but everyone had the same information and the same opportunity.

For more on the terminology used in football spreads click here.
Don't Forget: We are a Social Club

Everyone is invited to the TSC events each Monday night. The MNF parties are held every Monday from this coming Monday, Sept 13th, until the last one on Jan 3rd (Week 17). If you live in T-Town and are going to watch MNF anyway then you should stop by. We hope most of you will try to attend when you can, and bring some friends too.

Our MNF parties are when we award prizes to the best pickers from the prior week. It's also when we award payoffs from the prior 10x10 boards (for those who did not stick around long enough to claim their reward the previous week or weeks, or for those not on Venmo). We do this at halftime of the MNF game. If you don't attend any of the MNF events then it's very difficult to give you your prize (unless you paid by Venmo). Contact the undersigned if you have any questions or concerns.
Here's the Sign Ups to Date
 68 players are paid up, signed on to Yahoo, ready to make picks:
  1. Mighty Trojan (yours truly),
    co-Commish
  2. Proxy for Las Vegas (Rosa)
  3. Punkin Penny (Jan F, last season's reg. sea. runner up), co-Commish
  4. SeeVuPlay (Phong V)
  5. 619 Pigskin (John B)
  6. Ari S Totle (TK K and Kim K),
    co-Commishes
  7. Scuba Babe (Gayle S)
  8. Take the Cannoli (Kurt C)
  9. Jedi (Harish P)
  10. Aynnoh (Aynn M, from FL)
  11. Magic (BJ M, from FL)
  12. Sea Dogs (Stephen G)
  13. Sooners SEC bound! (Scott H, OK)
  14. Elway (Myra A)
  15. The Cutting Edge (Myriam P, last season's post-season champ)
  16. Little Beso (Amy N) (Rookie!)
  17. Knaughty Knitter (Jackie R)
  18. QAQueen (Pat B)
  19. 2UP22GO (Mark P)
  20. BombayMartini (Bob C)
  21. Game Time Decision (Rick W)
  22. Rodrick Rulez (Tony P, last season's regular season champion)
  23. San-durama (Sandy W)
  24. Hot for Teacher (Jennifer M) (Rookie!)
  25. Turbo (Gary M)
  26. J2 (Judy M) (Rookie!)
  27. Gaucho Willie (Willie T)
  28. Buc's R Champs (Bill C)
  29. Tunaboy (Jose V)
  30. Rock Picks (Bill D)
  31. Flying Latte (Donovan & Mel J) 
  32. CheckYourSix (Karen M)
  33. OK Boomer (Dave H)
  34. Lightning Cat (Lucy B)
  35. WHO DAT (Bill & Anne C)
 
36. Tiny (Tiny S)
37. Holy Ground (Jake M)
38. Cowboys Up (Dave P, from TX)
39. 49er Loomie (John L)
40. Phins Up (Joe H, from MN)
41. Salty B-ry (Bryan B) (Rookie!)
42. SaxMan (Win H)
43. RoyBoy (Roy C, TSC co-Founder)
44. Texas Tessie (Terri S, from AZ)
45. WineHen (Ellen H)
46. Cellar Dweller (Chris S)
47. Victorious Viacha (Lisa L)
48. Outrider (Don S)
49. Big Red (Courtney C, from MN)
50. Bobs (Bill M)
51. DocBlueGil (John U) (Rookie!)
52. USD 27 (John S) (Rookie!)
53. Tommy O (Tommy O) (Rookie!)
54. Big Papa Pump (Jimmy L) (Rookie!)
55. Fiddler on the Roof (Joshua S)
56. Pool Shark (Virginia S)
57. BigFly (Kent R) (Rookie!)
58. Nola Gal (Yvette L, from TX)
59. FINFAN92 (Drew D, from FL)
60. FSSzabo81 (Steve S, from AZ)
61. All Day Dodini (Anthony D) (Rookie!)
62. Tighty Whitey (Steve W) (Rookie!)
63. TommyBahama (Mark C)
64. Yoda I Am (Pat H)
65. JoeG-Vegas (Joe G, from NV) (Rookie!)
66. BucBoxerCava (Phillip L)
67. The Black Hole (Yvette S)
68. Johnny Boy (John J) (Rookie!)
 

10x10 Squares Update
As of Tuesday 9/7 at 10 PM PDT
  
$2 board: 95 squares sold; 5 are still open
We hope to completely sell out the $2 board for the season.
 
$1 board: 84 squares sold; 16 are still open
We will be selling the open squares on MNF game day. 
  
TSC's Serialized Emails
Here is the schedule and links:
  • Fri, 1 Sept: SERIAL 0 - Notice of Serialized Messages (click here)
  • Sat, 4 Sept: SERIAL 1 - "Making Picks 101" (click here to view)
  • Sun, 5 Sept: SERIAL 2 - Navigating the Yahoo site (click here)
  • Mon, 6 Sep: SERIAL 3 - Misc notes (dropped points & tiebreakers) (click)
  • Tue, 7 Sept: SERIAL 4 - TSC Ground Rules (rules of the pool) (click)
  • TODAY, 8 Sept: SERIAL 5 - Understanding the Las Vegas Odds
  • Thu AM, 9 Sept: "make your picks" announcement and Vegas odds for week 1
  • Thu PM, 9 Sept: TNF = First game of the regular season
  • Fri, 10 Sept: SERIAL 6 - Playing the 10x10 boards
  • Sat, 11 Sept: SERIAL 7 - The Monday Night Football events
  • Sun AM, 12 Sept: First Sunday of the NFL regular season
  • Sun PM, 12 Sept: results for Week 1 thru Sun; announcing MNF #1
  • Mon AM, 13 Sept: SERIAL 8 - List of the TSC Co-Commissioners
  • Mon PM, 13 Sept: First MNF of the season, MNF event at TBD
  • Tue, 14 Sept: Announcing the final results / winners for Week 1
  • Thu, 16 Sept: "make your picks" announcement, Vegas odds for week 2
  • (etc.)
  • approx week 3: SERIAL 9 - TSC's business model and payoffs
  • (etc.)
  • week 18, in January: SERIAL 10 - Transition to the post season
Eric (co-commish) -- Mighty Trojan
619-200-1928