November 4, 2020
2020 Election Returns: What We Know, What We Don't
Please note: the 2020 election results are still coming in. The recaps, projections, and results covered in the following newsletter are up to date at the time of publication. TSG will continue to provide updates to the election results as they come in with a follow-up newsletter once one of the presidential candidates reaches 270 electoral votes.
Vote 2020. Red_ white_ and blue voting pin in 2020 with Your Vote Counts text. 3d render.
The Blue Mirage

While former Vice President Biden appears well-positioned to unseat President Donald Trump, the race remains too close to call. We can expect weeks of recounts, litigation and partisan conflict over the results. Further down Pennsylvania Avenue, however, stunning results are revealing that Republicans significantly overperformed expectations and almost all the polls as they look poised to retain control of the Senate and actually gained seats, though not the majority, in the House.

Whether the Democrats take the White House or not, they are entering a period of intra-party conflict that could jeopardize the party’s agenda and long-term political prospects. The Democratic “establishment” will be challenged by the party’s more aggressive progressive wing. Democrats will need to address their identity: Are they the moderate party of Vice President Biden, who eked out a win while rural America showed a strong preference for the Republicans notwithstanding some distaste for Trump’s style? Or are they a more progressive party pulled in the Sanders-Warren-AOC direction that believes that they can awaken a left progressive majority? Democrats face real questions about their structural disadvantages as they increasingly become an urban/inner suburban party, when control of the Senate hinges on exurban and rural voters in solid and light Red states.

Congressional Republicans are emboldened by their electoral victories, but huge questions remain about what a post-Trump Republican party looks like (or whether Trump’s personality and power continues to dominate the Republican base). Is there a return to a more moderate conservative party? Does retaining control of the Senate and gaining seats in the House show that Trump’s policies were popular while his personality and rhetoric was an electoral drag? Who are the most visible faces of the Republican party as they enter the off year 2022 election cycle? Is it Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY?

One thing that the results show is that many of the idealistic and more bold progressive policies that we assumed a Democratic Washington would pursue, like Medicare for All and bold climate change policies, are off the table. While Democrats will have control on the House for the 117th Congressional Session and a favorable map for 2022 Senate races, last night shows that there are still deep divisions in our country and Democrats need to be very strategic over the next 24 months in order not maintain the House majority in the 2022 midterms.

The House of Representatives
While the Democrats held control of the House last night, they suffered an alarming number of incumbent losses, some surprises and some not. Almost all of the Democratic losses with the exception of Rep. Colin Peterson, D-MN 7, the current Chair of the House Agriculture Committee, were from the ranks of the class of 2018. Some examples include- Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small, D-NM 2, Congressman Joe Cunningham, D-SC 1, and Congresswoman Donna Shalala, D-FL 27. Both parties’ leadership in the 117th Congress will largely remain the same as the leadership was in the 116th Congress. The one potential fight in the top tier of Republican leadership is for Rep. Liz Cheney’s, WY At-Large, position as Chair of the House Republican Conference. Rep. Cheney has earned the ire of both President Trump and the House Freedom Caucus. Expect Leader McCarthy to be newly emboldened in opposing the less than 10 vote Democratic Majority. Strengthened after an overperformance by his members and party, Leader McCarthy and his team will be laser-focused on regaining the majority in 2022, and maintaining unified opposition to spending, while supporting calls for deficit reduction.

Speaker Pelosi is going to have to manage a fractured Democratic caucus that is still grappling with last night’s results and the question what happened? Progressives will argue that turn-out for Democrats was not high enough because there were not enough progressive policies at the forefront of the Biden campaign, while moderates will see the results as a reflection that the country is not yet ready for a bold progressive agenda. These divisions could pose significant challenges to Speaker Pelosi’s efforts to keep the Democratic Caucus on the same page as a half a dozen or so defections on any bill will derail the Democrats ‘desired outcome. 

The only changes in the House Committee Chairmanships will be the in the House Appropriations, Foreign Affairs , and Agriculture Committees. Congresswomen Rosa DeLauro, D-CT 3, Marcy Kaptur, D-OH 9, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-FL 23, are all running for the Chair of the Appropriations Committee. Congressman Gregory Meeks, D-NY 5 appears to have secured the votes to take the gavel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Three members of the House Agriculture Committee are expected to vie for the Chairmanship , Congressman David Scott, D-GA 13, Congressman Jim Costa, D-CA 16, and Congresswoman Marcia Fudge, D-OH 11. Rep. Fudge is also a likely candidate for Agriculture Secretary.

