Hello all,

We are rolling deep dive with this one. Apologies for the delay with getting this edition out. We had family health issues in September that took center stage.

Rising interest rates and hits to portfolios have fueled a shift in the market pendulum that's been churning for months. Dutchess and Ulster appear a bit more insulated in the immediate moment than Westchester and Putnam. Why?  

In many instances, the price/tax/interest rate combo has either taken buyers out of the ring completely or created need for price range adjustment. As was also the case before Covid, but now even more with interest rate fluctuations, there are a segment of buyers pressing further northbound to secure price and tax relief and stay in budget.

Cash buyers are still around, but in far less number than the height of Covid craze. Many cash buyers are opting for the sidelines awaiting more leverage, opportunities and/or heightened economic stability. I am also working out of state for investors exploring other areas in the country viewed as more favorable for different portfolio investment types.

Varied mortgage types have also been making their way to the table with more frequency than during the height of Covid craze when straight conventional mortgages were having a hard enough time competing with cash. FHA, VA and USDA loans that rarely bothered coming to the table during the "frenzy period" have regained bearing. In that regard, there has been an expansion of home ownership opportunity, which is refreshing.

It’s a bit like musical chairs right now as many buyers scramble into position with an air of panic as interest rates fluctuate. According to a Redfin analysis, rates underwent more volatility during the three month window ending September, 2022 than the three month period dating back to Black Monday in 1987. This is not suggesting a market crash as I do believe we are in for an adjustment rather than a crash, but that was an interesting comparison.

Let's dissect this market a bit. 

Here we go...

Up or Down?

Whether up or down in inventory depends on the stat. Per the Mid-Hudson multiple listing service, Dutchess county was up 1.1% in inventory YTD as of September, 2022. To keep things in perspective, while "up," the look back comparison is to September, 2021, a time enduring historic low inventory. When comparing to the "normal trending" years with 1,347 single family detached homes available in September 2018 and 1,298 in September, 2019, the current 637 available is still riding less than half of the normal pre-Covid inventory levels. Dutchess is noted by example, but inventory shortage is still pervasive throughout the Hudson Valley region.

Low inventory is usually a prominent factor in a sellers market. Absorption rates (the time it takes for a property to cycle through the sale process) are still also pointing to a sellers market as we are still far below the 7+ month mark that defines a buyers market. So why not assume sellers market business as Covid usual in the real estate world?

While demand still exists, there is an interesting stat below that sheds light on shifts in demand. Demand is an integral component when determining whether it is a sellers, buyers or neutral market. We are still in a sellers market, but on multiple fronts it appears Fall market is most likely riding absolute tailwinds. Let's just say if you're interested in selling, a wait for Spring Market 2023 will most likely yield a much different than the initial years of Covid.  Reach out to me if you would like to capture the remains of Fall market with a sale.

Multiple Offers

There are still multiple offers on certain listings, but generally not as fevered in recent months. My Clinton Corners clients enjoyed $133,000 over ask on a $589,000 listing that closed in July, but I'm not expecting continued flights over ask to that level going forward. Click here to view that listing

One of my September, 2022 listings in Red Hook enjoyed 19 showings and 4 offers with none under ask and two contained, yet noticeably, over ask. While still more activity than pre-Covid, the quantity of buyer showings and offers is generally far less now than during the height of Covid. I have a direct comparison with this Red Hook house to demonstrate the settle down.

During the period of Covid height, one of my listings in Millbrook was priced comparably to the Red Hook property noted above and entered the market just over a year earlier in June, 2021. Once again, Red Hook had 19 showings and 4 offers. In comparison, Millbrook enjoyed 64 showings and 32 offers in 4 days. I lost my voice for a bit toward the end of that showing schedule. The home tragically burned to the ground the day prior to closing, but was set to close for $100,000 over ask, cash. Not bad on a $287,000 listing. See listing here.  (The Mid Hudson MLS interface is clunky. Ignore the business card side. Click on link on left). Prior to burning down, the home was featured in the New York Times real estate section cover story along with an interview with yours truly (three full paragraphs of ink in the Times - woohoo!) "Finding a Diamond in the Rough." See article here. 

The noticeable decrease (42.9%, per Mid-Hudson MLS) in purchase offers in September 2022 v. September 2021 YTD is telling considering we are slightly up in inventory YTD (1.1%) versus September 2021. Why are buyers not moving forward with offers as this 42% decrease stat suggests?

There are myriad reasons why buyers don’t move forward with purchase, but there appear two top reasons in current market...

➡️ Interest rates adjusting buying power for mortgaged buyers with many cash buyers taking a seat in the sidelines awaiting leverage, opportunities and heightened economic stabilization.

What does 7+% equate to? Many mortgaged buyers are feeling the squeeze as interest rates continue on the ascent. Marry the house and date the rate, sure, but at the same time, it's important to make certain the price range has not adjusted due to interest rate increases.

