October, 2021
Another price bump ahead?
Hello all,

In deviation from our regularly scheduled programming, this photo captured one of my fav combos: country road, Fall foliage and Catskill mountain views. When not meeting with clients and evaluating properties, I often find myself going for simultaneous exhale and recharge a la Mother Nature. Enjoying the suburban and rural beauty that defines the Hudson Valley with camera in hand (and teens in tow if I strike the right bribery chord) is always a treat. Hope you're enjoying this scenic Hudson Valley season.

In this issue...

  • While by no means a trend in only two months, the current median sale price for single family detached homes remained at $415,000 from August to September, 2021 per Mid-Hudson multiple listing service ("MHMLS".) after primarily steady month to month escalation since June 2020. Does this suggest the beginning of price stabilization?

  • Current closed sales were noticeably down per MHMLS for single family detached homes in August and September, 2021, as well. Does this mean buyer appetite may have been fulfilled or product sought simply wasn't available? Read on.

  • There are a percentage of homes that continue to sit on the market despite inventory (property available for sale) continuing to teeter for nearly six months straight at approximately 30% below the last recorded low of May, 2004 with September, 2021 falling 37.7% below available listing inventory in September, 2020. For new subscribers, homes that are sitting on the market rather than selling with such high buyer interest is due primarily to ineffective marketing, overly aggressive pricing or both.

  • Foreclosure aversion on tap? Are buyers having appraisal issues? How are interest rates holding?

Here we go...
Last Call
The sellers market party is destined to come to an end with sellers that would not budge off overly aggressive pricing likely finding themselves faced with a neutral, if not a buyers market, down the road. I don't expect buyers will show much empathy after licking their bidding war wounds and cleansing the tire marks from their Covid real estate market faces. Even when representing my seller clients, I hold compassion for what many buyers have been through during this time.

Have sellers hit "last call" for elevated pricing? I believe there is potential for a finale price bump in early to mid Spring market so long as a "trigger" doesn't catapult the market into adjustment sooner. To read more about potential triggers, visit www.hudsonvalleynest.com and scroll down to The Brick for past issues. See September, 2021: Have we hit Apex?
Are Buyers Still Hungry?

From purely a statistical standpoint, YTD closed sales on single family detached ("SFD") homes was up 25% as of September, 2021, yet current closed sales for SFD were down in September, 2021 by 15.8%. August was up 33.9% YTD in SFD closed sales, but down in current closed sales by 10.5% according to MHMLS.

Some buyers have lost interest in the bidding wars and elevated pricing, but my bet is enough product that checks coveted boxes has simply not been available or, if it was, overpriced. Combine this with historic lows in inventory generally speaking and it's not a shocker to see a decrease in closed sales. That doesn't mean buyers aren't still hungry. Frustrated seems the operative word - buyers and realtors alike. By no means the necessary "norm" prior to Covid, I routinely cross multiple counties to secure housing for my buyer clients.

Buyer interest is still alive and well, particularly for houses that check coveted boxes, are solidly priced and effectively marketed. Here are a few examples of recent bidding wars that continue across price points. While my sale at 256 Linden Avenue in Red Hook still holds the Dutchess County record for highest percentage (43%) over asking price, 7 Mill Street in Rhinebeck made a respectable go for the record. The Mill Street house is well updated, renovated and decorated. At the same time, it is not a large home, it has road noise from Route 9, it is not in the heart of the Village of Rhinebeck but rather a 10 or so minute walk and it is located directly across the street from the new farmers market coming to town. Regardless, it checked the "circa" home, move-in condition and walk to the Village of Rhinebeck coveted boxes. The home was was listed for $599,000 in August, 2021 and sold for $178,000 over asking at $777,000 in October, 2021. Click here to see the full listing. Happy seller indeed. Interested in how multiple offers are handled from a realtor perspective for buyer and seller clients? Check out my take in this five minute video.

