THE LOCATION STRATEGY TOP 10 CHARTBOOK

A QUICK REVIEW OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR HOUSING.

Yesterday's job report added 378,000 jobs in April - the second highest addition ever, only behind last October. You'll remember we ran a series the on problems with the BLS job data adding jobs that were basically statistical artifacts.

This job report would represent the 13th consecutive report that exceeded expectations. The previous record going back to 2000 was 5. So what's more likely? That we've had 13 months in a row of expectation-breaking jobs growth, or that we are continuing to experience problems with the jobs data post-COVID?

The chart below gives a better picture of where job growth may be heading: it shows the relationship between C&I lending and job growth, and both are headed downward. Until we get better definition on what's coming out of the BLS, I would continue to regard job growth with a huge grain of salt.

Listings of homes for sale are falling quickly and may soon dip below last year’s levels. New listings are down 22.4% vs. 2022.

Apartment markets are loosening, even as rents continue to climb.

Construction is usually among the first sectors to suffer job losses when rates rise--and so far, hiring is strong.

We estimate that excess savings were around $870bn at the end of March. The slowing in the rundown of excess savings is consistent with our view of a relatively benign downturn.

The federal government missed out on locking in low long-term rates in recent years, causing interest payments to surge.

Hinting at recovery, visits to coffee shops are up 

Scott Davis

LOCATION STRATEGY, LLC

1302 Waugh Drive #178

Houston, Texas 77019

832.304.DIRT (3478)

www.locationstrategyllc.com