Greetings!

More than four years ago, I published “What if We Are on the Brink of World War III, Why Isn’t Anyone Doing Anything About It?” I warned that Putin would invade Ukraine after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics. On an investors room on Clubhouse, a formerly invite-only app where I would be on investing panels with Jason Calacanis – the traders dismissed my view as most Western pundits were calling Putin’s build-up a bluff. Unfortunately, most of the market lacks international experience and I was proven correct. Now, the Russia-Ukraine conflict keeps threatening to go from a proxy war into a full-scale World War III. Fortunately for those who listened to me, we were able to evacuate my Russian relative from St. Petersburg and I positioned my clients' portfolios ahead of the invasion and US sanctions. The Ukraine/Russia conflict remains a tempest that could erupt into a full-scale World War III. I was just in Munich for the Security Conference and Western globalist leaders Germany’s Merz, France’s Macron, and UK’s Starmer who are battling poor domestic ratings have decided their best way to stay in power is to align against Russia and send more arms to Ukraine. I have previously highlighted the high risk of "Strategic Accidents" and sabotage to the UK and Europe.

Across the globe, we are on the precipice of a treacherous moment as Trump sends an armada toward Iran, urged on by Netanyahu and emboldened after a successful military operation to capture Venezuela’s Maduro. Fear exists that the U.S. is once again underestimating the enemies it has made over the past 50 years. A turning point in world power is impending. Russia has aligned with China and other BRICS countries, forming a combined force that could challenge even the powerful U.S. military.

2025 Surgical Strike in Iran Was Mission Perfect, as DARPA Designed It

When I worked as a defense analyst for DARPA, I dealt directly with the JFACC — Joint Forces Air Component Command — to understand how it conducted military campaign planning and worked with PhDs in Artificial Intelligence on how we could use AI and other technologies to reimagine war planning for the 21st century. We designed new software that would help the US President define their top-level objective and have this mandate filter down into an exact target that the air force pilot would bomb.  

From this strategic definition perspective, Trump’s Operation Midnight Hammer seemed perfectly designed and executed. President Trump defined a clear achievable goal to degrade Iranian nuclear capabilities and the air force seemed to perfectly execute precision bombs to hit the identified targets and then to escape before any retaliation.   

Iran Conflict Could Trigger World War 3 in Full Effect

However, Trump’s military campaign in 2026 lacks many of the elements that helped the 2025 operation. The current build-up of the US navy and military in the Persian Gulf is likely to be less successful than the 2025 operation and perhaps even a disaster that could spark World War III.

Perhaps chastened by not defending their ally Maduro, Putin and Xi have ordered their navies to the Strait of Hormuz to publicly conduct joint military exercises with Iran, including “Maritime Security Belt 2026.” Moreover, Chairman of the State Maritime Council Nikolai Patrushev referenced a broader BRICS naval exercise “Will for Peace 2026,” conducted in January 2026.

Vice President JD Vance has warned about forever wars and the Western forces that drove the US into disastrous quagmires in Afghanistan and Iraq. This potential exists of forever wars and even World War III permeates in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.

I have constructed the following Framework called the "5-S Security and Surgical Strike Stratagem Stress Test for Success (or Failure)":

In 2008, I worked for the leading BRICS-focused investment bank Renaissance Capital in London, advising JP Morgan, BlackRock, and other top Western investors on equity investments across BRICS countries including South Africa, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Sub-Saharan Africa. After Putin invaded Georgia in 2008, he encountered huge resistance from China and the world - but the dynamics have changed and alliances have shifted to the Global South. After the West imposed sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, BRICS countries increasingly met with plans to join forces to counter Western dominance. 

Alarms should ring that the BRICS have now expanded their mission from economics to joint organized military exercises to counter the West.

I urge President Trump and his team to make a deal with Iran and to de-escalate.

Joelson Family Historical Experience of World War I and World War II

My Austrian great-grandfather was compelled to join the military when World War I was triggered on June 28, 1914, in Sarajevo, Bosnia, after Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated. My Russian-Jewish grandfather understood global dangers when he escaped the Communists in 1917. Michel Joelson immigrated to Paris, France, where he fell in love with my Austrian grandmother, Helene, and my father, Mark Rene Joelson, was born in 1934. My father and his family fled Paris during the Nazi occupation of France. I come from this lineage, which perhaps explains my sensitivity to global dangers and my ability to anticipate world events.

America and Europe should consider the growing influence and anger of the BRICS nations before escalating military conflicts.

I urge President Trump and his team to make a deal with Iran and to de-escalate.

As of February 26, 2026, tensions are at a critical peak and could spark World War III if actions escalate the situation. The U.S. military presence in the region goes beyond what would be necessary to merely exert pressure on Iran during nuclear negotiations and is structured to sustain combat operations for several weeks. Nuclear talks in Geneva have collapsed without an agreement, and former President Trump has set Iran a brief deadline to comply. Multiple sources indicate that military action could be imminent, potentially within days or weeks. Meanwhile, Iran is strengthening its defenses, conducting large-scale military exercises, and preparing for a possible confrontation — though it continues to signal a willingness to engage in diplomacy.

I do not want to be the Cassandra of World War III.

I do not want the world thrust into World War III. It is time to heed these warnings. It is time to listen to other media and people from other viewpoints and parts of the world.

As a former financial and wealth advisor, I am still concentrated in gold and expect it to continue to perform well as volatility and tensions escalate and China and other central banks sell US dollars and buy gold.

Happy to hear your thoughts and feedback! Please forward to colleagues who may be interested and I would be happy to add them to my email list. Please contact me with comments at maya@metapointadvisors.com or mmjoelson@gmail.com.

Maya Marisa Joelson

Wall Street Queen of Spades