2024 | September 16

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The Markets

Stocks Gain

The major U.S. stock indexes rallied, posting weekly gains ranging from around 3% to 6% that were nearly equal in magnitude to the previous week’s steep losses. Much of September’s volatility has been driven by the information technology sector, which dropped 7% to start the month before gaining back 7% in the latest week.

Stocks rose after a Consumer Price Index reading provided one of the last data points for the U.S. Federal Reserve prior to its consideration of an interest-rate cut at a meeting scheduled to conclude on Wednesday. The inflation report showed that consumer prices rose at a 2.5% annual rate in August, down from July’s 2.9% figure and the lowest since February 2021.

Yields of U.S. government bonds extended their recent slide amid expectations of an interest-rate cut, and the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond sank to the lowest level since June 2023. Friday’s closing yield was 3.66%, down from a recent high of 4.70% in April.

A monthly indicator that tracks U.S. consumer sentiment extended its positive momentum. Friday’s 69.0 preliminary figure from the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was up slightly from the 67.9 reading in August, when the gauge rose for the first time in five months. Consumers’ expectations of inflation over the next year remained at their lowest level since December 2020.

At its two-day meeting concluding on Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first interest-rate reduction since early 2020. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed market expectations for a cut when he declared in an August 23 speech that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” However, it remained uncertain as of Friday whether the Fed is more likely to implement a 0.25% cut or a bigger 0.50% reduction.

Source: John Hancock Investment Management

The Economy, Taxes and the Election

Which is More Popular: Butter, Ice Cream, Yogurt or Cheese?

My best guess was ice cream, but that’s not the case. Ilena Peng of Bloomberg explained, “America’s per capita cheese consumption has more than doubled since the government began keeping track in 1975, to about 42 pounds a year—more than all the butter, ice cream and yogurt combined.”

When it comes to dairy products, cheese is the big cheese. As milk consumption has declined, cheese eating has accelerated. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), rising demand for cheese has become “one of the most important forces shaping the U.S. dairy industry.”

The popularity of cheese owes much to the pandemic, according to Bloomberg’s Peng. It may be that working from home improved proximity to refrigerators or that efforts to recreate favorite restaurant meals elevated demand for cheesy goodness.

Either way, the global market for cheese is growing, and the cheese snack market is expected to expand “at a compound annual growth rate of 6.5 [percent] through 2034,” reported Corey Geiger, Abbi Prins and Billy Roberts for the CoBank Knowledge Exchange. According to one company’s survey, the most-produced, top-selling, and most widely eaten cheeses in the U.S. include:

• Cheddar
• Mozzarella
• Parmesan
• American
• Cream cheese.

That list did not include cottage cheese, which has been having a moment on social media. “People have taken to [a social media site] to show how cottage cheese can be used in better-for-you recipes, with creative dishes like viral cottage cheese flatbread and ice cream. At-home followers looking to recreate these recipes have helped cottage cheese boost dairy sales,” reported Gabriela Barkho of Modern Retail. “According to Circana data from May, cottage cheese sales were up 13.5 [percent] year-over-year, up to $1.33 billion.”

What’s your favorite cheese?

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