THE LOCATION STRATEGY TOP 10

HAVE A PROJECT SOMEWHERE IN TEXAS?

WE'VE PROBABLY BEEN THERE.

IF YOU'RE NEW TO OUR TOP 10, WELCOME. WE SEND OUT THE TOP 10 DATA CHARTS WE SEE EACH WEEK WE THINK OUR CLIENTS SHOULD KNOW ABOUT. WE HOPE YOU WILL ENJOY IT, AND WE NEVER GIVE/SELL OUR LIST TO ANYONE. AT THE END WE HAVE A LISTING OF AVAILBLE HOMEBUILDING AND REAL ESTATE JOBS IN YOUR AREA.

HAVE REASON TO THINK MAYBE YOUR EMAIL MAY SUDDENLY CHANGE? WANT TO KEEP RECEIVING OUR NEWSLETTER? CLICK HERE TO SEND US YOUR PERSONAL EMAIL AND WE'LL KEEP YOU ON THE LIST. AND AS ALWAYS, WE DON'T GIVE OUR EMAIL LIST TO ANYONE.

MARK YOUR CALENDAR

Location Strategy has just committed to events with Bisnow in Houston and Dallas in 2023. Stay tuned for more details.

HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND IMBALANCE

One of the key points of our thesis is that we are in a long-term supply-demand imbalance and are decimating the housing industry to control the costs this imbalance has caused - and will emerge from the current recession to find the very same pricing conditions we had in 2021-2022. The supply-demand imbalance in housing is as worse as its been since the 1970s.

HOMEOWNERSHIP AMONG YOUNG AMERICANS

Home ownership rates among young Americans continues to fall. Single family rentals are not popular because that's what people want - it provides a decent substitute for what they want.

NEW HOME SALES CONTINUE TO FALL

The MBA new home sales purchase index shows new home sales have fallen to 2013-2014 levels nationally.

WITH REAL HOME PRICES, CPI WOULD BE 2.5%

This week we located a transcript of the Nov 1-2 FOMC meetings, where it was revealed: the Fed knows its housing price data lags the actual market:

WE ARE ALREADY IN A RECESSION

S&P Global market intelligence believes we are already in a recession and its indicators suggest a 1% decline in economic activity.  This goes along with the pre-2022 definition of a recession which is two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.

THIS IMPLIES 500 BP OF RATE CUTS

Another sign of recession is an inverted yield curve. Here's a great discussion of the yield curve problems we're having now, which apparently are a combination of:

• The Fed overly relying on YOY growth, dismissing recent declines as "just one month's data"
• Pivoting to high services inflation as justification for rate increases, ignoring the fact that rents (e.g. housing costs) are 34% of services inflation - and again based on an indicator without any actual transactional basis.

Based on historical recessions, the current level of yield curve inversion would imply 500 basis points of rate cuts at the next meeting.  Such a cut in rates does not appear to be forthcoming.

WHO DO YOU BELIEVE: ME OR YOUR LYING EYES?

Last week the President again touted strong job and wage growth. Jerome Powell even announced that wage growth was too high, accelerating at 5.1% year over year.

We covered our thoughts on employment growth last week and the gap between the household and establishment survey. This week we see some indication that payroll reversion bias forecasts downward revision on past employment reports:

We've seen only one metric that suggests wages could be going up: the wage gap between job stayers and job switchers. If employees can make significant gains in moving, that suggests demand for new workers is high.

OVERTIME HOURS FELL

SELF-EMPLOYMENT FELL

TEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT HAS PEAKED

Consumer debt is increasing, and buys a lot less than it used to.

As consumer debt reached record peaks, personal savings reached historic lows: 

JOBS!

DALLAS

• Land Development Manager
• Land Project Manager
• Land Development Project Manager
• EV Real Estate Portfolio Manager
• Real Estate Development Manager

HOUSTON

• NEW! Real Estate Director
• Development Manager
• Forward planner
• Division manager
• Land Superintendent - Build To Rent
• Land Development Project Manager