While there will be no changes to Committee and Caucus leadership, three questions are paramount:

  • How powerful are Committee chairs compared to members of the Caucus facing tough re-election in the midterms?
  • What policy issues are taken up first?
  • How progressive is the legislation that the House does send to the Republican-controlled Senate? Is legislation sent to send a message that the House is committed to the Democratic agenda, or is it negotiated with the Senate so that governing, not gridlock is the story?

Progressives will push for movement on their priorities particularly if Vice President Biden prevails, but moderates, Speaker Pelosi, and the Democratic establishment know that without the centrists, the Democrats will lose their majority in 24 months. Expect the next Congress and the Congressional leadership to be intensely focused on the 2022 midterm elections when the House Majority will almost certainly be on the line. Speaker Pelosi will be hard pressed to give enough to the more activist progressive members who represent deep blue districts to keep them satisfied while also protecting the “Majority Makers” who were originally elected from swing districts in 2018. All of this will intensify the 2021 struggle at the state level over redistricting. Who wins and who losses the redistricting battles will be a key if not they key factor in which party controls the House, what legislation will have consensus, and what will move early on.

A COVID-19 relief package is likely to be the first item of business if nothing passes in the Lame Duck, and the House will certainly push to include an economic recovery initiative, state and local funding, and a broad range of healthcare policies and programs. Leader McConnell will trim/slash this package and that fight will almost certainly consume the early days of the next Congress. An infrastructure package will almost certainly follow a COVID-19 package with the House looking to pass a green jobs infrastructure bill and Republicans pushing for a highway bill reauthorization. It will be instructive to see how aggressively Leader McConnell seeks to thwart the inclusion of climate change and climate resiliency provisions in the infrastructure bill.

It has been speculated that House Resolution 1, the bill traditionally used to showcase the majority party’s highest priority, will address dark money in politics and restrictions on special interest PACs, addressing the Citizens United decision that allowed corporate money to enter politics at unlimited amounts. And both early on and throughout the session, we will see movement on healthcare from the House, but what, exactly, is likely to be determined by the outcome of the legal challenge to the Affordable Care Act currently before the Supreme Court. At a minimum, expect legislation firming up coverage for pre-existing conditions, expansion of a public coverage option for citizens in states without Medicaid expansions, lowering drug prices and insurance premiums, and eliminating surprise/out of network billing.


Beyond that, the order in which the policy agenda comes to the floor is less clear. Social justice, police reform, and immigration are areas the caucus has promised to address but become harder to move with moderates spooked by last night’s results. Gun control is another area with strong support, but this issue has many factions on how exactly to address the issue and how far gun control should go. This may be an issue more likely tackled by an executive order from the White House should former Vice President Biden win.

The undertone of these decisions is the power of certain caucuses within the Democratic party, primarily the Congressional Black Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. These caucuses will have the largest membership ever. In the case of the CHC, this is a growing demographic in the sunbelt region, which is reflected by New Mexico, which became the first state to elect a House delegation consisting of all female women of color. And despite a severe divide between progressives and moderates in these caucuses, they will benefit immensely from the fact that leadership from each were highly influential in Vice President Biden’s campaign and are on his transition team. Both will likely play an unprecedentedly large role in the White House’s efforts – provided Vice President Biden prevails - to pass legislation as well as the steering of policy agendas and implementation. This could impact what legislation moves early on. Does the maternal health package known as the “Momnibus” move before immigration reform? It’s quite likely, as the Democrats will work hard to deliver for the base that delivered Democratic control and that will be absolutely critical to maintaining the House in 2022.
 
