1. Will the South Hold?
As we were making our final preparations for Thanksgiving, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect in Lebanon. As Hezbollah found out the hard way, even though they ditched their smartphones, they still had to accept all the terms and conditions. Since September 17, when Hezbollah started getting some really bad news on their pagers and walkie-talkies, Israel has successsfully taken out that team of leading terrorists one criminal at a time (sometimes even a few at once).
To be fair, Israel needed this ceasefire, too. Since the day after the October 7 attack, Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets, drones, and ballistic missiles at Israel, and nearly a quarter-million Israelis have been displaced from their homes. Many towns and villages have been destroyed.
I doubt that Hezbollah will be able to maintain the ceasefire for 60 days. I expect them to declare victory regardless of what happens (whether there is anyone left to declare it is another question). I also expect some Israeli politicians and voters to say that, by accepting a ceasefire of any kind, Israel surrendered, while others will say that the ceasefire was a victory of colossal proportions. All of the above are sadly wrong.
.
Leaving Lebanon to the Lebanese is a strategy that has been tried and failed for decades. While Hezbollah must now move north of the Litani River, they will most likely start rebuilding immediately. Like everything in the Middle East and in Lebanon, what happens next is truly anyone's guess. I feel that the six months I spent in Lebanon back in 1982 tend to confuse my thinking rather than clarify it, but I will share one optimistic hope. By signing a ceasefire, Iran and Hezbollah are, de facto, leaving Hamas alone in their fight. The Shiite Iranian regime has supported Sunni Hamas in the past because they carried their water by fighting Israel. However, Yahya Sinwar's decision to attack Israel on October 7 seems to have been made alone. Since then, Hamas has been more of a hindrance than a help to Iran. Now that it has been decimated, it may no longer be a deemed worthy of support, particularly when resources are thin and Iran has other pressing needs to rebuild capabilities for itself and for Hezbollah.
|