Archives| PDF | Research | Week of Mar 9, 2020
“You can cut rates to zero and the virus could continue to spread.” 
– Amy Kong, chief investment officer, Barrett Asset Management.
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The Great Stay-In (First of a Series)
In our January 8th 2020 commentary, “Of Bubbles and Gum” , we reviewed credit market conditions in the wake of the assasination of Iranian General Suleimani. Could this be the exogenous factor that sparks a Middle East war, and triggers a recession? Or will it fade quickly like so many other candidates?

We concluded with the following observation: “Whether the Fed can continue mainlining enough liquidity all year to overcome any exogenous risks – bubbles or stickier stuff – remains to be seen.”

Little did we know, and as happens with these things, no one predicted, that the risk had already surfaced four weeks earlier. Not from mortgages, oil, high-tech, or leveraged loans, but a lethal virus originating in a seafood market in Wuhan, China...
Readers' Say
This Week’s Question
Which industry will be least affected by COVID-19?
(*All responses are confidential.)
Specialized industrials
Information Technology
Last Week's Results
What will U.S. GDP growth rate be in 2020?
Chart of the Week
Pick Up VIX
The VIX index of volatility hit a post-recession high in the 40’s this week amid coronavirus concerns.
Source: CBOE (The New York Times)
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Stat of the Week
 Loan Stats at a Glance 
PDI Picks
Is this the macro event that will drive distressed?
With Covid-19 spreading to more countries around the world, the climate for businesses is changing fast...
Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis
Unitranche in price discovery mode, 
likely moving back over 600bp
Amid falling Libor and more volatile pricing conditions in the syndicated market, unitranche pricing is moving higher after hitting rock bottom levels in 4Q19. So far in 1Q20, the average blended spread on a unitranche is 590bp...
Contact:   Fran Beyers / Refinitiv LPC
The Pulse of Private Equity
Coronavirus and private equity
Our 2020 PE predictions did not include a potentially global pandemic, which continues to roil the markets. It’s impossible to know where things will go from here—at least as panics go, this brings flashbacks of 2008 but feels fundamentally different...
Contact:   Alex Lykken / PitchBook
High-Yield Bond Statistics
Weekly fund flows source:  Lipper
DL Deals: News & Analysis
February new issues soften;
March is a guessing game
February’s tally of direct lending loans softened to 57, from 73 in January, according to Direct Lending Deals. The decreased flow was mainly due to...
Covenant Trends 
Average EBITDA Adjustment Cap for Synergies &
Cost Savings (Sponsored vs. Non-Sponsored)
Private Debt Intelligence
The Rise of Asian Private Debt
A growing middle class in Asia has inflated demand for private debt. This swelling middle class has in turn created growth in the SME market, which has led to robust fundraising...
Debtwire Middle-Market
HY bond and leveraged loan volatility surges 
in face of coronavirus fears
Source: Debtwire Par, Markit, ICE BofA
Contact:  Colm (CJ) Doherty / Debtwire  
Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance
Select Deals in the Market
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