McConnell in the Driver’s Seat 
Democratic hopes of gaining full control of the federal government were dashed last night, with Senate Republicans losing seats but on track to retain a small one or two vote majority. While the Democrats expected to lose one seat, that of Senator Doug Jones, D-AL, there were 12 competitive races for Democrats that, at the time of this publication, were largely favored for Republicans to hold. Republican incumbents in competitive races who held their seats include:

  • Senator Joni Ernst, R-IA
  • Senator Steve Daines, R-MT
  • Senator Lindsey Graham, R-SC
  • Senator John Cornyn, R-TX
  • Senator Susan Collins, R-ME

One open seat, Kansas, was held by the Republicans and won by Senator-elect Roger Marshall. The states of North Carolina, Alaska, and Georgia look like they will be held by Republicans (though additional information on Georgia follows). All to say that so far, Democrats have only picked up two of the 12 potential seats through former-Governor Hickenlooper’s win over Senator Cory Gardner, R-CO, and Senator-elect Mark Kelly’s victory unseating Senator Martha McSally, R-AZ. The one race that truly remains too close to call at the moment is that of Senator Gary Peters, D-MI.

This is an impressive and important victory for Senate Republicans and will almost certainly leave them with control of 48 or 49 seats when the election day counting is completed. The Georgia Special election (for the seat currently held by Senator Kelly Loeffler, R-GA) will be decided in a January 5th runoff and there is a possibility that the other Georgia Senate seat (currently held by Senator David Perdue, R-GA) will also go to a runoff adding further complications to an already complicated situation. For historical context, the last time an incoming Democratic Administration took office without control of both chambers of Congress was in the late 19th century under President Grover Cleveland. 

His control of activity on the Senate floor, combined with the Senate filibuster and the 60-vote threshold required to pass most legislation will give Leader McConnell extraordinary leverage on the cabinet confirmation process which will be of particular importance if former Vice President Biden wins. Leader McConnell will almost certainly use the same playbook that he used after the 2014 midterm elections when Senate Republicans regained the Majority. In 2015, Leader McConnell delayed the confirmation of Loretta Lynch as Attorney General and in 2016 blocked President Obama’s appointment of Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. For context on how well this worked for Leader McConnell before, at the end of President Obama’s first term, 43 key appointees had been waiting for confirmation for over a year. According to ProPublica, this translated to more vacant appointed positions at the end of President Obama’s first term than at the close of either President Clinton or President Bush’s first term.

Expect Leader McConnell to use his confirmation power to make a Biden Administration – assuming we see one – consider sending to the Senate more moderate cabinet appointments, or at least pick his battles and lengthy confirmation processes.

Leader McConnell will continue his role in holding up legislation that the House passes and sends to his chamber. During the 116th Congress, that meant that over 400 pieces of legislation from the House were sent to the Senate’s graveyard. This effort will be done in large part by Committee chairs, several of whom are term-limited, with the new chairs looking to make a name for themselves ahead of the 2024 presidential race. At this point, this is how we project Senate Committee leadership:

  • Senate Special Committee on Aging, where Senator Susan Collins, R-ME, will be term limited and likely replaced by Senator Tim Scott, R-SC. If Senator Scott takes over the Banking Committee, however, Senator Ernst is next in line to Chair this Committee;
  • Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee, currently chaired by retiring Senator Pat Roberts, R-KS, will likely be replaced by Senator John Boozman, R-AR;
  • Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee, currently chaired by Senator Mike Crapo, R-ID, who is likely to take the gavel of the Senate Finance Committee. This would likely leave Senator Tim Scott, R-SC, to take the reigns as chair;
  • Senate Budget Committee, where retiring Senator Mike Enzi, R-WY is likely to be replaced by Senator Chuck Grassley, R-IA, who is term-limited in his current role as Chair of Senate Finance;
  • Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee, which will lose current chair, Senator Lisa Murkowski, R-AK, to term limits, will likely see Senator Mike Lee, R-UT, as the next chair;
  • Senate Energy and Public Works Committee, where Senator Barrasso is not term-limited but could move to Energy and Natural Resources. Although unlikely, this would open the door for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-WV.
  • Senate Finance Committee, where Sen. Grassley is term-limited and likely to move to the Budget Committee. Sen. Mike Crapo, R-ID, will likely take over as Chair.
  • Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where the current chair, Sen. Jim Risch, R-ID, is not term-limited but could decide to take the chairmanship of the Senate Intelligence Committee. In that event, either Sen. Ron Johnson, R-WI or Sen. Mitt Romney, R-UT are possible chairs.
  • Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, where Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC will be top in seniority and the likeliest chair, with the two current most senior Members of the Committee, Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-TN and Sen. Mike Enzi, R-WY both retiring. Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY is next in seniority but unlikely to factor in as potential Chair. Sen. Susan Collins, R-ME could be a possibility if Sen. Burr declines the Chairmanship for some reason.
  • Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, where Sen. Ron Johnson. R-WI is term-limited. Sen. Rob Portman, R-OH is the likeliest successor.
  • Senate Indian Affairs Committee, where although Sen. John Hoeven, R-ND is not term-limited, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-AL, could bump him as Chair since she is term-limited out as Energy and Public Works Committee chair.
  • Senate Intelligence Committee, where Sen. Richard Burr, R-NC stepped down as chair earlier this year under an FBI investigation and is term-limited anyway. Sen. Marco Rubio, R-FL, may choose to chair the Intelligence Committee, giving up his chairmanship of the Small Business Committee. Sen. Jim Risch, R-ID could also choose to give up his chairmanship of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
  • Senate Rules Committee, where Sen. Roy Blunt, R-MO is term-limited. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-TX, could be the new Chair.
  • Senate Judiciary Committee, where Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-SC is not term-limited, but could still lose his chairmanship if Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-IA, who is himself term-limited from the Senate Finance Committee, decides to take the Judiciary Committee rather than the Banking Committee.
  • Senate Small Business Committee, where Sen. Marco Rubio, R-FL, could try to give up his chairmanship to take the Intelligence Committee. In that event, Sen. Rand Paul, R-KY is Rubio's likeliest successor.

