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January 5, 2023
Dear Friends:
Back at the start of December I said things didn't look too bad on the respiratory illness front.
Well, about that...
I did leave a little wiggle room to say that things looked okay at the moment, but could get worse. And at least with COVID, worse is in fact what they're getting.
Cases are relatively low compared to this time last year. But they've been increasing over the New Year's holiday. On January 3rd, Wisconsin reported 683 new cases. That's the fifth highest in the nation and ahead of much larger states like Texas and California. The Wisconsin Hospital Association is seeing the most COVID hospitalizations since last February.
There is some small silver lining here. The latest variant (see below) appears not to cause more severe illness than previous strains. Deaths in Wisconsin have not increased in the past couple of weeks. But the holiday season might have slowed reporting. The numbers could catch up with us later.
Still, according to one estimate, cases might gradually decline into the spring.
So what's to worry about? A few things:
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COVID seems to be surging in parts of the country. And as we've discussed before, what happens elsewhere in nation tends not to stay there.
- XBB.1.5 appears to be better at getting around immune defenses. That's true for vaccination or natural immunity from previous cases.
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Mask use and completion of the COVID booster series remain low in Wisconsin. And the number of people who have received any COVID vaccination has stalled since January 2022.
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China is seeing an enormous wave of infections. That has led to concerns that it might produce another variant of global concern. It's less likely, but still possible, that outbreaks in the US could do the same thing.
One journalist concludes that "XBB.1.5 is not a reset of the pandemic, but rather seems to be a further continuation of most of the past year." That sounds about right.
And while that's not the worst case scenario, it's far from being a good outcome. COVID seems determined to test us. It overloads our health care system. It strains our commitment to protecting vulnerable people. It weakens our resolve in taking the necessary steps to bring it under control.
Is it all bad news, nothing to be done about it, then? By no means!
- Getting fully vaccinated and boosted is still effective. It helps prevent infection and severe illness. That's especially important for people over 60, who are at highest risk of severe outcomes from COVID.
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Residents of Wisconsin can order free at-home COVID test kits delivered to their doors. I've attached some Say Yes! graphics to this email. Encourage your community to take part in the program.
- Many county and local health departments will make bulk orders of tests and masks for organizations in their area. Check with your health department, or drop me a line for help.
Thank you for sticking with me through this link-heavy note, and honestly, for being the people who still care about COVID. We do not need to accept the status quo forever. Your work, however incremental, makes a difference.
Stay warm and stay together,
Rev. Daniel Schultz
Community Health
Program Director
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