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PDF | Research | Week of March 18, 2024

Quote of the Week

“Zero interest rates were a sign of ill-health of the economy. Rates were low because economies were really struggling. Good riddance.”

– Karen Ward, chief markets strategist, Europe, JP Morgan Asset Management. 

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The New Order: Leverage Finance in an Asset Management World (First of a Series)

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The New Order: Leverage Finance in an Asset Management World (Fourth of a Series)

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Now that the liquid loan market is opening, albeit with mostly refinancings, larger issuers have more choices. This is actually a good and natural thing. For those companies willing to go through the ratings and syndication processes in the bank market, terms can be competitive. 


Because CLO equity investors benefit from much higher structural leverage, BSL pricing can be cheaper than private debt. This illiquidity premium (or liquidity discount) is historically 100-300 bps, depending on ratings. For quality borrowers, particularly in the tech space, leverage can also be higher. And of course, covenant-lite is the standard for syndicated loans. 


The paths borrowers can take depend on a number of factors. Because market and economic conditions have moved to risk-on, liquid loan buyers are positioned to hold single-B, even weak single-B, assets. Retail funds are now seeing cash inflows, with $1.2 billion garnered over the past five weeks, according to Morningstar Direct...

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 4: Edward Goldstein, Partner and CIO of Coller Credit Secondaries

"Secondary market is at a stage where it’s starting to show a level of consistency in transaction volume." - Edward Goldstein

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Chart of the Week

Refi Madness

The reversal of refinancings between direct lenders and the liquid market is dramatic.

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Source: PitchBook LCD

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

LPs follow the pack

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Our research indicates investors are keeping faith with mainstream strategies – at least for now.

Conservatism appears to be the driving force for many investors in private debt, our LP Perspectives 2024 Study suggests. 


When it comes to fund strategy, direct lending has long been the most favoured option for investors – and nothing in our latest test of opinion suggests that is likely to change any time soon...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Daily Analytic Survey: What is your expectation for middle market M&A lending in 2Q24 relative to 1Q24?

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According to preliminary results from LSEG LPC's quarterly middle market lender outlook survey, a large majority, nearly 70%, of respondents think that there will be a moderate increase in M&A activity in 2Q24, compared to 1Q24...

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Contact: David Puchowski / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Median PE middle-market EV/EBITDA multiples

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Both EV/EBITDA and EV/revenue multiples tell a similar story for middle markets: Valuations reached their apex in 2021 and have declined sharply ever since...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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What Investors Want to Know: Middle Market CLO Manager Assessment Considerations

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Given the increased interest and overall expansion of the private credit sector, Fitch Ratings highlights key elements of its assessment of the capabilities of middle market (MM) CLO managers that are different (due to relevance) from that of a broadly syndicated loan (BSL) CLO manager...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Deals with 75+ bps MFN

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.7% as of 15 March, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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LPs target private debt for reliable income streams

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Private debt investments provide LPs with reliable income streams through contractual repayments, which are particularly attractive in an uncertain macroeconomic environment. Portfolio diversification and high-risk adjusted returns were the second most common reasons cited by investors surveyed by Preqin for allocating to private debt...

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Contact: William Bennett-Lynch Preqin

March Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.