My listing at 15 N. Hinterlands in Rhinebeck entered the market in September, 2021 after being listed with two other realtors for nearly three years. In testament to solid pricing and effective marketing, within two weeks we had multiple offers with it selling over the $1,798,000 asking price. Less than 30 days to fully executed contract for this all cash deal. Click here to see full listing. Take a four minute video tour of this beautiful estate by clicking here. Another example of a home that had been listed for years with multiple realtors yet swiftly enjoyed multiple offers before contract was my listing at 115 Hooker Avenue in Poughkeepsie, also known as Black Horse Manor (ok - I named it ;) See full listing here.

These are just a few examples. Buyer interest is still alive and well. There simply isn't enough product, which is further decreased by a percentage of overpriced homes just sitting. I believe we will see more options on the market in Spring Market 2022 as further discussed below.
Spring Market 2022

I already have several listings anticipated for Spring Market 2022 with certain sellers starting to opt to wait until "after the holidays" for various reasons. If history repeats itself, this delay stance will likely increase as the holidays approach. There is a high degree of confidence other realtors are already in the know of listings for early 2022, as well. I also foresee a certain amount of inventory added to the market in foreclosure aversion. More on foreclosure further down.

Initially, these new listings will likely be gobbled up by hungry buyers that were not able to secure their dream property in 2020 or 2021. This could trigger more multiple offers for certain properties which would likely trigger another price bump. CoreLogic forecasts home prices will climb another 3.2% by June 2022. However, I believe if that indeed does happen, that will likely be the last bump we see from the Covid induced market before adjustments start kicking in for multiple reasons. This is all assuming a trigger doesn't happen that catapults the market into sooner adjustment.
Interest Rates

We are in the middle of the five year period when the largest tranche (my latest fancy word) of millennials (born 1989 to 1993) are hitting their 30's; the age when first time home buying really kicks into gear. Combine this with general increased interest in the Hudson Valley as a primary or co-primary residence and it does appear the market should stay healthy with buyers so long as interest rates don't take a noticeable hike. As Vincent Aurigemma, Vice President, Residential Lending with Rhinebeck Bank shared, "The buzz is really around whether the Fed will start to reduce the amount of mortgaged backed securities they will buy. As they taper it off, rates will go up. What I have told people for a long time is look at the history of rates. We are at or near the bottom of all time. Rates are incredibly low. Not sure what anyone would be waiting for."

The reality is, if interest rates go up, buying power will most likely decrease. While some are awaiting price adjustment, that could very well be brought on by increased interest rates. This could effectively net a buyer in the same or similar position by not waiting and enjoying record low interest rates with albeit elevated pricing.

If you are interested in getting a mortgage, I interviewed Mr. Aurigemma as well as Jackie Fellin, Chief Lending Officer with TEG Federal Credit Union. This interview is very informative about the entire process of getting a mortgage, considerations and pitfalls to avoid. To watch, visit my "Tips and Advice" series on YouTube by clicking here.

It appears many banks are understaffed to meet current appraisal demand. Delays in both appraisals and title continue regardless of reduced closed sales of late. Appraisals have become more and more dicey as appraisers sensitivity to escalated pricing appears to have increased. I have been hearing of more and more mortgaged buyers having appraisals that fall below the contract price. This has not happened for my clients as yet. I show up to meet the appraiser with comparative in hand to discuss regardless whether the mortgaged buyer or the seller is my client. If the house doesn't appraise and the buyer has a mortgage contingency (which inherently includes the appraisal unless contractually noted as excluded) then the buyer can ultimately walk away from the deal with their deposit if the parties cannot agree otherwise with how to make up the gap. With current appraisal delay, this could equate to 30 days the seller is off the market for all intents and purposes as once a deal goes into contract showings cease. My clients routinely enjoy multiple offers well over asking price. Guidance to seller clients is crucial when evaluating buyer options. Cash is generally king, but there are other contingencies I negotiate with mortgaged buyers to better protect my seller clients from appraisal gap exposure. If the mortgaged buyer is my client, it's all about finding ways to position them as favorably as possible against cash.
Forbearance Lift

