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PDF | Insights | Week of Jul 21 2025

Quote of the Week

“The continued growth of profits will be enough to prevent a contraction of payrolls.”

- John Lonski, president, The Lonski Group (WSJ).

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Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (Last of a Series)

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The Force Awakens – Churchill 2Q Private Equity Survey (Part Two)

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In response to our Reflections on Wimbledon two weeks ago, a long-time Lead Left reader informed us that the famed tournament is expanding. While we had opined “no one is building new grass courts,” he learned that the All-England Club has purchased an adjacent 100-acre golf course. “Subject to zoning approvals,” he wrote, “plans include 39 new grass courts, a 9,000-capacity stadium court and lots of corporate hospitality.” Thanks, dear reader: 15-love. 


While our comment was meant generally, this news supports our thesis that growth and sophistication is coming to the game, both tennis and asset management. Putting points on the board remains necessary to win, and reducing mistakes puts you in the best position to do that. 


Back to our survey results, 164 private equity executives revealed new confidence in both their deal activity and returns. Along with expectations that M&A will see restoration over the next twelve months to normalized levels, is the resumption of exits from portfolio companies. Most GPs see two portfolio exits within the next year, with over 33% predicting three exits or more.


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Mid-Year 2025 Private Equity Survey



Learn more about private equity leaders’ perspectives on today’s market environment and how they’re influencing investment decisions.

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Private Capital Call Podcast



EP11: Marcel Schindler, StepStone’s Head of Private Debt, on the evolving private credit landscape.

Chart of the Week

Exit Ramp

The number of PE exits slumped 1Q after last year’s steady improvement.  

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Source: Preqin Pro

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

Second-Busiest Day of Leveraged Loan Launches Brings Wave of Repricings

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Following the most active single day of 2025 and the second busiest on record, the US leveraged loan market saw $61.7b in transactions launched to investors on Monday, July 21. By Wednesday, the weekly total had surpassed $75.7b, setting a new high for the year. With $160.8b launched month-to-date, July marks the most active month for syndications since January's $206.7b and ranks as the seventh busiest month for primary market activity since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2013.

Contacts: Vincent Daigger, Lara Wieczezynski/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

2025 sees fundraising extremes

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Our data shows the brakes have been slammed by investors after a fast start to the year for those raising fresh capital. 

‘Volatile’ is the word frequently being used to describe the economic and political backdrop to investing today. For private debt managers, that same volatility is being seen on the fundraising front...

Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Unitranche spreads hover around

recent market lows

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The most recent quarter was marked by intense competition among direct lenders and lower than hope for deal flow. In turn, spreads continued to hover around recent lows despite sporadic wider market volatility...

Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Carveouts/divestitures as a share of all PE buyouts by quarter

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Carve-out transactions are running at 10.6% of all buyout deals in 2025, which is comfortably above the five-year average of 8.7% and last year’s 10.1%...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch Ratings Completes Peer Review

of 12 US BDCs

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Learn more



Fitch Ratings has completed a peer review of 12 U.S. business development companies (BDCs). Fitch has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) on 10 issuers and completed two Review – No Actions. The Rating Outlooks for Oaktree Specialty Lending Corp. and Blackrock TCP Capital Corp. remain Negative, while all other Outlooks remain Stable...


Contact: Brian Harris / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average Minimum Day-One Capped Basket Capacity, YoY

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.8% as of 21 July) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 6.8% as of 21 July, down from its one-year peak of 8.5% on 7 April), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...

Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

July Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.