THE LOCATION STRATEGY TOP 10 CHARTBOOK

A QUICK REVIEW OF MARKET CONDITIONS FOR HOUSING.

Recession probability model from [New York Fed] continues to move up and is now at highest since 1982.

Here are the quarterly forecasts.

March new home sales +9.6% vs. -1.3% est. & -3.9% prior (rev down from +1.1%) … strongest month since August 2022; in level terms (blue), sales now up by 26% from recent trough."

Total home sales, though, are far below seasonal trends.

RECORD MORTGAGE PAYMENT REQUIRED TO BUY THE MEDIAN PRICED HOME

"The mortgage payment needed to buy the median priced home for sale in the US has moved up to $2,555, a new all-time high."

This is why mortgage applications and rate locks - and pending sales have fallen to record lows.

"S&P CoreLogic (Case-Shiller) home price index unexpectedly rose (0.06% MoM) in February (the latest data released today), which slowed the annual 20-City Composite price index growth to just 0.36% YoY...that is the slowest YoY growth since May 2012."

"Since the early years of the Great Depression, when the US banking system collapsed, broadly defined bank deposits have never fallen anything like as fast as they are at present."

Who is receiving unemployment benefits? Upper income categories with increasing numbers of unemployment recipients may suggest trouble ahead for higher priced products.

Illinois, New York and California continued their streak as the nation’s biggest losers of residents and their wealth to other states, according to an analysis of newly-released Internal Revenue Service migration data. Texas and Florida continued to be the nation’s big winners.

The latest IRS state-by-state migration data is based on tax returns filed in 2020 and 2021, covering taxpayers (tax filers and their dependents) who moved from one state to another between 2019 and 2020 (see appendix for changes in our reporting methodology). 

Florida, the nation’s perennial winner, gained in 2020 the most net people, 256,000, and the most net Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), $39 billion. Texas followed with a gain of 175,000 people and $10.9 billion in AGI. In contrast, states like California, New York and Illinois once again experienced some of the nation’s biggest losses. California lost more people than any other state, with more than 332,000 net movers taking $29 billion to other states.

The top reasons Americans moved in 2022 were to improve their quality of life (24%), live in a cheaper area (23%), and get a bigger place (22%). 75% of Americans have regrets about their move, including wishing they had never moved at all (20%) or had chosen a bigger home (20%). 25% of Americans moved from cities to suburbs, and 31% of rural residents moved to suburban areas. 40% of Americans, however, would prefer to live in a city if money were no object. 61% of Americans Moved Fewer than 20 Miles Away

Scott Davis

LOCATION STRATEGY, LLC

1302 Waugh Drive #178

Houston, Texas 77019

832.304.DIRT (3478)

www.locationstrategyllc.com