I have had four words for my mortgaged buyers when it comes to rate instability: look into rate locks. We could start to see some very disappointed buyers and sellers (and increase in "back on market") if mortgaged transactions fall apart prior to closing should adjusted rates affect buying power to the point a mortgage at contract price is no longer attainable. 

Jim Gallagher with Fairway Mortgage shared an example snapshot of what these changing rates can mean to a budget. The below are examples. Credit scores, varied down payment and other factors can affect interest rates and monthly payments. Taxes have also not been included as they can vary greatly by town, county and state. PMI for down payments lower than 20% has also not been factored. Loans used in examples are conventional and calculate only loan amount and interest rate over a 30 year term.

Here is an example of what current rates mean:

$350,000 buyer - since lower price points statistically have lower down payments, 5% down was used in the example.

$350,000, 5% down, 95% financed

Interest rate: 7.125%

Monthly payment: $2,240

$550,000, 20% down, 80% financed

Interest rate: 7.125%

Monthly payment: $3,822

$850,000, 25% down (lowers rate a bit)

Interest rate: 7%

Monthly payment: $4,241

The best way to know specific to you is to speak with a lender. Reach out if you need recommendations. 

➡️ Overpriced listing. Solid pricing and effective marketing are key in any market type.

While not my clients experience, there have been numerous listings that reduced in price and/or expired (did not sell during the term of the listing agreement) throughout Covid. There were 595 expired listings in 2021 in Dutchess County alone; regardless of Covid frenzy and historic record low inventory shortages.

What do price reductions and expired listings during the height of Covid frenzy prove? It's not about "timing the market," but rather timing "in" the market. Read: Get on and off the shelf. 

Since the inception of Covid when the real estate market went from shutdown to Tsunami, I learned the market could change on a dime. My clients enter the market as a buttoned up package from Day One. Solid pricing backed by highly effective marketing. Buyers are targeted and reached. All a home sitting in the hot market we've had is lead buyers to question what's wrong with the house. It is a much stronger position to negotiate between multiple offers rather than negotiate down with a singular buyer. My clients have fared quite well throughout Covid by taking this counsel.

I predict price reductions and expirations will continue in greater number as we move forward if a firm pulse is not kept on market adjustments by those counseling on pricing or worse yet, sellers count on Zillow Zestimates for pricing. 

If you’re interested in a market momentum report specific to your town, reach out. I custom produce these reports as I have not seen the information gleaned on the granular level I seek available otherwise. Color me nerd, but I find them to be an instrumental tool when counseling both buyer and seller clients. They are also foundational to varied content in The Brick.

Defining Covid Luxury Moments

The ultra high end ($10,000,000+) has moved swiftly throughout Covid, averaging five months from list to sale with the exception of one that had been on the market for years prior to Covid, but then flew off the shelf at the onset of Covid.

Ultra high end sales in the history of the Mid-Hudson multiple listing services (spanning 27 years) have been in the Northern Tier of Dutchess with one exception in Pawling. Out of the eight ultra high end sales above $10,000,000 that have sold in Dutchess County since 1995 per Mid Hudson MLS), five were sold during Covid (April, 2020-September, 2022). The two top tier sales during Covid featured below are neighbors off coveted River Road in Red Hook township/Rhinebeck PO with roots in the Astor/Delano family lines.

Accepted offer: March, 2020

Sold: April, 2020

First Ultra High End Sale During Covid

124 Martins Road, Red Hook Township

Rhinebeck PO

Most recent Asking Price: $15,000,000

Sale Price: $16,500,000

This estate was originally listed in 2016 for $22,000,000. After price reductions, in 2018 the price was lowered to $15,000,000. The estate sat for another two years until an accepted offer at the start of the shutdown in March, 2020. It closed a month later for $16,500,000 (presumably cash), proving even a sitting ultra high end was not immune to multiple offers once Covid kicked in. Click here or on pic for full listing.

Market Entry: May 27, 2022

Accepted Offer: August, 2022

Sold: September 9, 2022

124 Eden Knoll, Red Hook Township,

Rhinebeck PO

Asking Price: $25,000,000

Sale Price: $18,500,000

Highest Sale in Mid-Hudson MLS history.

Click here for full listing

I have learned to not define my work by price point but rather clients and project. I have worked in modest through ultra luxury throughout my career with this philosophy. In an effort to offer my luxury clients an unparalleled level of global marketing representation, I transitioned to Coldwell Banker Global Luxury this past Spring. I have been a global luxury specialist since my early roots in Westchester County and maintain membership with the HGAR/OneKey multiple listing service in Westchester as one of multiple MLS memberships. Should you or someone you know seek global level seasoned representation, let's talk.

Interested in seeing all eight ultra luxury homes that have sold during Mid-Hudson multiple listing service recorded history, beginning in 1995? Click here for the lineup. There are currently three active listings in Dutchess County above $10,000,000. Two of the the three will not be realizing the "five month average" selling windows with already extended time on market. The third came on in May, 2022. Click here for current active ultra luxury listings. 