The foreclosure moratorium prevented foreclosures on federally backed mortgages and came to an end on July 31. The mortgage forbearance program, which allowed some borrowers to pause their payments, lapsed on September 30. The forbearance program protected approximately 3.5% of US mortgages or 1.75 million borrowers, per ATTOM, licensor of the nations most comprehensive foreclosure data and parent company to RealtyTrac, the largest online marketplace for foreclosure and distressed properties. The foreclosure process can easily take 2-3 years with New York being a judicial state it could even take up to 6 years. in comparison, Montana experienced the shortest nationwide average foreclosure timeline in Q3 2021 of 94 days. States with highest foreclosure rates in September 2021 were Florida, Illinois and Delaware. 10,289 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process in September, 2021 - up 23% from the previous month. States that posted the greatest number of foreclosure starts in Q3 2021 include California, Texas, Florida, New York and Illinois.

With the lengthy judicial process in New York for foreclosures, I do not see a tsunami of them actually entering the market in 2022, I do see the potential for increased inventory in Spring Market 2022 with homeowners opting to sell their homes in a sellers market while averting foreclosure though. Should this be a path considered, feel free to reach out to me to discuss options. Also, selling a home after coming out of forbearance and information to know about timing and what the banks will expect was included in interview with bank executives from Rhinebeck Bank and TEG Federal Credit Union. The entire interview is highly informative regarding the mortgage process, but if forbearance is specifically of interest, fast forward approximately 32 minutes to Ms Jackie Fellin, Chief Lending Officer with TEG Federal Credit Union. This video can be accessed in the "Tips and Advice" series on my YouTube channel by click here.
Land Alert

I have five acres of land just outside of Hudson coming on the market soon. It is zoned commercial/residential/office. Generous frontage on Route 9. Expansive Catskill mountain views. There are additional parcels that have the capability of creating an assemblage of up to approximately 50 total acres. Level and most of the parcels are cleared,

Reach out if interested.
Series on YouTube @HudsonValleyNest

My next video in the "Tips and Advice" series available on YouTube (@HudsonValleyNest) and on my website (www.hudsonvalleynest.com) will focus on considerations when choosing a real estate partner.

Whether buying or selling, this is the singular largest investment for most. I have seen enough to hope it could ultimately help the reputation of my industry if at least equal consideration to the choice in real estate partner is given at the outset akin to other investment choices. I will address what to consider and questions to ask when interviewing a real estate agent from both a buyer and seller perspective.

Subscribe to my YouTube channel for immediate notification when this series recording is uploaded and check out other recordings currently available in the Tips and Advice series, which include:

  • Obtaining a Mortgage during Covid (Jackie Fellin/TEG Federal Credit Union and Vince Aurigemma/Rhinebeck Bank)
  • Building a Custom Home (Mike Dignacco, Partner & VP of Stoneleaf Construction; builders of Silo Ridge in Amenia and award winning/Internationally recognized Carol Kurth, Carol Kurth Architecture & Interiors)
  • Decluttering for Dollars (Ellen Cutner/professional organizer)
  • Buying a Home from a Realtor and Investor Perspective
  • What to Expect During a Home inspection (Dale Robbin, Robbin Home Inspections)
Hudson Valley Nest - Email Change

I'm transitioning all to Hudson Valley Nest. Future editions of the The Brick will show "spark@hudsonvalleynest.com" as sender. Please update your email if needed so you don't miss a beat!
I moved north to Dutchess County a few years ago after always living in Westchester and Putnam and holding my brokers license there for over twenty years. While I still go back for limited clientele that refuse to accept my relocation, I haven't looked back. I have to say the weatherperson sharing the "best day of the week for a hike" as part of the weekly forecast is a tidbit I enjoy.

It's a wrap! Questions on the market? Interested in buying or selling? Partner with me on your journey and we will reach your goals! Stay up to date in between newsletters by following along on Instagram @HudsonValleyNest. Stay well.


Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Join The Brick community for the latest on the Hudson Valley real estate market! Click below or visit www.HudsonValleyNest.com to join.


Join me on Instagram for updates between newsletters, house tours and features in my voyages and more!

Sandi Park
Associate Real Estate Broker
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services
Hudson Valley Properties
M: 914-522-6282
Email:  spark@hudsonvalleynest.com
Serving the Dutchess County market with offices in LaGrangeville and Rhinebeck, NY