March, 2021







Hi all,

Things are picking up! I have a charmer that just hit the market in the Village of Rhinebeck. Pure mayhem is expected this weekend with my schedule cleared accordingly. If you or someone you know are interested in the Village of Rhinebeck, I included a quickie two minute video of the home further down.

I have been and continue to be on strike against the tire marks on buyers faces as they navigate through multiple offer waters. I advised my latest client as all others in 2020 to wait on considering any offers (no matter how big or how tempting) for a certain amount of days to allow buyers opportunity to see the home without heart palps to get there.

This strategy has repeatedly benefited my clients by delivering buyers who have had time to thoughtfully consider their home purchase and avoid adding to the "back on market" emails routinely received; many of which I'm willing to bet are buyers getting cold feet a few days later. I did not send one "back on market" email in 2020 and would prefer to keep it that way. My client has agreed to not consider offers until Sunday at the earliest. If you or someone you know has interest, give a call and I'll set a showing. More info further down.
Dutchess County

Dutchess County was down in inventory by 36% as of the January, 2021 NYSAR/DCAR report (see full report here) There appeared a few discrepancies as far as inventory levels are concerned with year to date numbers versus 2020 in the Mid Hudson MLS. I was not able to reach Mid-Hudson prior to this newsletter going out to clarify a few questions on that, but I am comfortable stating year to date is not far off from the 36% down in inventory cited in the January, 2021 report. It's in the neighborhood. We are definitively tight in inventory.

While inventory remains down, sales continue to be up. Per Mid-Hudson MLS, single family detached listings were up 34% between January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus same period 2020. Closed sales are up 41% in Single Family Attached (condos) January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus same period 2020. Using January 1 - March 15 is an interesting pull as this period of 2020 provides the moment in time snap shot on real estate in the period just prior to the shutdown with those same months in 2021 revealing the depths of Covid subsequent impact.

Interest continues in Dutchess County. As noted in the February, 2021 issue of The Brick, we are poised for a strong seller's market for Spring Market 2021. I am sensing buyers are not as emotionally charged as 2020. I have been finding buyers are that much more receptive to staying in tune with comparatives and keeping focus on a deal that involves a reasonable fair market value sale. This is a sign of sanity inching its way to return.

That does not mean we will not see multiple offers in 2021. With the demand already on my schedule within a few hours of the Village of Rhinebeck house going into the multiple listing service, social media, etc... I'm expecting to see multiple offers for this listing. I feel confident there will be other colleagues that have multiple offers also. What it does mean is it's not the wild west of June-September, in particular, that we experienced in 2020. We now have comparatives to enable thoughtful pricing based on today's fair market value, which has increased. The median sale price is up 30.9% in Dutchess County per January, 2021 DCAR/NYSAR report. I forecast increased price reductions and expirations in 2021 for those who do not put thoughtful consideration into pricing and marketing out of the gate. Sellers that are motivated to sell should be fully focused on leveraging Spring Market 2021 rather than losing precious market time with gum throwing (read: picking a number, throwing it on the wall and seeing if it sticks). I counsel my client types very differently. For my buyer clients, it's all about patience, especially in this type of market. My goal and counsel continues as it always has been with my seller clients: "In and out of the market," which means solid pricing and experienced marketing from Day 1.
In the Press

Times Union (www.timesunion.com), published by Hearst Publications, has expanded their vertical to include the Hudson Valley and Catskill regions. Areas of topic will focus on news and features about the people, places and industries shaping life here. Real estate is one of their targeted topics for ongoing inclusion.

They just released an article with varied quotes from me on the market based on an interview we had. I think they did a very good job. I'm going to follow their efforts as they push forward with more coverage on the Hudson Valley real estate market. Click here for the article: "Record breaking Hudson Valley real estate market pace continues"
56 Livingston Street
Rhinebeck, New York

The house video tour below came out quite well, thanks to my talented videographer. It's a little over two minutes. Would love your feedback! Let me know if you would like the full listing. This home just came on the market.


Details
Listing price: $594,900
Three bedrooms PLUS 1/2 story bonus room private from main house flow with full bathroom
Two full and one half bathroom
.24 acre in historic district, Village of Rhinebeck
1747 square feet
Rhinebeck School District
Located on one of the most coveted streets in the Village of Rhinebeck



Rhinebeck and Red Hook

Addressing Rhinebeck and Red Hook has been jingling around in my mind for a while. What launched this thought process was a visit to my favorite smoothie shop in Red Hook one Saturday afternoon for a nutritious recharge pitstop before the shutdown last March. I stared at the "closed" sign in disbelief. I live in Rhinebeck where Saturday's are anything but closed. When I stopped back in on a weekday and asked about this "closed situation", the then owner's response: "Kids have games on Saturdays, everyone is too busy to stop in." In that moment I questioned how two towns each with their own village no more than five miles from each other's center could be so different. At the time, I often viewed Red Hook as Rhinebeck's "laid back cousin." While I don't see Rhinebeck giving up it's "upstate bustle" crown anytime soon, I have to say the gap between the two does seem to have lessened from a residence perspective as I have found more buyers considering both towns more often over the past year than one versus the other. That smoothie shop now has a new owner (Annie, she's awesome) with a new name (Bliss). They are now open on Saturday's and from what I can tell stay quite busy.

