August, 2021
The Market Now
Hi all,

I have to say, this past week has been a doozy. I have never had a home burn to the ground one day prior to closing. Couple that with a week that has noticeably picked up motion with both buyer and seller clients. I personally think September and October are going to be quite active considering the level of activity already anticipated in August, historically one of the slowest months in real estate. Not this year.

Bit on my mind about the market to share. I also have a new listing coming on the market on Tuesday I'm very excited about as it's checking the "historic home in a private, quiet and bucolic setting" boxes. Pictures and info further down. Here we go...
How are Buyers Holding Up?

For self preservation, many buyers are taking sporadic emotional retreats from real estate for a recharge. I call these "buyer breather moments" and, when I can, I take a recharge right along with them. Buyers have been exasperated dealing with the emotional roller coaster of multiple offers, lack of inventory throughout price points and/or overly aggressive pricing. Buyers have become more particular (and protective) about what they will emotionally invest themselves in after being run over in multiple offers. It appears more and more sellers are getting the message from increased "buyer retreats" and responding with more timely price reductions. The buyers revolting to a certain level I believe could be a factor that continues the push toward a more stabilized market. The higher end has been showing signs of stabilization for some time now.

What about the Sellers?

While my seller clients have enjoyed lucrative, some in the six figure, returns over asking price this past year, the market we are in is truly not healthy at core. The instances of overly aggressive pricing are annoying for buyers, at best (one of my buyer clients shared it was "insulting",) and a shame for sellers truly motivated to sell as they stand to lose precious time, and return, from a sellers market while waiting out unrealistic pricing.

The reality is, a seller can ask anything they want, but the buyers ultimately determine value in the sale price. One of my clients realized the highest percentage (43%) over asking in Dutchess County out of all brokerages and agents after accepting my counsel with a low range open. Not under priced, in range, but the lower end of the price range provided. I have found in this market as I did during the early 2000's bubble and burst, if it's going to go higher, the buyers are willing to climb the ladder against each other and increase that price. Clients that have accepted my counsel have found the ultimate increase noticeably, if not by far, exceeded the top end of the initial "range." Overpricing is not a "strategy" and most often only serves to open the door for downward price adjustment.

Sellers that hold with overly aggressive pricing may find themselves looking at entirely different numbers if they stay on the shelf long enough for a turn into either a neutral or even buyers market. Houses in our area that sit in the current market, particularly that check coveted boxes and are priced below $600,000, are not selling because of: 1) inaccurate pricing 2) ineffective marketing or 3) both. Plain and simple.
Where's the Deal in this Market?

Sadly, our inventory shortage is further fed by this overpricing situation as buyers will most often opt to walk rather than subject themselves to entertaining an overpriced listing. That doesn't mean there isn't opportunity to pull together a deal down the road. The overpriced listings generally end up sitting. Sitting listings are exactly where I counsel my buyers to put primary focus. I'm also scanning for expired and withdrawn listings.

The strategy I employ for my buyer clients is to swoop in before those overpriced listings make a formal reduction, which could trigger a bidding war. The goal is to make that reduction my clients alone. I watch listing histories like a hawk for my clients and have secured deals for multiple thousands under asking during this challenging market that way.
Instagram Series

The overall market will be further addressed in the next episode of my IGTV series on Instagram: "The Market Now." I have decided for my next up in the "Tips and Advice" series is a straight talk discussion on how to chose a realtor (whether buying or selling). This industry of mine has a bit of a rap. With some of the issues I experience and things I see, I can't say it's fully unwarranted, but I do think an important part of it starts with the fundamental choice in real estate partner. This is the home - which makes this a high emotion industry. Couple that with big dollars going on the table. There are important considerations when choosing who to align with for what is for most the singular largest investment. I hope.you find informative. Would appreciate feedback!

I am actively engaged on Instagram. I have been expanding my channel content on Instagram if you're interested in following: @HudsonValleyNest
Adjustment Coming?
There is no historical pattern to suggest we can sustain this trajectory so best to anticipate an adjustment is coming. It's just a matter of when and what the ultimate triggers will be. No one has a crystal ball, but I have thoughts on this.

Interest rates have been holding low. Rate hikes could be a game changer for at least certain mortgaged buyers. There have not been indications of hikes in the near term, but at some time there is likelihood we will move off these historic lows. Eviction moratoriums are scheduled to lift at the end of August, but I only see that as potentially adding marginal inventory to the market with a percentage of property owners done being landlords. I personally say scalp investment properties if a deal is to be had as rentals are hot now and if there is an issue with foreclosures down the road, rentals are most often the scale down. Then there is that dirty word....taxes.

