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My 3 year old son is a big fan of the movie Toy Story. Often, our living room turns into "Andy's room" with Woody, Buzz Lightyear, Mr. Potato Head, Slinky Dog, and the rest of the gang scattered across the floor. He grabs Buzz, climbs onto the couch, and yells "To Infinity and Beyond!" as he launches himself through the air towards the cushions below.
As I was thinking about the current stock market environment recently, I realized that phrase may be one of the best ways to describe what we are seeing unfold in certain sectors of the market today.
Interestingly, there may be an even deeper connection.
The original Toy Story was released in 1995, right in the middle of one of the greatest technology-driven bull markets in modern history. The internet was beginning to reshape the economy, personal computers were spreading rapidly, and investors became captivated by the idea that technology would change everything.
They were right.
But eventually, excitement turned into speculation. By the late 1990's, capital was pouring into nearly anything tied to the internet, regardless of whether the underlying businesses were profitable or sustainable. When the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, many of those speculative companies disappeared entirely.
Importantly, however, the internet itself was not the problem. The technology ultimately changed the world exactly as many believed it would. The issue was that investors temporarily lost discipline and pushed valuations to unsustainable levels.
Today’s AI market shares some similarities, but there are important differences as well.
The current leaders are concentrated less in speculative startups and more in established companies building the physical infrastructure required to power artificial intelligence: semiconductors, memory, optical networking, data centers, cooling systems, and power management.
In many ways, today’s market resembles the early infrastructure phase of the internet buildout. AI models require enormous amounts of compute power, advanced chips, memory, networking equipment, and entirely new data center architecture. Every layer of that ecosystem is experiencing explosive demand simultaneously.
As a result, many of the market’s largest gainers this year have come from areas most investors barely discussed a few years ago.
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