Week of 4/7/2022

Welcome to the 2nd quarter of the 22nd second year of the 21st Century! March saw the S&P 500 break its 2-month losing streak for returns. Bonds continued to feel the pressure of expected continued rate increases. Inflation and the war in Ukraine continue to affect markets negatively, though the economy continues to expand. We’ll talk more next week about other economic factors that you are probably hearing about.

The Census Bureau has released extensive data from the 1950 census. Among the interesting information is this: The Census data shows that of the nation's 10 largest cities in 1950, only New York City and Los Angeles went on to have larger populations in 2020. The other eight -- Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore, Cleveland, St Louis, Washington, D.C., and Boston -- all saw their populations fall in the following seven decades. Brad McMillan provides a helpful update on the war in Ukraine and the economic impact (webinar available on demand). When you return your rental car, make sure you get a receipt. Otherwise, you might end up with a warrant for grand theft auto. The European Space Agency has released the highest resolution image of the Sun ever produced. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the average US single family home has appreciated at least 10% in 4 of the last 30 years (1992-2021). 2004, 2005, 2020 and 2021 are the years in question. Will 2022 join them?

Ask the Joes® (and Cale) looks at a prevalent question: Where have the workers gone A: JP Morgan’s David Kelly explains that it is not that people don’t want to work. Is that a contributor? Possibly, but it ignores other important factors: There are fewer workers, but there is also higher demand for labor. An aging population means people leave the workforce. He sees this as the most significant reason for the demand/supply imbalance. Reduced levels of immigration in the last 2 years mean as many as 1.4 million fewer workers. Wage increases may incentivize people to join/rejoin the workforce. Demand may also decline as we settle into new patterns of consumption, reducing labor needs. For the near-term, we can expect the tight labor market to continue, which will keep inflation in the forefront.

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