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Jobs report to set tone for trading.

The jobs report at 8:30 a.m. New York time will set the tone for trading today. A stronger-than-expected reading would add to concerns that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates much further given the risk of resurgent inflation. 

The pound is slipping further against the dollar, and UK bond yields are rising anew as investors show their skepticism about Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget plans. 

Wall Street executives are locking in plans to award traders and dealmakers their biggest bonus increases since the pandemic, with 10% hikes — or more — coming for many desks.

Asian stocks fall in a sign of caution ahead of US jobs data. European equity futures are largely steady while US peers edge lower. Chinese yields rose as the PBOC said it will temporarily halt its buying of government bonds. The offshore yuan gained.

Treasuries stabilized after a rout that drove 30-year yields to the highest since 2023.

Lucille Ball and Vivian Vance struggle to keep up with a chocolate conveyor belt in a candy factory in a 1952 episode of "I Love Lucy." It is considered one of the series' most iconic moments.

The ‘I Love Lucy’ effect, and why Gensler’s SEC checkout matters

Gary Gensler compares running the SEC to the “I Love Lucy” episode where Ethel and Lucy struggle to wrap chocolates whizzing by them on a production line. He could have wrapped a few more of the chocolates before him. Now, the SEC is expected to bring back lighter regulation with fewer restrictions on companies that seek investors’ money under Paul Atkins, who has called Gensler’s rulemaking plans “very much overreaching.” (Bloomberg Law | Jan 9)

Bond market ‘police’ are back as investors patrol spending plans

Debt market flare-ups show growing pushback against governments’ loose fiscal policies. (Financial Times - free link | Jan 9)

Fannie, Freddie soar on speculation of release from US oversight

Anticipating a release from US oversight, government-backed home loan giant Fannie Mae shares have soared 227%. The rise is in large part due to one man: Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, who has called this moment an “extraordinarily compelling” opportunity to scoop up shares of Fannie Mae — formally the Federal National Mortgage Association — and rival Freddie Mac on the cheap before the US government unwinds its massive stakes in the companies, acquired as part of a roughly $190 billion bailout during the financial crisis. (Bloomberg Markets + Wealth | Jan 8)

DTCC execs on UST clearing, T+1, digital assets, and risk in 2025

In emailed commentary, DTCC’s senior executives highlight trends expected to unfold in 2025. Frank La Salla, president, CEO, and director of DTCC: “While the macroeconomic and geopolitical environment will remain uncertain in 2025, I’m optimistic about our industry’s future and the opportunity for DTCC to lead on critical initiatives that mitigate risk, enhance resilience, and strengthen market structure. “In that sense, this year will essentially be a continuation of 2024 in that we must continue to execute flawlessly on large-scale industry implementations. On the heels of the smooth T+1 conversion, we will galvanize the industry and provide strong leadership on transitioning to the SEC’s US Treasury Clearing rule. (Finadium | Jan 8)

From M&A to AI, how CFOs are mapping out the year ahead

Corporate chiefs spent much of the year concerned about inflation and the US election and generally focused on how to wring more operational efficiencies out of their organizations. While 2025 brings more clarity ahead on many fronts, one constant remains: managing change. Inflation will still be a focus in the year ahead. (The Wall Street Journal | Jan 3)

A researcher carefully removes a bat from a net. Photo: Andre Malerba | Bloomberg

Russian trolls use vampire expert to spread disinformation

Advances in AI have made deepfakes increasingly common. However, the technology’s widespread availability means it can also target lower-profile targets who fly under the radar of fact-checkers. The latest iteration of Operation Overload, a long running pro-Kremlin disinformation campaign designed to flood journalists and fact-checkers with bogus materials to overwhelm their resources. The campaign has also been linked with Doppelganger, another Russian effort that purports to be from mainstream media, according to the nonprofit EU DisinfoLab. 

— Bloomberg Cybersecurity

Convicted tax fraudster must divulge keys to Bitcoin wallets

A Texas man must provide US officials with the information and details about his devices so they can recover $1 million in restitution owed in a tax fraud case, a federal judge ordered. The man underreported gains from selling Bitcoin over several years. His remaining bitcoin is worth about $124 million.

— Bloomberg Technology

Cybersecurity is the king of business worries

Trade wars and superpower spats have nothing on hacking when business leaders can't sleep. Cybersecurity is the business risk to rule them all. Cybersecurity ranks first among geopolitical risks, said 60% of 517 risk decision-makers in a Harris Poll commissioned by insurer Chubb. Take a look at how much the worry outranked all other geopolitical concerns: 

• Escalating tensions between major powers — 42%
• Resource scarcity and climate change — 39%
• Trade wars and protectionism — 38%
• Political instability — 32%
• Red Sea shipping problems — 27%
• War in Ukraine — 20%
• Israeli-Palestinian conflict — 16%

— The Wall Street Journal

When you walk into Coqodaq, New York’s buzzy fried-chicken-and-Champagne emporium, the first thing you see is not its gleaming arched ceiling, its golden nightclub glow or a glamorous host. It’s a row of sinks. Photo: Jason Varney | Bloomberg

The most important room in a restaurant these days? The bathroom.

Over-the-top bathrooms are proliferating worldwide as restaurants look for ways to turn anyone with a social media account into an unpaid marketer: There are more than 9 million #bathroomselfie hashtags on TikTok and almost as many instructional videos on how to take the best ones.

— Bloomberg Pursuits

Inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares

Inflationary pressures are beginning to wane, but not all central banks have taken action yet. See how this affects you

— Financial Times | free link

Nazi ties to Credit Suisse ran deeper than was known, hidden files reveal

A cache of client files stamped “American blacklist,” a designation for those financing or trading with Nazis or Axis partners, was recently found by independent investigators probing Credit Suisse, one of Switzerland’s biggest banks and now part of UBS. The investigators, who studied dusty ledgers and pored over microfilm that hadn’t been part of earlier reviews into the dark chapter, found something else, too: signs of a coverup.

— The Wall Street Journal