The Republican caucus will be divided in the post-Trump era. The more conservative wing of the party, with Senators such as Senator Marsha Blackburn, R-TN, looking to continue to reflect a Trumpian party, others, such as Senator Mitt Romney, R-UT, will look to rebrand as a modern version of Reagan conservatism, and a third group, such as Senator Rob Portman, R-OH, who are inherently legislators, will look to strike balance and compromise to enact laws. Layer this with a number of Republican Senators, including Tom Cotton, R-AR, Rick Scott, R-FL, Marco Rubio, R-FL, Ben Sasse, R-NE, and Josh Hawley, R-MO, eyeing presidential runs, both party and self-interest will be front and center. 

How does this parlay into legislation, and what will and won’t move next session? First and foremost, in addition to slow rolling confirmations, the Senate to have a laser focus on reining in spending and reducing the deficit and Leader McConnell to take the posture that he is negotiating from a position of power. His approach to the most recent COVID-19 relief package is instructive. He will do something, not nothing, but will demand to do it on his terms, governed by a newfound passion to control deficit spending. Expect Leader McConnell to turn a Democratic green jobs infrastructure bill into a highway reauthorization bill and for Senate Republicans will also drive a hard bargain as it relates to the budget, forcing constraint and moderation and citing the need to address the federal deficit.
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Across the Country
Mockup of Vote by Mail Ballot envelopes and application letter to vote by mail for election.
Republicans Gain a Gubernatorial Seat as Democrats Fail to Make Expected Gains in Legislatures

Unlike the federal elections, gubernatorial elections across the country went exactly as expected with incumbent parties largely holding their seats and the only flip taking place in Montana where Governor-elect Greg Gianforte, a Republican, will replace outgoing Democratic Governor Steve Bullock, who lost his race for the US Senate. That win gives Republicans a “trifecta”, control of the Governor’s office and both chambers of the state legislature. Republicans also appear poised to gain a trifecta in Alaska.

Of course, the election doesn’t mean the end of potential changes to Governor’s mansions; the consideration of multiple Governors for cabinet posts in either a Biden or Trump Administration could have a much larger impact on Governor’s mansions around the country than the 2020 election itself. In a potential Biden Administration those include:

  • Governor Jay Inslee, D-WA, for Energy Secretary or head of the Environmental Protection Agency;
  • Governor Gina Raimondo, D-RI, for Treasury Secretary
  • Governor Tony Evers, D-WI, for Education Secretary
  • Governors Steve Bullock and Andrew Cuomo, D-NY, for Attorney General
  • Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, D-NM, for Health and Human Services Secretary
  • Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe, D-VA, for Commerce Secretary.