I've spoken with quite a few tax accessor offices throughout the county to best prepare my clients. I have yet to hear conclusive on what to expect. There will most likely be assessment adjustments based on these escalated sale prices at least to some level. Upward adjustments may leave some owners with numbers that no longer work within budget with homes entering the market.

The current real estate market is a classic study in supply and demand. If enough additional homes enter the market to impact supply, that can tip the scale to a balanced or even buyers market, depending on how extreme the increase is in inventory. If buyers retreat due to myriad reasons, demand decreases.

There are a number of factors that could contribute to an adjustment. Unless something completely unexpected happens (which this past year has proven can happen), I expect the sellers market will continue through 2021, but I do think more buyers will succeed in securing homes in the Fall market with sellers that held on to overly aggressive pricing coming off the perch, for one.
Modest and Luxury

While higher in taxes than certain surrounding towns, Hyde Park continues to see the lions share of inventory options available along with swift sales in the below $350,000 price point.

The luxury market in Dutchess County is still on the move, although it is showing signs of saturation. To share perspective, in 2019, there were a total of 35 sales $1,000,000+ in Dutchess County. The $1,000,000+ market shot up in 2020 from 25 closed sales January 1, 2020-August 1, 2020 to finish the year with 124 closed sales, a 254% increase over 2019.

January 1, 2021 to date, Dutchess County has realized 70 closed transactions in the $1,000,000+ price point with 32 currently in contract. Real estate historically has another "pop" in September and October. Dutchess County could close out the year aligned, if not higher, in units sold versus 2020 for $1,000,000+. With 98 remaining luxury listings currently active in Dutchess County in this price point, it does appear the luxury market is saturated, regardless.
Millbrook Fire Update

It appears my clients that owned the Millbrook home that burned down have been advised the cause was determined to be undetermined. "Undetermined electrical fire" appears the conclusion from their insurance company. It is unfortunate my clients could not have conclusive resolve, but we move forward. Holding gratitude no one was hurt. I have gotten several inquiries regarding the five bucolic acres the house rested on. My clients are focused on one thing at a time, but I will inform as appropriate.

Poughkeepsie

Poughkeepsie as a whole has been experiencing revitalization and growth since well before Covid. Vassar Brothers Medical Center alone anticipates approximately 200 new medical staff over the next three years. Combine this with train accessibility and more contained costs for commercial and residential options than southern counties. While not the low cost for entry as in days past with multitude building permit signs in windows throughout the city since well before Covid, I continue to consider Poughkeepsie on the "worthy investment list." In fact, since this growth was already well underway prior to Covid, Poughkeepsie has a likelihood to be more insulated from potential market adjustments going forward, IMHO. Now that I've sold you on Poughkeepsie...

Black Horse Manor
115 Hooker Avenue
Poughkeepsie

There is a coveted combination coming on the market in the south side of Poughkeepsie on Tuesday that I wanted to share with my subscriber base. This former home of the mayor will be offered at $619,000.

There is quite a bit I like about this house, but the custom floor to ceiling windows and stonework in the kitchen that transcend inside to outdoor living and the bucolic property make me flat out salivate. The stone surround indoor/outdoor grill with pass-through to the expansive gathering back porch is a creature comfort I didn't realize I had to have until I saw it. Check out the listing for more information, pictures and video at link below.

Quick stats:

Year built - Circa 1920
3598 square feet
Four bedrooms plus bonus room
Three full and two half bathrooms
Two wood burning fireplaces
2.39 quiet, private and bucolic acres
Gas hookup option
Sewer/municipal water
Generous pool/tennis court site
Expansive front and back gathering porches along with screened in Florida room. All enjoy bucolic views.

Coming on the market for $619,000 on Tuesday, August 3rd. Contact Sandi for choice scheduling in advance of market introduction. Contact info below.

Black Horse Manor
115 Hooker Avenue
Poughkeepsie
Glass wall eat-in kitchen
Indoor to outdoor stone surround grill
Driveway lined with majestic trees and lush landscape. Highly cooperative deer.
Stay up to date in between newsletters by following along on Instagram! Enjoy the remainder of summer. 🌈

Best,
Sandi
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Sandi Park
Associate Real Estate Broker
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services
Hudson Valley Properties
M: 914-522-6282
Email:  spark@hudsonvalleynest.com
Serving the Dutchess County market with offices in LaGrangeville and Rhinebeck, NY