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Commission scientists, led by Water Resources Modeler Can Liu, P.H., recently completed an assessment of how changing climatic conditions may impact the water resources of the Susquehanna River Basin in the coming decades. Studying these projections and their impact on future hydrologic extremes will enhance flood and drought planning and climate resilience throughout the basin.
The assessment investigated how future precipitation and temperature are projected to vary spatially and seasonally compared to baseline data. While annual precipitation is expected to increase throughout the basin, some climate models project a contrasting trend of decreased rainfall during July-October, indicating potential seasonal drought risk. All climate models project increases in both daily maximum and minimum temperatures through year 2100.
Projected temperature increases may lead to broad declines in snowstorm frequency, snowpack accumulation, and snow season length. Faced with predicted increases in winter and spring precipitation, the Commission will continue to promote actions aimed at enhanced stormwater management and restoration and protection of floodplains and riparian buffers.
It is equally important to recognize that water supply may increasingly encounter challenges during low flow months, particularly in areas with high demand, during periods of decreased precipitation, and for systems without redundancy. The modeled forecasts emphasize the importance of the Commission's ongoing focus on water availability, sustainable allocations, water conservation, reservoir operations, and groundwater recharge to ensure adequate water supply. The combined impacts of altered precipitation patterns and rising temperatures may increase the frequency and intensity of both flooding and drought events.
Water quality could be downgraded by warming streams, shifting fish communities, exacerbating invasive species spread, and increasing the frequency and intensity of harmful algal blooms. These changes threaten the health and biodiversity of aquatic ecosystems and could impact drinking water supplies and recreation. Strengthening warning systems and improving stormwater, reservoir, and groundwater management are crucial for building climate resilience.
More on the assessment including methodology, interactive maps, plots and charts can be found on our website.
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