Governors will also hope to have an impact on national policy. When President Trump came to office four years ago, there was significant discussion of a large infrastructure bill as an initiative on which Republicans and Democrats could agree. At the time, and throughout those discussions and bill drafting, Governors sought to influence that process, and the Trump Administration sought the support of Governors. Four years later, there is again talk of an infrastructure package – regardless of who wins the presidency – and Governors again will look to the federal government to build bipartisan support for a potential package. 

Meanwhile, the outcome of numerous races that will decide control of state houses across the country remain too close to call. Going into election day, Democrats had hoped to flip some of the 59 Republican-controlled state legislative chambers both in order to impact policy, such as Republican efforts to block Medicaid expansion, and because some state legislatures will have a crucial impact on the next round of congressional redistricting. It appears that democrats will fall short. In Iowa, where Democrats were hoping to flip the House and remove a Republican trifecta, they were not only unable to flip the chamber, but Republicans gained seats in both legislative chambers. Democrats also failed to flip the Michigan House. Perhaps no state is more disappointing for Democrats than Texas, where hopes of flipping the House fell short. Texas was a target because it is rich in Congressional seats, are potentially gaining two new seats following the census, and a state where the legislature draws Congressional district maps.

Prior to the 2010 elections, Republicans made significant investment in state legislative races, realizing that state legislatures in many states draw the congressional district maps and thus have an impact on the make-up of congressional delegations. According to FiveThirtyEight Politics, following the 2010 census, the last time the United States reapportioned congressional districts, 55% of federal House districts were drawn by Republicans, 10% by Democrats and the remainder either by an independent commission or split control required the parties to work together. 

Since then, Democrats have increased their investment, culminating in last night’s election. Heading into the election, 27% of House districts were likely to be drawn by Republicans, 11% by Democrats, roughly 30% by an independent commission and the approximately 30% remaining were up for grabs depending on the election results. While it appears that Republicans did well in state legislative races, how these remaining districts will be drawn will crystalize in the coming days and have national impacts for the next decade.

While we still wait on results for state legislatures, there are some note-worthy ballot initiatives that were also on the ballot last night. These include:

  • Four states, Montana, New Jersey, Arizona and South Dakota passed ballot initiatives legalizing recreational marijuana – in the case of South Dakota medical marijuana was also legalized. When those go into effect one in three Americans will live in a state where recreational marijuana is legal despite continued federal law prohibiting it. Voters in Mississippi also passed medical marijuana only. This will continue to place pressure on Congress to act to reverse that law, where its biggest Senate champion, Corey Gardner of Colorado, lost his election.
  • Ranked choice voting failed in liberal Massachusetts and appears to have failed in more conservative Alaska. While the Massachusetts ballot initiative only applied to ranked voting, Alaska would have also changed the primary process to a “jungle primary” where the top two vote getters, regardless of party would have advanced to the general election.
  • California voters voted to make ride sharing drivers independent contractors rather than employees. That initiative would supersede a new California law that would have granted drivers full employment. 

The primary policy focus in the states will be the same as the federal government: addressing the COVID-19 pandemic and stimulating economic recovery. For Governors in particular, that will entail working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other federal partners to develop the disbursement (priority populations & logistics) of a vaccine when it becomes available. Secondarily, Governors and legislatures will continue to address budget pressures that are a result of the pandemic balancing the need to cut costs and raise revenue. Among areas of state budgets that face significant budget pressures are Medicaid and unemployment benefits. This is of growing concern given the Republican Senate has been reluctant to include significant state and local funding in a COVID-19 relief package and is unlikely to change its view now, leaving Governors and state legislatures to deal with the fallout in their budgets.

While state budget impacts from COVID-19 vary significantly from state to state, the list of states facing drastic deficits is likely to grow as the current COVID-19 surge continues and could impact state budgets into 2022 at a minimum. For example, New York, which is one of the most impacted states, is likely to need to cut up to 20% of their FY’21 budget if no federal support is given.

Yes, “All politics is local” but it doesn’t stop at a state’s border. From a federal COVID-19 relief package to a potential infrastructure package, state capitals will look to influence Washington, and in some cases, Washington will look to Governors for support of their policy initiatives. Yesterday’s still unfolding state races will have impact for years to come.
On December 16th, please join the TSG team together with the New England Council as we welcome Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro for a virtual event to discuss an outlook of the 117th Congress. More details to follow.