Rhinebeck and Red Hook school districts both rate highly with Rhinebeck in fact hitting top of the high school list in Hudson Valley Magazine's March, 2021 issue. School sizes are much different between the districts with Red Hook nearly double Rhinebeck. I got curious when I was speaking with the superintendents' offices in each school for latest student population numbers and asked about January, 2020 versus January, 2021 with full expectation they would have increased over the past year considering the influx into both towns. No! In fact, the opposite! In January, 2020 Red Hook actually had 85 more students (with a total student population of 1826) than January 2021. Rhinebeck also had more students enrolled in January, 2020, but only by 2 (947 total in January, 2020.)

Rhinebeck is generally more contained than Red Hook with taxes, but at last check it wasn't a huge gap. Red Hook is the only town in Dutchess County to have a "conservation" transfer tax to buyers at closing of 2%.

Rhinebeck and Red Hook coming into Spring Market, 2021

Town of Rhinebeck

While overall sales in the Town of Rhinebeck are already up 450% January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus same period 2020 (which included the time period right up to the March, 2020 shutdown), certain price points are indicating unfavorable absorption rates at this time per the market momentum reports I produce with source Mid-Hudson MLS. 

Early data just prior to Spring Market can be a bit misleading as to how it will pan by year end. For example, the $350,000-$400,000 price range currently indicates a highly unfavorable 15 month absorption rate (how long a house will take to absorb back into the market). However, I expect this will likely be swift to resolve with sales as Spring Market heats up since this price point was a strong producer in 2020 with an increase of 125% in sales in 2020 over 2019 and 2.7 month year end absorption rate, which is highly favorable for a sellers market. The $700,000-$750,000 price point is also currently showing an unfavorable absorption rate of 12 months which I also expect to see resolve as Spring Market presses forward as this was another strong price point for 2020 with a 400% increase in sales 2020 versus 2019 and 2.4 month year end absorption rate. 

While the $1,000,000+ price point realized 175% increase in sales January 1, 2020-December 31, 2020 versus same period 2019, the year end market momentum report also indicated 13.1 absorption rates. Important to note, higher end homes do tend to carry higher absorption rates due to a generally more limited pool of buyers in those price points. 

That being said, a total of 11 homes sold in the $1,000,000+ price point 1/1/20-12/31/20. As of March 15, 2021, 7 homes sold between 1/1/2021-3/15/2021 and 4 went into contract during the same period. The current number of sold and contract listings are equal to the total amount sold in this price point in 2020 s the Town of Rhinebeck is poised to outdo itself in 2021 high end sales versus 2020 assuming more sales at the least during Spring Market. However, there are already 9 active listings on the market in the $1,000,000+ price point and Spring Market hasn't even kicked in yet. Current absorption rate in the $1,000,000+ price point is 15.4 months, already higher than 2020. The absorption rate will continue to climb as more listings come on the market in this price point if current active listings do not move into contract and sold status prior.

Village of Rhinebeck

The Village of Rhinebeck is already bustling along with an increase of 800% in sales January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 versus 2020 with 9 listings already sold versus 1 in 2020 during the same three month period. 

The Village of Rhinebeck has already surpassed it's lowest sale in the entire year of 2020 during the first few months of 2021. The lowest sale in the Village of Rhinebeck in 2020 was $195,750. The lowest sale January, 2021 to date in the Village of Rhinebeck is $375,000 with closing on February 26, 2021.

The Village of Rhinebeck had a total of 4 sales in the $1,000,000+ price point January 1, 2020-December 31, 2020. There were no sales in this price point 1/1/2020-3/15/2020. To date, two homes have closed in the $1,000,000+ price point 1/1/2021-3/15/2021 with two additional homes currently active. While the absorption rate is currently 12 months for $1,000,000+ in the Village of Rhinebeck, it appears by movement and more contained current active listings in the Village (2) than the Town (9), that the Village is currently poised for a more favorable absorption adjustment swifter than the Town so long as an abundance of new $1,000,000+ listings do not enter the market in the Village before current are absorbed back into the market.

Both the Town and Village of Rhinebeck currently continue to indicate saturation in the $1,000,000+ price point by their unfavorable absorption rates of 15.4 and 12 months, respectively. Should the current 9 active listings in the Town of Rhinebeck not move swiftly to contract and sold before additional listings enter in this price point, the saturation could further increase absorption rates and take that much longer to sell in the $1,000,000+ price point.

Town of Red Hook

There is less to be gleaned from the Town of Red Hook market momentum reports as of the January 1, 2021-March 15, 2021 analysis. The $0-$300,000 price range was down 50% in inventory versus the same period in 2020. The Town of Red Hook is showing strength in the $300,000-$500,000 price points, pacing particularly solid in $300,000-$450,000 range. The $500,000-$550,000 range is showing signs for potential saturation. The $800,000-1,000,000 range is showing increased activity in active, contract and sold versus 2020. With only one home listed $1,000,000+, the Town of Red Hook currently does not wave the high end saturation red flag.

Village of Red Hook

While down 50% in units sold in the January 1-March 15, 2021 timeframe versus same period 2020, $0-$350,000 price range is showing the most activity in active, contract and sold out off all price points in the Village. There has not been enough activity during these first months of 2021 for conclusive analysis or projections for the Village of Red Hook.
The Straight Talk Series on YouTube @hudsonvalleynest
with Sandi and expert panelists

Wishing you all the best as we make our way through another charged Spring Market. I appreciate your referrals and will take very good care of those entrusted with my services.

Best always,
Sandi
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Sandi Park
Associate Real Estate Broker
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services
Hudson Valley Properties
M: 914-522-6282
Serving the Dutchess County market with offices in LaGrangeville and Rhinebeck, NY