Accredited Investment Fiduciary Analyst  
Illinois State Registered Investment Adviser
Life & Long Term Care Solutions 
 
Phone: 847-686-4800
Email: info@cenaclecapital.com
Saturday, March 21, 2020; 11:25 am CST
 
Dear Friends, Family and Clients,

"Don't look (at your 401K) Marion! Keep your eyes shut!


Despite Friday's huge 1,400 point swing in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from UP + 500 points to closing DOWN
- 913 points;
we witnessed a small 0.95% uptick in the total number of stocks showing positiveness.

This means if we get a minuscule1.05% additional increase in positive trends of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, the bear market of 2020 may go down as the greatest buying opportunity of our retirement career.

Like a beach ball pushed under water, the deeper it goes the more likely it will explode to the upside.Until further notice, we're just about there! 

As I said in previous a 2019 post; we had to "lance the boil" of an over-valued market before the election in order to continue the bull market.

I firmly believe with every fiber of my body this is what we're witnessing. Every day we get closer to November 5th, the odds of the market being substantially higher becomes more of a reality.

We'll look back in just a few months realize;
  • the virus wasn't that bad
  • it fell within historical, statistical norms
  • California, Illinois & New York over-reacted
  • the market way over-reacted
  • the "cure" of Stay at Home and business lock down was worse than the illness
  • the media caused a frenzy of fear
  • this decline acts more like a short term-hedge fund liquidity issue
The Adversity IS the Opportunity

From December to February the 2018-2019 flu season according to CDC, they estimated that 16.5 million people went to a health care provider last year for the flu and more than 34,000 people died. That was 5% of the American population. The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness increased slightly to 1.7%, which is below the national baseline of 2.2%.(1)

The flu has results generally in 9.3 million to 49 million illnesses each year in the United States since 2010. That means between 5% and up to 20% of the United States population gets the flu.(1) 
 
Why all this craziness over the Coronavirus? I'm just not sure!
 
This is the 7th flu season since the low of 2011. We have approximately 156,000 infections and 5,800 deaths, but not everyone seeks medical attention. I know people who feel they had corona-like symptoms last November.
   
The press which hates Trump is already blaming him for influencing the election from Vanity Fair to the Washington Post. You can see that those eager to blame Trump are clearly political critics and others just think that if the world crashes and burns, they will be rolling in wealth. Certainly we see insider selling from politicians back in January 2020.   
 
It is estimated that a "typical" flu results in 31.4 million outpatient visits and more than 200,000 hospitalizations each year. The 2017-2018 flu season was one of the longest in recent years, and estimates indicate that more than 900,000 people were hospitalized and more than 80,000 people died from flu. 
 
The 2017-2018 flu season saw children dying whereas; the 2018-2019 flu season took the greatest toll on adults age 65 years and older. About 58 percent of the estimated hospitalizations occurred in that age group.

Currently in the US, at the time of this writing, we have 19,931 confirmed corona flu cases with 275 deaths, which is 27% less than the number of gun shooting victims in Chicago during the month of March. (2)

The "financial crisis" we are facing is made worse by hedge funds liquidating their positions and closing their doors. We started to see this happening last summer.
 
#Truth

Truth #1:
The only thing you need to know is that the market advance is permanent; and the declines are temporary
.  
 
Truth #2:
The world does not end; it only appears to be ending from time to time.  
 
Truth #3:
All successful investing is based on historical probabilities, not remote catastrophic possibilities.  
 
The cycle always reasserts itself.

Always.

If any of your friends or family members feel abandoned by their current financial advisor during this time of stress and uncertainty please have them call me at 847-686-4800.

Please share this newsletter with them.




Respectfully submitted,

Bill

____________________________________________________________________________________
charts courtesy of Dorsey Wright & Associates.
(1) available upon request
(2) https://www.chicagotribune.com/data/ct-shooting-victims-map-charts-htmlstory.html



Bill Ulivieri -AIFA®
info@cenaclecapital.com
www.cenaclecapital.com
Phone: 847-686-4800

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