The household survey of employment jumped by 577,000 jobs in March - but there remains a gap of almost 1.5 million jobs between the non-farm payroll reporting and the household survey.
"Immigration is a key reason the labor market is gradually moving from very overheated to less overheated...high immigration is helpful for the Fed as it tries to cool down the labor market and slow down inflation."
The number of multiple jobholders continues to climb.
Wage growth in upper income ranges is falling - high wage growth for high earners is what has sustained much of the market since the beginning of the pandemic.
Why have we focused on the banking situation which largely effects commercial real estate? One reason is that if a bubble bursts in CRE, it’s likely to shave 0.75% points off GDP for each of the next three years.
Optimal Blue’s projection for home prices (via the AEI Housing Center) shows a year-over-year decline in May, with prices finishing flat on a year-over-year basis for 2023. The forecast calls for a 3% price appreciation next year.
"Signs of improvement in housing. Mortgage purchase applications rose 7.8% for the week ending April 7, the fifth increase in the last six weeks. Prices appear to have bottomed too with the average loan size on purchase loans rising steadily all year."
The average loan size has been rising.
Mortgage rate locks for second homes are down 52% this year.
Between 2007 and 2021, the number of senior (65+ years old) households grew by 51.2%, increasing from 22.7 million to 34.3 million. Meanwhile, the number of non-senior households rose by a tepid 4.4%
As more Baby Boomers have reached retirement age, seniors now account for a larger share of American households. Through 2021, seniors made up more than a quarter (26.9%) of all households — spiking 6.6 percentage points since 2007.
