Market Conditions
With inventory still dripping on and numbers far below what had been "normal trending" prior to Covid, the market is still holding in a sellers market in most price points. While there are talks of some interest rate lowering, there is not expectation of significant rate drops in 2024.
There is a marginal price increase expected for Spring Market as low inventory continues. The days of double digit increase over asking are generally over. Multiple offers are still happening with certain properties, particularly those checking coveted boxes, but they also tend to generally be more contained. The market has still been up, but settling down for over a year and a half now. I have gotten multiple buyers into under ask deals.
If you are looking for homes in the $1,000,000+ price point, there are a generous amount of options on the market. If you are looking $500,000 and below, it is significantly tighter, but the following municipalities currently have the most options, with Hyde Park in the lead. Lagrange, City and Town of Poughkeepsie, Pleasant Valley and Wappingers. With less, but still more than others: Beacon, Beekman, E. Fishkill and Fishkill. Happy Hunting! Call me if you're looking for a partner or have questions on your specific town or town(s) of interest.
The market generally slows in July and August in our area. We may see heightened activity in July this year if interest rates take a tick down. The Fall Market, as shared in the February edition of The Brick is expected to be slow as is historically the case in election years. If interested in selling, there is little doubt leveraging Spring Market with its continued low inventory could prove fruitful for those with realistic expectations. It is not recommended, however, to "test" (and likely lose) the market with overpricing. We are in a "we know what is now" window.
The end of June tends to realize increased price reductions from overpriced sellers during Spring Market that want to sell by latest August. For that reason, aiming for early June if planning to come on in later Spring Market should be goal rather than pushing further into June between reductions, graduations and summer kick off travel.
April really is a good month if ready. My winter clients did very well without leaves on the trees. Waiting for leaves is waiting for increased competition. Right now, inventory is still super tight. Properties that are priced solid and effectively marketed have been moving swiftly. Reach out for a realistic home valuation and tips on how to best prepare for sale.
Historic lows in inventory saw numbers for active listings at one point in the 300 range for single family detached in Dutchess County, a whopping 70% below "normal trending" inventory. Dutchess County is out of that space with current active and "coming soon" single family detached listings at 478 as of April 7, 2024 per HGAR/OneKey MLS. It's still painfully low, but improving.
In February, home prices rose at nearly double the month to month nationwide versus normal prior to Covid 19 disruption. At the same time, the annual growth has overall slowed with a contained trend expected to continue for the rest of this year, per CoreLogic. There are pockets throughout the country that have moved into a buyers market.
Lacking full trust in HGAR/OneKey MLS reporting as I caught very real errors that have yet to be fixed, I have reverted back to generating my own custom market momentum reports. I am not certain, but hopeful, the median price per county info HGAR/OneKey noted is accurate. I am sharing with trepidation, but this piece doesn't render on my reports as I always had it accurate with Mid Hudson, but here are median prices February YOY, per HGAR/OneKeyMLS:
Dutchess +12.2%($448,500), Orange +5%($420,000), Putnam +4.2% ($468,750), Ulster +10.3% ($400,000) and Westchester +13.9% ($831,250) .
FIVE HIGHEST PRICED* ACTIVE RESIDENCES PER COUNTY GOES TO...
Dutchess County - Click Here
Orange County - Click Here
Putnam County - Click Here
Ulster County - Click Here
Westchester County - Click Here
*SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED, PER HGAR/ONEKEY MLS
PRICE POINTS CURRENTLY IN A BUYERS MARKET IN DUTCHESS COUNTY
Dutchess County is by example in this analysis. There is a common theme - the $1,000,000+ space has moved into saturation in many municipalities in Dutchess County. Out of 478 current active single family detached listings as of April 7, 2024 in Dutchess County, 88 are $1,000,000+. Let's put it another way: 10 out of 22 municipalities in Dutchess County currently have more "active" and "coming soon" single family detached listings $1,000,000+ than any other price point in its respective municipality. Nearly half! That appears to be translating to saturation in certain municipalities as noted below.
Current Buyers Market Conditions:
Amenia
$1,000,000+ (currently straddling buyers market at 7.2 mo
Beacon - Important to note: Current new construction inventory skews numbers upward. If you're looking to buy in these price points, Beacon could be a good check.
$750,000-$800,000 - current 42 month absorption rate
$800,000-$900,000 -current 12 months absorption rate
$1,000,000+ - currently 36 month absorption rate
Dover
$1,000,000+ - current 12 month absorption rate
East Fishkill
$900,000-$1,000,000 - current 12 month absorption rate
Fishkill
$750,000-$800,000 - current 18 month absorption rate
Hyde Park -Important to note: Current new construction inventory skews numbers upward. If you're in looking to buy in these price ranges, Hyde Park could be a good check:
$550,000-$600,000 - current 48 month absorption rate
$600,000-$700,000 - current 12 month absorption rate
$700,000-$750,000 - current 26 month absorption rate
$750,000-$800,000 - current 120 month absorption rate
$1,000,000+ - current 12 month absorption rate
Lagrange:
$750,000-$800,000 - 24 month absorption rate
Milan:
$600,000-$650,000 - current 8 month absorption rate
$1,000,000+ - current 24 month absorption rate
Northeast:
$1,000,000+ - current 12 month absorption rate
Pawling:
$450,000-$500,000 - current 12 month absorption rate
$750,000-$800,000 - current 8 month absorption rate
$1,000,000+ - current 12 month absorption rate
Pleasant Valley
$800,000-$900,000 - current 24 month absorption rate)
$1,000,000+ - current 72 month absorption rate not driven by new construction. OUCH!!!
Luxury Buyers - could find some negotiating here as there are "sitters" to have this absorption rate.
Town of Poughkeepsie:
$1,000,000+ - current 24 month absorption rate
Red Hook:
$650,000-$700,000 - teetering between neutral and buyers at 7.2 month absorption rate
$750,000-$800,000 - current 12 month absorption rate
Rhinebeck
$900,000-$1,000,000 - current 12 month absorption rate
Stanford
$550,000-$600,000 -current 18 month absorption rate
$750,000-$800,000 -current 12 month absorption rate
Unionvale
$700,000-$750,000
Washington (another OUCH!)
$1,000,000+ - current 26 month absorption rate
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