This is not the time to "test" or dig heels in on unrealistic pricing. High end generally gets hit first in a changing market. Eden Knoll above sold quickly, but for several million below ask. Suggestion to the sitting listings out there: Leverage the remains of this market. Adjust now, increase marketing and get off the shelf.

Dutchess County was already enjoying steady trending growth prior to Covid. While the median increase is healthy, an adjustment appears on tap. No one has a crystal ball, but my bet is that it will not be a crash, at least in our area. Other parts of the country are further advanced in adjustment with more noticeable increases in inventory and lowering in prices. That is not to say we will be shielded and 2023 is absolutely questionable, but I question the harshness of the anticipated hit in our area for the most part.

In an adjustment, there will likely be heightened vulnerability for valuation fluctuations with properties that checked "coveted boxes" and went bidding war ballistic during Covid (country home/quiet country road/pool or pool site, etc.).

Sometimes it's good to just let yourself go. This one is not my listing with pricing and marketing set by a colleague but it did get me rapping into my lockbox.  If you're curious what a rapping realtor nets out to look like, take a quick peek at this 30 second video. Contact my press agent for autographs. LOL. 

The residence encompasses 6,822 square feet. The first floor primary en-suite bedroom features two generous custom walk in closets. The primary bathroom beckons peaceful exhale with picture window soaking tub, open multi spray shower and custom mood lighting.

Three additional bedrooms and bathrooms, massive bonus room with separate theater potential (or second primary suite?), laundry room and custom mudroom cabinetry finish main living areas with full finished basement to enjoy additional recreational options.

Prime end of culdesac lot with set back. The back provides the perfect balance of groomed sward for recreation and forestry for privacy. Stone patio, expansive screened deck flowing to open deck for grill station. Pool site, if desired. Generous three car garage with charging station.

Come home to The Reserve at Tamarack Hill Estates for the holidays and peaceful living. 90 minutes from NYC. 10 minutes from Millbrook. Town of Poughkeepsie. Arlington schools. $2,250,000. See full listing here.

Contact Sandi Park for more information and to schedule a private showing.

Listing courtesy Corcoran Group 

Less and More

POV

Less Realtors, More Experts - There was a surge of freshly minted salespeople that entered the market during Covid. "Best and Final," "Multiple Offer," "Waive appraisal and inspection" "15 minute showings" all became routine (yet still annoying, particularly when buyers were treated as cattle, but I digress) Buyers can lick their wounds and start to breathe again while appropriately considering their purchase. (Did I hear hallelujah?!) We are coming into a different space. Different language. Different skills. I believe there will likely be a "weeding out" of some realtors in the days ahead.  With an 87% failure rate (ouch), this is a tougher industry than some may have realized going in.

Less Multiple Offers, More Expired Listings - This was addressed in opening of the newsletter. I fully expect to see an increase in price reductions and expired listings as the market adjusts. Reverse of what happened when the gates first opened after the shutdown.

We had a period of "Wild West" as the market adjusted at the outset of Covid. During those initial months, unless Realtors cooperated with one another, it was extremely challenging to run comparatives based on accepted offer and contract as the accepted/contract price is not usually shared until the home trades in case it goes back on market. Is the house going for 10%, 20%, 30% or more over asking? It was impossible to guess in those early days. There were periods during Covid of heightened camaraderie among Realtors. That period was definitely one of them.

Less Demand, More Inventory - Yes, that day is coming. Another word for it: Buyers market or at the least a neutral market. The buyers day will come as real estate is an ever changing market. We have no historical precedence to suggest we will remain in one market type. The days of "no appraisal/no concession/no inspection" are already coming to a close. 

The Rental Market

The multi-family pictured here is one of my Kingston listings readying to close. I am very warm on rental investments and have been advising investor clients accordingly. With more and more first time buyers being pushed out of the market, rentals should continue on the ascent. I have been approached by now multiple investor clients exploring outside of New York. Since I have my brokers license, I have the ability to secure license reciprocity with many states. Whether local or out of state, reach out if you are interested in investment opportunities.

Speaking of which, Spring Lake Cottages in Red Hook is a special opportunity. It is a four cottage/six unit fully occupied long term lakefront rental property. The property enjoys an approximate 7% cap and has been impeccably maintained. The rent roll, expenses, survey, etc... are all available and I would be happy to send if interested. It is unique to have a lifestyle long term rental property in the portfolio. Below is a quick tour that brings the property to life. Click here for full listing.

IN CONTRACT

Commercial/Residential/Office

Five acres in prime visibility location

Just south of Hudson

Catskill Mountain views

Two parcels of commercial land within minutes of hopping Hudson (adjacent 2 acres and 2.8 acres with one being a corner lot.)See Full Listing Here 

It's a wrap! Enjoy the bounty of beauty that surrounds us. Feel free to reach out with any questions you may have on the market or if you need professional referrals. 

Speaking of referrals, they are the foundation of my business. Should you know of someone interested in buying or selling, I would appreciate sharing my info...and forwarding along my newsletter. ;)

Seatbelts on! It could get bumpy ahead...

Best,

Sandi